This week, we explore whether, somehow, this could be Joel Embiid's year, an unheralded aspect of Anthony Davis' offense, a lineup tweak the might have doomed the Rockets' late-season push and the absolute sweetest steals in the NBA.
Jump to Lowe's Things:
How Embiid shifts the East | Where AD is underrated
OKC diversifying just in time | What cost the Rockets
Something nice in Portland | Artful patience from Bogie
Hey, Celtics and Bucks: Feed the bigs!| The coolest NBA steals |
Charlotte's defense ... oof
1. Can this, improbably, be Joel Embiid's moment?
It's a little forgiving to label Embiid the most star-crossed superstar in recent NBA history, but only a little.
He is not blameless in the Philadelphia 76ers' near decade of early postseason heartbreak. He has underperformed his regular-season numbers by even more than you'd expect given the quality of opposition. He has had stinkers in the highest-leverage moments: a 15-point borderline no-show in Game 7 against the Boston Celtics last season; 20 points on 7-of-24 shooting as the Sixers folded in Game 6 against the Miami Heat the year before; 16 total turnovers in Game 6 and 7 losses against the Atlanta Hawks in 2021.
Ten years after the Sixers selected him at No. 3, we have yet to see the signature Embiid playoff run. But he has suffered so many ill-timed injuries to so many body parts. Superstar teammates have let him down and then bolted. The organization around him has committed salacious acts of self-sabotage.
Through it all, Embiid developed into an MVP and one of the most dominant scorers ever -- a majestic figure, lording over the game from the elbows. And just when it seemed his tormented franchise had achieved stability -- with Tyrese Maxey as the contented, reliable co-star Ben Simmons, Markelle Fultz and James Harden could not and would not be -- Embiid suffered another knee injury.
The Sixers fell from near the top of the East to No. 8 -- play-in hell. Embiid's return date was uncertain. It appeared to be a wasted season as Embiid turned 30. How many more wasted seasons until it would be too late?
But Embiid returned Tuesday and looked good in helping Philadelphia to a critical win over the Oklahoma City Thunder without Maxey. The Brooklyn Nets did Philly a favor the next night, upsetting the No. 6 Indiana Pacers. On Thursday, Embiid and Maxey combined for 76 points in Philly's win over the No. 7 Heat and the superstar that got away -- Jimmy Butler. The win evened their season series at 2-2, although Miami still holds the tiebreaker for now. (The Pacers also have the tiebreaker over Philly.) Suddenly, the Sixers are a half-game behind Miami and one game behind Indiana for the No. 6. The Sixers' remaining schedule is mostly a breeze.
That No. 6 seed might be the most pivotal prize amid all the mini races across the standings. It would pit Philadelphia against a vulnerable favorite and slot it opposite Boston.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are 11-15 in their past 26 games, searching for the pace and fight that powered their midseason hot streak -- and relearning double-big alignments with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. Donovan Mitchell is recovering from injury.
Julius Randle's season-ending shoulder injury is a crushing blow for the New York Knicks. The healthy Knicks -- with Randle, OG Anunoby and their revamped bench -- rivaled the Milwaukee Bucks as the most dangerous threat to Boston. If Anunoby returns from an elbow injury and the brackets break the right way, the Knicks still have some chance of making the conference finals. They have outscored opponents by 10 points per 100 possessions when Jalen Brunson plays without Randle -- and a monstrous 32 points per 100 possessions in about 160 minutes with Brunson and Anunoby on the floor and Randle resting, per Cleaning The Glass data.
With Brunson controlling the ball, Anunoby's 3-and-D skill set might be more valuable to these Knicks than Randle's shoulder-checking one-on-one game. Randle has shot a ghastly 34% in 15 career playoff games. But against the best defenses, you need as many shot creators as possible. Without Randle, New York's ceiling is lower.
The Orlando Magic are a fierce defensive team, but they rank 23rd in points per possession and have very little postseason experience. They could win some first-round matchups -- their defense is that stingy, their spirit that strong -- but the Sixers would not fear them.
Even if the Sixers remain No. 7 or No. 8, a win in their play-in opener would keep them out of the Celtics' side of the bracket -- and likely set them up against the Bucks. Don't overreact to Milwaukee's losses this week to the hapless Washington Wizards and Memphis Grizzlies. Damian Lillard missed both games; Khris Middleton missed one.
The Bucks are plus-15.8 points per 100 possessions with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Middleton, Lillard and Brook Lopez on the floor. They are the East's biggest threat to Boston. They would be favored over the Sixers.
It's unclear whether Philly will ever again have the starting five that tore the league apart for all of 14 games: Maxey, Embiid, Designated Entry Passer Nicolas Batum, De'Anthony Melton and Tobias Harris. Melton has barely played since Dec. 30 because of back issues. With Embiid's status murky and their cap sheet clean, the Sixers mostly kept their powder dry at the trade deadline.
They did add Kyle Lowry and Buddy Hield -- a shooter who should thrive orbiting Embiid. (The Hield-Maxey backcourt would require a lot of support on defense.) Kelly Oubre Jr. has caught fire. Paul Reed is a solid backup to Embiid.
There is a pathway for Philly to salvage this season. Going forward, it is armed with max-level cap space. The Sixers would leap at the chance to use it on Paul George, sources said. George has yet to sign an extension with the LA Clippers and could become an unrestricted free agent in July if he forgoes that extension.