The last two conquests of the Los Angeles Lakers' bubble championship meet three years later in an NBA Finals that feels both fitting and half unexpected -- the Miami Heat half.
This is the culmination of a five-year arc for the Denver Nuggets -- what appeared before Jamal Murray tore an ACL in April 2021 to be the classic NBA slow burn to ultimate triumph: progressive advances leading into gut-punch defeats until the young team is ready. Murray's absence interrupted that journey, but the Nuggets used that time to prepare for his return.
With Murray gone, Nikola Jokic scored more -- and realized he could do so without losing his innate basketball identity as one of the greatest playmakers ever. Michael Porter Jr. found his footing. Michael Malone continued to grow. The front office tweaked around the core, eyeing two-way players who feed off Jokic's preternatural passing and unlock defensive versatility. Provided good health, this was their window.
Even as Jimmy Butler, then just 30 and in his first season with Miami, helped the Heat push the Lakers to six games in those 2020 Finals, league insiders felt pangs of anxiety: Could this last? Six players remain from that Miami team: Butler, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, Gabe Vincent and Udonis Haslem. Vincent played 15 seconds in the 2020 playoffs. Haslem played none. Robinson was an undrafted sharpshooter with defensive limitations. Was bubble Herro real? Could Butler's body hold up?
It was always someone else's time. The Milwaukee Bucks entered the bubble in 2020 as the No. 1 seed, ready to avenge postseason demons; the Heat vanquished them in five games. The Bucks won the title the next year, sweeping the Heat along the way, and seemed primed to rule the East. Miami has outlasted them in two straight postseasons, humiliating them into turmoil in this season's first round.
Then, it was the Boston Celtics' time -- and they came within two games last season of their first title since 2008. The underdog Heat were one shot from beating those Celtics in the 2022 conference finals, and blew them out in Game 7 in Boston in the same round this time.
At some point, surely, it would be the Philadelphia 76ers' time. Coaches, general managers and rosters around Joel Embiid changed, but the Sixers have not won multiple postseason rounds since 2001. Miami laughed them out of the playoffs last season.
In four seasons with Butler, the Heat have made two Finals and three conference finals. The only thing missing is the biggest thing of all. Those would-be usurpers have all wobbled and quaked in hothouse moments. The Heat do not wobble. They evince no fear, no doubt, no uncertainty. They must feel those things, but it does not infect their performance. They just keep playing -- keep cutting, screening, passing, defending. Some teams and players feel the need to change to meet the moment -- to become an ideal they have created in their heads. The Heat delve further into who they are.
Miami is the superior defensive team, though Denver has matched it in the playoffs. The Heat's improvement on offense -- and their scorching 3-point shooting -- has driven this run, but Denver's offense is the most potent of the four units in this series. The Nuggets ranked fifth in points per possession in the regular season and have soared to No. 1 by a mile in the playoffs.
Jokic has cemented himself as the game's best offensive player -- a methodical whir of pivots, fakes, spins and no-look passes with no weaknesses. He might be both the league's best passer and low-post scorer. He has hit 55% or better on midrange shots for three straight seasons. He is shooting 47% on 3s in the playoffs. If there is any answer for him, no one has found it. The Murray-Jokic pick-and-roll, all staccato dribbles and slipper-soft footwork, is an unswitchable points machine.
In bad news for the Heat, zone defense to date has not been a workable answer. The Nuggets poured in 1.21 points per possession against zones this season -- No. 2 overall, per Second Spectrum. That bumped up to almost 1.3 points with Jokic on the floor. Jokic with three shooters orbiting him and Aaron Gordon lurking for lobs is an almost annoyingly perfect zone-busting alignment.
The Heat, zone masters, will try it; there is not much evidence it will work, but there was not much evidence Miami had a Finals run in it. The Heat sneer at your dossier about their qualifications; Butler might crumple it up and eat it. Maybe the Heat can sprinkle in the zone two and three possessions at a time so the Nuggets never build rhythm. If any team and coaching staff can pull that off, it's this bunch.
Jokic has done well in the post against Adebayo. He is too big and strong, comfortable backing Adebayo down from the block and the foul line:
The Nuggets have scored 1.2 points per possession on Jokic post-ups over their past eight games against Miami, per Second Spectrum. The Nuggets are 7-1 in those games; Jokic has averaged 20 points, 11 rebounds and 8 assists on 57.5% shooting. (Both teams missed key players across those games.)
Adebayo tries to use his speed to front Jokic and deflect entry passes, but the Nuggets -- dotted with practiced entry passers -- have been unbothered. Denver pries more space for Jokic by running him off cross screens.
