The idea of prospect comparisons ahead of the 2023 NBA draft is always a controversial flawed exercise: few players ever reach the high end of their ceiling, and those who bust tend to have floors well below even what modest expectations can be set. Yet, NBA executives and talent evaluators make them yearly anyway as they attempt to contextualize why a prospect may or may not succeed in the league.
Comparisons are useful for just that: providing context, if done responsibly. Comps can help us understand what type of role a player might fill, what type of impact he might have, and what the downside could be if he doesn't pan out as hoped. There are very few easy one-to-one through lines, but the thought process can still be helpful nonetheless.
With that modest goal in mind and as Thursday's draft (8 p.m. ET, ESPN, ABC and ESPN the App) draws near, draft expert Jeremy Woo came up with high-end and low-end comparisons for each prospect currently projected in the lottery of our last mock draft.
Victor Wembanyama | Forward | Metropolitans 92
High-end comp: Kevin Durant on offense, Kevin Garnett on defense
Low-end comp: Taller Anthony Davis
The sky's the limit for Wembanyama, who has truly earned his lofty, all-time prospect status. The unique nature of his frame and skill set makes it difficult to draw comparisons, but the potential for him to become a supersized shot creator (Durant) who is also a game-wrecking interior defender (Garnett) is where the excitement lies. Plus, Wembanyama doesn't have to quite reach the heights of either player in order to be a perennial All-Star.
As far as the realistic downside, I think it's more attached to Wembanyama's capacity to stay healthy than any chance his basketball talent fails him. That line of thought is how I landed on Davis, who evolved to play a similar role as an offensive hub and stellar defender. He has missed plenty of time with injuries over the course of his career but still remains a game-changing, All-Star-level talent when available. Simply, Wembanyama is so gifted that you don't think twice about that risk.
Brandon Miller | Forward | Alabama
High-end comp: Brandon Ingram
Low-end comp: Marvin Williams
Miller fits the valuable tall, shot-creating wing prototype that teams tend to covet in the draft. His size, shooting ability and flashes of playmaking for teammates give him a chance to become an excellent offensive option in the long run. NBA teams have thrown out names such as Ingram and Paul George as optimistic comparisons. The flip side is that Miller isn't exceptionally athletic or quick, relying more on the threat of his jumper to create rather than putting tons of pressure on the rim -- a trend that could keep him from scratching a star ceiling. He offers more than enough skill and shot-making to have a long NBA career even if that doesn't happen.
Scoot Henderson | Guard | G League Ignite
High-end comp: De'Aaron Fox
Low-end comp: Collin Sexton
Henderson's physical gifts and downhill-oriented style of playmaking give him a chance to evolve into a high-octane, Fox-like lead guard as he settles in and expands his game. He relies on pressuring the paint and is comfortable scoring in the midrange, but to truly hit his ceiling, Henderson's 3-point shooting will have to become more reliable, and he'll have to begin making more advanced reads in the half court. He also has the ability to be a positive defender in time. While it's certainly not a perfect comparison, if Henderson doesn't make those types of strides and develops into more of a scoring combo guard rather than a lead playmaker, you could see him find a Sexton-like role, where he's always broadly useful but not a franchise-caliber player, either.
Amen Thompson | Guard | Overtime Elite
High-end comp: Smaller Ben Simmons in a good way
Low-end comp: Smaller Ben Simmons in a bad way
Amen is a tricky player to draw comparisons for, due in part to the fact that he'll be one of the best athletes in the NBA from day one, but also because of the very short list of tall, playmaking guards who have survived in the modern game without a reliable jump shot. He's an anomaly one way or the other. While it's not a good one-to-one physical comparison, I think Amen's role will wind up somewhat similar to that of Simmons in Philadelphia. We can't just make the assumption he becomes a threatening jump shooter, but his passing ability and sheer athletic advantage creation might allow him to play lead guard in lineups where ample shooting is placed around him. He also has the tools to be a defensive menace if he wants to take his game in that direction. The risk is the holes in his game ultimately hamper him to the point where his lack of shooting and its implications for his role become a uniquely tricky fit in certain lineups and that he could wind up a tantalizing player without an obvious position or role to cling to.
Jarace Walker | Forward | Houston
High-end comp: Paul Millsap
Low-end comp: James Johnson
There's some broad comparison between Walker and Millsap, who was a rugged, highly productive two-way player in his prime years and a key piece of winning teams in Utah and Atlanta. While Walker doesn't project as a top offensive option, his feel for the game, underrated passing ability and physical tools should allow him to add value and make other players better, while supplying quite a bit on the defensive side. He's viewed as a pretty safe pick, but the risk would come in scenarios where Walker's individual scoring -- particularly his shooting -- won't make quite enough progress for him to become an above-average scorer, which could make him better suited as a role player.
Ausar Thompson | Guard | Overtime Elite
High-end comp: Andre Iguodala
Low-end comp: Taller Isaac Okoro
Ausar's physical gifts and tenacity give him a chance to become a valuable two-way perimeter player, capable of slowing down the opponent's top scorers and also chipping in buckets and making plays for teammates -- the type of role Iguodala grew into and excelled at for much of his career. The concerns are that he might never be an above-average catch-and-shoot player, which would greatly limit his utility away from the ball, and that his on-ball acumen might not quite evolve to cover for the shooting struggles, either. Thompson's defense and work ethic should keep him relevant, but there's a range of outcomes tied to how his offensive impact evolves.
