This week's 10 Things features a Hall of Fame guard having a career year, some postseason X factors, a weakness within the Los Angeles Lakers, and a new roller-coaster opening in Orlando.
1. Damian Lillard, drawing entire defenses
Lillard is on the scoring run of his life for a Portland Trail Blazers team that isn't healthy, stable, or good enough to turn those binges of points into wins. Portland is 5-9 in its past 14 games, and has fallen into a tie for 12th.
Lillard is averaging a career-best 32.3 points -- trailing only Joel Embiid and Luka Doncic. The threat of his pull-up 3 extends defenses toward their breaking points, opening up for drives for Lillard.
Lillard is seizing on those chances with head-down fury. He's averaging a career-high 22 drives per 100 possessions, and regularly dusting both defenders -- his own, and the guy on his screener -- at the point of attack. Roast that layer, and third and fourth defenders swarm Lillard to prevent dunks. Over and over, Lillard is knifing into the lane and drawing damn near entire teams -- creating open looks everywhere:
Sometimes, you can barely spot Lillard amid the blur of opposing jerseys:
Lillard invites contact. He's averaging 9.4 free throws, fifth overall and by far a career high. He has attempted 14 or more in six of his past 16 games.
The Blazers have scored 1.23 points per possession when Lillard shoots off a drive, or dishes to a teammate who fires -- 10th among 245 players with at least 100 drives, per Second Spectrum.
It's easy to suggest Lillard "deserves" better than toiling around .500, but how do you get there? Do the Blazers have enough in the cupboard to trade for a second star without surrendering Anfernee Simons or Shaedon Sharpe? (Simons missing seven of Portland's past eight games has played a huge role in Portland's slump.)
That seems dicey. Portland snagged one lottery-protected first-round pick (and Cam Reddish) from the New York Knicks for Josh Hart, but they owe an equivalent pick to the Chicago Bulls as part of the trade that brought Portland Larry Nance Jr. in 2021.
Tough choices await.
2. The next step for Lauri Markkanen
Markkanen continues to score efficiently out of every action, from almost every spot on the floor. His versatility has held together Utah's ad hoc roster -- built from the ashes of mega trades -- powering them to a top-5 offense for most of the season. Even after shedding three key contributors at the deadline -- and with Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton both missing several games since -- Utah has scored pretty well with Markkanen on the floor.
On a fully-formed team, Markkanen won't be asked to initiate offense so much. But even then, the next step for him is becoming a better passer. He'll draw double teams on the block. As a screener in the pick-and-roll, he might slip into the paint -- and catch the ball with defenses in rotation, passing windows all around. Those windows close fast. Markkanen needs to be a more confident and snappier passer.
Markkanen is averaging 1.8 assists this season, and 1.4 for his career. He has 109 assists and 117 turnovers this season. Even finishers (and Finnishers!) have to do more than that.
Markkanen is sometimes late spotting open teammates, or hesitant to throw passes at full speed:
Daniel Gafford is a large impediment, but the passing lane to Walker Kessler is there.
3. (Should we mention Gordon Hayward's recent play)?
I'm afraid to jinx it, but Hayward has appeared in 19 straight games after six years of on-again, off-again injuries that started with that traumatic leg injury in his first game as a Boston Celtic.
Hayward will never be the prolific 20-point scorer he was before that night. He has never regained his explosiveness. Hayward often looks tentative approaching the rim, pivoting away from contact and into fadeaways; only 21% of his attempts have come in the restricted area -- a career low.
But he's still a dependable 16-point, 5-rebound, 5-assist connector who scores efficiently, defends multiple positions, and keeps the offense moving. He's a solid starter who should age into a reliable backup. I look forward to "Gordon Hayward, key reserve on a contender" someday soon.
Charlotte is 9-10 in those 19 games, the past five without LaMelo Ball. That included a 5-game win streak, and snapping the New York Knicks' rollicking 9-gamer in Madison Square Garden. This improbable spurt of competence hurt Charlotte's Victor Wembanyama odds, but perhaps the lottery gods will remember their valor.
Hayward has averaged 16 points on 51% shooting in those 19 games. He has logged 30-plus minutes in the last 14.