When the Heat send help, Jokic has sliced them apart with passes flung one and two steps ahead of rotating defenders. Smart help defenders can sometimes rip steals from Jokic as he turns into spin moves, but Jokic eventually outwits aggressive help schemes. The Heat confuse offenses with digs and half-swipes. Confusing Jokic is an entirely different challenge.
The Heat once toyed with sticking tweeners -- P.J. Tucker, Justise Winslow -- onto Jokic, freeing Adebayo to roam (as Anthony Davis did while guarding Gordon in the conference finals), but they have mostly defaulted to Adebayo as their best chance. Adebayo is not the space-obliterating rim-protector who would thrive in that Davis-style rover role; he's 6-9 and averages less than one block per game.
Some of this depends on whether the Heat revert to starting Kevin Love over Caleb Martin. They could slot Love onto Jokic and Adebayo onto Gordon, opening the door for Butler to guard Murray. (Those matchups also insulate Adebayo from foul trouble -- something the Heat cannot afford.)
But Martin has been so much better than Love -- so essential, and Miami's second-best player in the conference finals. He might have to average 40 minutes, and it's hard to do that if you don't start. If Love guards Jokic, the Nuggets can lean more into Murray-Jokic pick-and-rolls -- exposing Love in open space.
Love can defend Gordon, but he's not all that useful as a rover. (The Heat have preferred Butler on Gordon to leverage his anticipation and swiping hands.) Miami will ignore Gordon to clog the lane regardless, and there will be games when the Nuggets -- nudged off-kilter by Miami's relentlessness and physicality -- will need Gordon to hit wide-open 3s. Denver also counters the "ignore Gordon" gambit by using him as a screener on and off the ball, and running plays through him at the elbow.
Adebayo is perhaps the league's most switchable big man, but the Heat might not have a realistic way of switching the Murray-Jokic two-man game. (They will still try here and there. At this stage, you don't leave any tools in the garage.) Adebayo is fine on Murray. The problem is Jokic mashing smaller defenders on the other side.
Butler could defend Murray at points. He is as ferocious and strong as any NBA wing defender; might he be able to switch onto Jokic in spots?
The Heat have tried, and Jokic has overwhelmed Butler:
Maybe Butler can dig in the way LeBron James did, but that is a tall order for a guy who has to do so much on offense; James is bigger than Butler and could manage only in snippets.
Haywood Highsmith looms as a wild card. The Heat have used him on Murray. Highsmith has good size -- he's 6-7 -- and could try to front Jokic on the (very occasional) switch. But Highsmith-on-Jokic is not some kind of solve. (It will be interesting to see who gets backup center minutes between Highsmith, Love and Cody Zeller. It might be worth trying Love at center against Denver's non-Jokic small-ball groups.)
Miami has mostly stuck to traditional pick-and-roll coverages, with Adebayo dropping back and corralling Murray in the paint. Murray and Jokic are experts at dissecting that with pocket passes, pull-ups and flip shots; Murray has hit 52% on midrangers in the playoffs, in peak form as a jitterbug scorer:
Butler will hunt Murray when Miami has the ball, but the Heat offer Denver fertile hunting grounds too -- even if you don't think of the pass-and-cut Nuggets as mismatch seekers. Murray can use guard-guard screens with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to yank the Heat into switching Robinson, Max Strus and (if he plays) Herro onto him. Caldwell-Pope sprinting into handoffs from Jokic drags the weakest opposing defender onto center stage.
Jokic can run inverted pick-and-rolls with whichever teammate draws the defender Jokic wants. Porter has the size to shoot over almost any Miami defender. Gordon has become a bulldozer in the post against mismatches.
Playing at least two of Porter, Gordon and Murray in small-ball lineups when Jokic sits -- and sometimes all three, along with the indispensable Bruce Brown -- has helped Denver survive and even win some of those stretches.
The Heat don't yield many free throws, but the Nuggets don't rely on foul shots; they ranked 23rd in free throw rate. They do rely on getting to the rim, and Miami allowed the fourth-fewest opponent shots in the restricted area, per Cleaning The Glass -- one potential edge. But some of that stems from its zone and Adebayo's switching -- weapons Denver might neutralize.
On the other end, only two teams generated fewer shots at the basket than Miami. Denver's opponents hit 71% of such shots -- second worst (i.e., highest) among defenses. Miami has to reorient its shot selection a little toward the basket.
Miami's pathway to points -- and enough open catch-and-shoot 3s -- starts with Butler as a battering ram against Murray. Denver will stick Gordon on Butler, and Gordon is the prototype Butler defender -- a little bigger and maybe stronger than Butler, just as fast, a leaper who can disrupt some of Butler's fadeaways. (Staying down on Butler's fakes will test Gordon's discipline.)