Taylor Hendricks | Forward | UCF
High-end comp: Jaden McDaniels
Low-end comp: Maxi Kleber
Hendricks is a late-blooming forward who offers some unique versatility on both ends of the floor, capable of stretching the floor with some developing offensive skill and covering ground well on the defensive end thanks to his shot-blocking ability. He's probably not bulky enough to play center full-time, but he's easy to plug into a range of lineup types and offers a fairly safe floor due to the inherent value of what he does. We've seen McDaniels grow into similar value in Minnesota, toggling between forward spots and providing a mix of size, defense and scoring. It's possible Hendricks winds up closer to being a role player than a universal starter, but he does a range of things well and feels like a reliable pick as a result.
Anthony Black | Guard | Arkansas
High-end comp: Josh Giddey with better defense
Low-end comp: Evan Turner
As a jumbo point guard with excellent passing chops, great defensive instincts and plenty of untapped upside like Giddey, Black enters the NBA in an era where size, skill and feel are at a premium, particularly in perimeter players. The main questions are his jump shot and individual offense, with a range of outcomes that could turn him into a high-quality lead guard, render him more of a secondary off-ball playmaker and defender, or greatly limit his value and role opportunities away from the ball. He's an exciting development bet, but with some assembly required.
Cam Whitmore | Forward | Villanova
High-end comp: Miles Bridges
Low-end comp: Kenyon Martin Jr.
Whitmore's strong frame and explosive vertical game place him in the vein of someone such as Bridges, who at his best is a useful play finisher, shooter and defender who can create mismatches and advantages from multiple positions. His feel and playmaking ability, however, are a bit questionable, which might ultimately limit some of his high-end outcomes, and he'll need to learn to play with more consistent energy regardless. Whitmore's upside is strong, but it's possible he never quite blossoms as a go-to creative option, either.
Dereck Lively II | Center | Duke
High-end comp: Tyson Chandler
Low-end comp: Willie Cauley-Stein
Lively has the size and physical gifts to be a starting-caliber, rim-protecting center, but he has more work to do to establish the consistency to be that. He could be a solid starter for a long time by simply doing the work on the inside such as Chandler did during his career, or he could see his role fluctuate should he not be able to handle heavy minutes. When he's out there, he should be able to help anchor the defense, as there aren't many players with his size and mobility -- but what type of heights he can reach as he develops remains to be seen.
Gradey Dick | Guard | Kansas
High-end comp: Kyle Korver
Low-end comp: Corey Kispert
With a potentially elite catch-and-shoot skill set as his calling card, Dick is a pretty simple eval, expected to slot in on the wing and add value in relatively short order. He might not be more than an average positional defender, but he's already a dangerous shooter with his feet set and could certainly refine that skill into playing out of screens and forcing defenses to chase him around in addition to spacing the floor. While Dick might not wind up among the best shooters ever, Korver being one of them, his mix of skills and positional size should give him an easy path to utility as a baseline.
Kobe Bufkin | Guard | Michigan
High-end comp: Tyrese Maxey
Low-end comp: Delon Wright
Bufkin is an exciting player on a late-blooming trajectory, breaking out at Michigan and showcasing his ability to score from all over the floor and play on and off the ball. His upside likely hangs on how comfortable he gets creating with the ball in his hands, along with how much his shot improves, but he's still quite young for a sophomore and could be an excellent combo guard for a team to develop out of the gate. There's still a lot of development ahead, however, and if Bufkin doesn't evolve into a full-time point guard or reliable on-ball creator, a more modest role might be in order in the long run. He won't fall into the 20s the way Maxey did on his draft night, but he could take a similar, surprisingly quick pathway to NBA excellence if all goes well.
Jalen Hood-Schifino | Guard | Indiana
High-end comp: Markelle Fultz
Low-end comp: Iman Shumpert
Hood-Schifino's size, unselfishness and playmaking flashes have buoyed his stock in the pre-draft process, despite the fact his game is still raw in some ways. He'll need to fashion himself into a better shooter but might never be a great one, and will likely rely more on his size and strength to manipulate defenses, whether he winds up playing point guard or more of a combo role. He has the physical tools like Fultz to play in the league for a long time, but he has some work left to do to make a leap into starting-caliber territory.
Jordan Hawkins | Guard | UConn
High-end comp: More athletic JJ Redick
Low-end comp: Anthony Morrow
Hawkins will enter the league with an impressive capacity to shoot on the move and a chance to become one of the NBA's better shooting specialists with continued development. His balance and speed in getting to his shot and running off screens places pressure on defenses to chase him around at all times, and allows him to operate off the threat of those situations, a la Redick, who mastered it. While it's possible his lack of strength makes him a target defensively and he ultimately struggles to add to his game beyond the shot, Hawkins should become a useful specialist at the very least.
Jeremy Woo is an NBA analyst specializing in prospect evaluation and the draft. He was previously a staff writer and draft insider at Sports Illustrated.