His injury in 2017 is a sad and multilayered what-if -- starting (obviously) with what Hayward's career might have been. That was Jaylen Brown's second season, and Jayson Tatum's rookie year. Both started as Boston made the conference finals with Hayward and Kyrie Irving injured. The veterans returned the next season to a very different team than the one they had joined in 2017.
Do Tatum and Brown get so much opportunity so fast if Hayward never gets hurt? Would Irving have been content in Boston had Hayward stayed healthy? Would that have been a good thing for the Celtics? How would Irving signaling he would re-sign in Boston have impacted (if at all) the Anthony Davis sweepstakes?
We'll never know, but it's nice to see Hayward playing well every game.
4. The Lakers transition defense could haunt them
The Lakers have hung in without LeBron James and D'Angelo Russell, and the West is wobbling all around them. They have the conference's easiest remaining schedule, and two more home than road games. The Lakers now have a good chance to stay in the play-in; a significantly better chance than a week ago at the No. 7 or 8 seed (a massive edge); and a nontrivial chance at sneaking into the top 6.
The Lakers saving their season and taking a crack at a real postseason run would be a nice story. They have fought hard all along, with perhaps one exception -- a flaw that could undo them in high-stakes games: miserable transition defense.
The problem has persisted beyond Russell Westbrook -- whose turnovers and bonks at the rim had the Lakers chasing from behind. Their floor balance goes awry, with four players below the foul line when a shot goes up:
Here's the ensuing Golden State Warriors onslaught:
Yeah, you're backpedaling. Transition defense is chaos. But rule No. 1 is STICK TO STEPHEN CURRY!
Rule No. 2 is THE SAME APPLIES TO KLAY THOMPSON!
The Lakers' floor balance is rickety there, and then Dennis Schroder, Malik Beasley, and Anthony Davis decide to just let Thompson amble behind them.
They get back to even here, but then everyone surrounds Ja Morant -- allowing Xavier Tillman to score untouched.
The Lakers rank in the bottom 7 in points allowed per possession off both live rebounds and steals, per Cleaning The Glass. They have to clean this up to contend for anything serious.
5. THE BOL-LER-COASTER!!!!
The Bol Bol Most Improved Player campaign capsized in early January, when the Orlando Magic yanked him from the starting lineup -- mothballing the weird, ultra-big trio of Bol, Paolo Banchero, and Wendell Carter Jr. in favor of a more traditional starting five. Bol has logged 20-plus minutes in just three games since.
Jonathan Isaac's brief return added another roadblock. The Magic don't trust Bol to play center; Carter and Mo Wagner share those minutes.
Bol is something, but it's unclear what -- except that he's a can't-avert-your-eyes adventure. There is no sight quite like a 7-2 giant with a preposterous 7-8 wingspan zig-zagging coast-to-coast. Every elongated dribble contains delicious suspense; possessions hang in the balance as the ball hangs in the air. The journey may end with Bol tossing the ball five rows into the stands or Eurostepping between defenders for a face-at-the-rim dunk.
David Steele, the Magic's wonderful play-by-play man, started referring to Bol's forays as the "Bol-ler Coaster." Greg Hartung, director for Bally Sports Florida, thought it might be funny if the Magic's broadcast team (Steele, Jeff Turner, Dante Marchitelli) -- plus the public relations staffers sitting nearby (George Galante, Joel Glass) -- mimicked the arms-up "wheeeeee!" pose riders take when roller coasters jet downward. Thus was born Orlando's latest niche hit: the Bol-ler Coaster:
(Jamahl Mosely has no time for this.)
This group has such fun camaraderie. They have learned to find joy in small things amid endless losing. They are basketball hostages -- experiencing NBA Mediocrity Syndrome.
With Banchero and Franz Wagner aboard -- plus other young talent, and perhaps two more lottery picks coming -- the Magic for the first time in a decade can see above mediocrity.
6. Michael Porter Jr's size matters on defense
It is not some crime to be skeptical about the Denver Nuggets defense holding up in the playoffs. Nikola Jokic is not a rim protector. (It is a crime -- a basketball crime, anyway -- to pretend as if Jokic has had less postseason success than Joel Embiid. Both have been centerpieces on undermanned teams which were dispatched in the first round -- Jokic last season against the eventual champions; Embiid in the bubble against the Boston Celtics with Ben Simmons out. Jokic has reached one conference final; Embiid has never been that far. Jokic's individual postseason numbers are better. None of this should matter in the MVP debate, but there appears to be a misconception in some corners that Jokic's lack of postseason success should be held against him relative to Embiid.)