The rest of Denver's starting matchups could go: Jokic on Adebayo, Caldwell-Pope on Vincent, Murray on Strus and Porter Jr. on either Martin or Love. Brown, Christian Braun, Caldwell-Pope and Jeff Green will see time on Butler.
The Nuggets could in theory stash Jokic on Martin or Love, slide Gordon to Adebayo and start Caldwell-Pope on Butler. They tried versions of that gambit in all three playoff rounds, but that feels like overthinking against Miami. Martin punished the Celtics when they tried guarding him with Robert Williams III. The idea is more viable against Highsmith, but this is probably a break-in-case-of-emergency tactic.
Butler will find Murray on switches and back him down until the Nuggets send help -- and try to bury Murray with short shots and fouls if they don't. The Nuggets are ready for that. Everyone does it. It's effective for Miami, but also predictable and exhausting. Butler could not sustain it possession after possession in every game against Derrick White in the conference finals. Murray is not in White's universe as a defender, but it's tough for anyone to play that style over 48 minutes. The Nuggets can also duck screens for Butler or have Murray lunge to cut him off before toggling back to his original guy -- switch-avoidance techniques
Butler likes picking on Porter too -- targeting him on switches, blowing by him, beating Jokic to the rim:
Butler will prod Jokic in the pick-and-roll. He is not the kind of elite jump-shooter who forces Jokic to extend out of his comfort zone; the Nuggets have had Jokic hang back more and more when that's viable, and that might well be Denver's base defense against Butler early. They might slide under some screens, daring Butler to hoist jumpers; they've done so before, and Boston dabbled in it late in the conference finals.
For Miami to pull the upset, Butler has to make enough long 2s. Adebayo has to get hot on pocket pass floaters. If Butler starts raining fire, the Nuggets can have Jokic meet him higher on the floor -- near the level of the screen. That has been their go-to scheme for years, but it risks opening up the paint and corner 3s.
Herro could change the geometry of Miami's offense if he returns; he is Miami's main threat to pull up for 3s and long 2s against drop-back coverages. He also represents another defensive vulnerability for Denver to peck at. The Heat have not missed Herro's offense much with Butler shouldering more of the load and Martin and Vincent stepping up. Can that model hold one more round? The Heat might need a jolt of Herro's shot-making to swing one or two quarters against Denver.
(Herro could also prop up the offense when Butler rests. The Heat should continue avoiding resting Butler and Adebayo at the same time.)
Butler has other methods of puncturing drop-back schemes. He loves faking toward picks, getting the defense to lean that way and then jetting the other direction -- plowing through a teetering Jokic:
More complex set pieces -- screen-the-screener actions, multiple picks -- can jostle Denver's defense.
But these tactics alone won't do it. Denver is sturdy and connected enough to contain the basics. To win, the Heat need to use all five players and every inch of the court -- to get Denver swiveling east-west and make Jokic ride the yo-yo from the paint to the arc and back.
The Heat have their Butler offense and their five-man offense, and they hum when they use both at the same time. Their commitment to doing that over and over -- even when it's not working, when it feels futile -- is a huge reason they are here.
Jokic might drop back against Butler, but Miami's shooters offer no such luxury; he has to be closer to the arc when they fly around picks -- even if Denver's revamped cast of defenders is better at slithering around those picks. Can Jokic scurry from the paint against Butler to the arc against Strus, Robinson, Martin, Vincent and Herro within a few seconds?
Butler can run a pick-and-roll with Adebayo, lure Jokic into the paint and rifle the ball back outside to Adebayo for a rapid-fire handoff with a shooter -- and Jokic scrambling to arrive there in time.
Blitzing shooters can leave Adebayo a runway to the rim; he misses that floater, but he'll make bunches -- and has Butler open underneath for a drop-off.
The Heat can use Butler as a screening hub, with the added benefit of coaxing mismatches if the Nuggets switch:
Keep an eye on Kyle Lowry's fire hydrant screening game.
Miami should get requisite shots on goal; it is a low-turnover team facing a defense that doesn't force many. (Miami forces heaps of turnovers, and Denver has been turnover prone at times -- though not in the playoffs. That is one game within the game to monitor.)
Beware underestimating the ingenuity and toughness of Miami. All the "Denver was fortunate to draw Miami" chatter ignores that the Heat just defeated the very teams Denver would have supposedly been less fortunate to draw.
But the Nuggets have more talent, a superior track record and a meaningful home-court advantage.
Nuggets in 6. It is Denver's time.