The Nuggets try to scheme around that. Michael Malone has been much more creative varying up tactics -- zones, more conservative dropback coverages, having guards duck screens against so-so shooters, even stashing Jokic on nonthreatening wings. (This toggling was overdue.)
Jokic makes up for some of his limitations with steals, smart positioning, and sticky defensive rebounding. Denver's defense is much stingier with Jokic on the floor.
But Denver opponents have hit 71% at the rim -- the second-worst figure among all defenses. That is a lot about Jokic. The Nuggets have gotten somewhat lucky with opponent jump-shooting. Their model is an elite offense carrying a just-good-enough defense. They can win it all that way, but they may be more vulnerable than better defensive teams to the luck of matchups.
Jokic prefers meeting ball handlers high on the floor -- at or above the screen -- against the pick-and-roll. That is taxing. Jokic has to scramble. Wing defenders behind him rotate in and out -- barricading the paint, then flying back to shooters. One mistake, and the forcefield starts to fracture.
Two seasons ago, Porter had no idea how to execute those rotations. He has made huge strides, and his size is now an asset in that frenetic scheme. He eats up huge chunks of space, rebounds pretty well, and disrupts both shooters and passing lanes:
The Nuggets are more fundamentally sound on defense when they replace Porter with Bruce Brown alongside their other four starters; that is their closing lineup on lots of nights. But they are smaller, with less upside on offense.
7. KEEP GOING TOWARD THE BASKET, DEANDRE AYTON
Keeping Deandre Ayton was an under discussed subplot of the Phoenix Suns deal for Kevin Durant -- even if the Brooklyn Nets were never much interested in acquiring him, per league sources.
Ayton is 24. He's not the interior force proponents envisioned when the Suns took him No. 1 (over Luka Doncic), but he's a good two-way player. If Ayton and Devin Booker (just 26) remain mostly healthy over the next half-decade, that should fortify Phoenix against the severe Nets-style downside of coughing up high-end lottery picks as Durant and Chris Paul age.
Right now, Ayton is perhaps the most important non-superstar variable in the championship race -- presuming Durant returns in time and at 100% from his ankle injury. Phoenix needs him to be airtight defensively. He is one of the few bigs who can corral pick-and-rolls at the arc and fight Nikola Jokic in the post.
The combined supernova threat of Durant, Paul, and Booker -- perhaps the greatest collection of pull-up shooting and pick-and-roll ballhandling ever on one team -- will catapult Ayton into open spaces and mismatches. He has to take advantage with more ferocity.
Ayton's default direction in traffic is backward. For whatever reason, he prefers to gather and spin away from the rim for hooks. Ayton has never averaged more than three free throws per game.
Can we excise this nonsense?
This is how easy it will be now: One Durant post touch triggers cascading rotations that remove Nikola Vucevic from Ayton, and end with Ayton catching down low with some combination of no one and Patrick Beverley on him. Go fast, and Ayton might rise up before Beverley completes his rotation. Ayton is 10 inches taller and 70 pounds heavier than Beverley. Forget this twirling finesse. Dunk it, and toss Beverley into the stanchion.
8. Don't forget Trae Young's passing
Concern over Young and the Atlanta Hawks is not a trumped-up media story. Young has contributed to the departures of two head coaches in two years. Turmoil trickled upward, destabilizing the team's front office.
There have been grumblings -- some public, most private -- that some current and former teammates don't love playing with him. Young dominates the ball, takes the most shots, and gives very little on defense. (He has been friskier under Quin Snyder.) That leaves teammates standing around on offense, and then covering for him on the other end.
He has shown little interest in screening and moving without the ball. The Hawks need Young to engage that part of his game with Dejounte Murray on board. Young could bend and stretch opposing defenses as a roving menace.
Criticism comes with being a franchise player -- Atlanta's forever alternate to Doncic. The team is .500 despite trading all those picks for Murray, with no clear path to cap space.
But the noise sometimes obscures what a brilliant passer Young is. He can make almost any pass from any angle or distance, lefty or righty.
That is a 35-foot left-handed clothesline that flies over Gabe Vincent, Bam Adebayo, Clint Capela, and Max Strus. The last two are standing almost directly in front of Young's target -- John Collins. (The new collective bargaining agreement should include a stipulation granting Collins a 0.5% equity stake in the Hawks if they don't trade him this summer.)
This is an outrageous pass for a 6-1 player. It takes sophisticated floor mapping to know the pass is even there. To imbue it with the right height, distance, and velocity is ridiculous. How many players in league history even near Young's size could throw passes like this regularly?
For the fifth year running, the Hawks offense sinks into an abyss when Young rests. They have never built an identity outside Young's singular style. Is some of that on Young's insistence on playing that style?
In Atlanta's conference finals run, Young showed more willingness to get off the ball early -- to flick the first open pass as help defenders converged. That unlocks more swing-swing sequences, some of which end with the ball coming back to Young for open 3s.
You don't want to tilt Young's game too far in this direction. He is too good with the ball. But more simple passes earlier in possessions boosts the whole ecosystem.
9. Jaden Ivey, modulating
Ivey's rookie season has felt slightly disappointing given the jockeying to trade up for him -- and then the thrill of imagining him alongside Cade Cunningham. They played only 11 games together before the Pistons shut Cunningham down, leaving Ivey shouldering a larger role than anyone expected.
He's shooting 46% on 2s and 33% on 3s. He is behind the curve on defense, crashing into picks and getting lost in rotations -- sometimes literally lost, swiveling in one place figuring out which way he should go.
Ivey's speed is his best weapon, but it gets him into trouble. He stays too long in turbo, screaming ahead of his teammates, the game, and his ability to read it. Ivey ends up trapped under the rim or in midair, eyes darting, desperate for an outlet. He is averaging 3.5 turnovers per 36 minutes.
But Ivey has gotten steadier almost every week, showing deeper understanding of how possessions unfold -- how he can slow down to manipulate defenses.
That is approaching veteran-level craft -- Ivey decelerating to pin his defender on his hip, freezing the game, waiting for the defense to expose something. Ivey has shown softer touch on his floater and pull-up jumper from these in-between spots.
He spots the lob to James Wiseman here; they have flashed some pick-and-roll chemistry, and it's not a coincidence this nifty possession comes with Wiseman as the only big -- and Isaiah Livers at power forward, spacing the floor. Lineups featuring any two of Isaiah Stewart, Jalen Duren, Marvin Bagley III, and Wiseman offer zero spacing -- challenging confines for any young ball handler.
(Wiseman has scored well in Detroit. His passing and defense have been disastrous. He has six assists and 18 turnovers as a Piston.)
Changing pace lends Ivey's speed a powerful element of surprise. He's learning to amp it up at the right moments:
That is a filthy in-and-out dribble. Add an extra beat of hesitation, and that move becomes even more disorienting.
Ivey has dished 10 or more assists in four games this season; three have come in his past five games. There is a ton of work to do, but Ivey is a decent bet for a bigger-than-expected Year 2 leap.
10. Confusing alternate court selections
I am very pro-alternate court designs. Lots are cool. Some are upgrades over standard courts. Unlike alternate jerseys, there are not so many that they begin to lose all meaning.
But can teams be a little more judicious about when -- and against which teams -- they bust out alternate floors?
For 48 minutes, my brain assumed this game between the Philadelphia 76ers and Milwaukee Bucks -- a statement win for the Sixers -- was in Philly:
The Sixers don't use this shade of blue, but blue is among their core colors. The Bucks recently incorporated it as a nod to the lakes around Milwaukee. Fun! It has spiced up some of their jerseys. This court is ... fine? Can they reserve it for games against teams who don't use blue? (In fairness, Milwaukee's main court was reportedly damaged, forcing them to use the alternate more than intended.)
I experienced milder court dissonance during last week's Warriors-LA Clippers game:
There were enough signals -- including snazzy yellow lines -- to remind me this game was in San Francisco. But the Clippers use lots of black, including on the boundaries of their core courts. Let's make NBA art 10% less confusing!