For our first 10 things of 2023, we highlight Luka's volcanic shooting, Herro-ics in Miami, LaMelo Ball aimlessness, and a new invention from Nikola Jokic, plus issue a futile finger wag at obtrusive in-game ads. Happy New Year!
1. Luka Doncic, not settling
It's hard to track every individual scoring explosion, but Doncic's six games before a semi-dud against the Boston Celtics on Thursday was more like a prolonged volcanic eruption: 44 points on 53% shooting, including 43% from deep. That doesn't even look real.
All the focus on Doncic's ball dominance has obscured (a little) that he has reached a new efficiency level. After a chilly start on those patented step-backs, Doncic is up to 35% from deep.
He has hit 75% at the rim and 55% from floater range -- absurdity. The Mavs have scored 118.7 points per 100 possessions with Doncic on the floor -- just above Boston's league-leading offense. That plummets to 104 when he rests -- a tribute to Doncic's brilliance and an indictment of the roster around him.
The Mavs are built to jack 3s off Doncic passes, but Doncic knows the most basic NBA math: a shot at the rim is the best shot. His height, imagination, and daring grant him access to passes off-limits to almost everyone else:
A double-team on Doncic normally means an open triple for someone else -- even if his screener, Christian Wood here, is rolling to the rim. (Lineups with Wood as the only big -- including the Mavs' current starting five -- have proved as unguardable as anticipated. Such groups featuring Doncic have outscored opponents by four points per 100 possessions, per Cleaning The Glass.)
Doncic diagnoses that this isn't a permanent trap; it's a delayed switch, with Doncic's man turning to chase Wood -- and other defenders sticking to Dallas' shooters.
Wood is open -- a wide receiver in need of a lead pass. Only a pass with the right speed, height, and touch has any chance. Even then, the space-time window might be too narrow. Doncic widens that window with an eye fake that freezes the key help defender -- Romeo Langford, lurking from the left corner.
There are few NBA moments more thrilling than that single second when Doncic curves around a pick and pauses with a live dribble. No one builds more visceral drama from stasis. That second contains so many possibilities. Doncic holds the game in his hands. Defenders fret. Will one of them panic and lurch into the paint -- exposing an open shooter? Will Doncic tilt the entire defense with one glance?
This time, Doncic's fallback is simpler: wait for his screener, Dwight Powell, to catch up and seal Zach Collins on one side of the basket. Doncic and Maxi Kleber have mastered this, and Powell has it down too.
The Mavs lost Jalen Brunson for nothing; could not make 3s for two months; are missing Kleber, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Josh Green; and are No. 4 in the West at 22-17 after Boston snapped their seven-game winning streak. Doncic belongs at or near the top of any MVP ladder.
2. Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro, carrying the Heat
The Heat are 8-4 in their past 12 and finally getting healthy. Adebayo and Herro have been stalwarts in keeping Miami afloat while Jimmy Butler drifts in and out of the lineup with knee issues. Adebayo should make his second All-Star appearance; Herro belongs in the conversation.
Adebayo has bumped his scoring average from 19.1 to 21.8, assuming more of a scoring burden while never losing touch with his role as a creative fulcrum. He is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate -- an all-court destroyer.
Adebayo is averaging 9 isolations per 100 possessions, up from 5.5 in prior seasons, and scoring 1.06 points per possession out of them -- 64th among 207 players with at least 20 isos, per Second Spectrum data. He's exceeding that efficiency on post-ups.
He looks steadier facing up, jab-stepping into rhythm, and lofting floaters:
Even beyond the super-clutch game winners, Herro is enjoying his best all-around season -- including rebounding at power forward levels. Herro's pick-and-roll volume is up, and he's delivering: Miami has scored 1.1 points per possession directly out of Herro pick-and-rolls -- 19th among 166 ball handlers who have run at least 100 such actions, per Second Spectrum tracking.
In the offseason, I wrote that Herro should channel Klay Thompson and hunt more 3s; Herro's 3-point rate had dropped in two straight seasons, and he was passing up looks.
Not anymore. More than half Herro's shots have been 3s, up from 39% last season. He's searching them out, and rising up the instant he sees daylight:
Herro slams on the brakes to see whether Marcus Morris Sr. flies by. Check. A year ago, Herro might have toggled into his two-man game with Adebayo or ambled into a midranger.
A close-out stifles Herro's first look, but he and Adebayo improvise a hand-off to unlock another.
The Heat reject all talk that their title window has closed. Even if they're wrong -- even if they have to retool without a superstar trade -- doing so around a Herro-Adebayo foundation is not a bad place to start.
3. Marcus Smart, true point guard
Smart has grown into an almost perfect point guard for these Celtics. Smart can start possessions, but he doesn't have to; he's happy working off the ball, or screening for Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.
Smart runs 18 pick-and-rolls per 100 possessions, according to Second Spectrum data -- one more than Brown, three fewer than Tatum. That's healthy balance.
When Smart initiates, he doesn't hog possessions from start to finish. He gets off the ball early, content to work from there as a connector:
That is where Smart's passing sings -- mid-possession touches that keep the machine moving, keep the defense scrambling, and get the ball back to Boston's stars. Smart knows Tatum will relocate to the corner there. He wastes zero milliseconds returning the ball to Tatum. Tatum catches Smart's pass with Joe Ingles still moving toward him -- easy prey for that blow-by.
Boston's assist rate is at its lowest when Smart rests.
Smart is posting up more and is emerging as an ace inside-out distributor. Boston has averaged almost 1.25 points when Smart shoots out of the post or dishes to a teammate who launches -- eighth among 81 players with at least 20 post touches, per Second Spectrum tracking. Only four players have higher assist rates out of post-ups.
The only flaw -- the "almost" in "almost perfect" -- is Smart stalling out as a 33%-ish 3-point shooter.
4. Josh Giddey, getting what he wants
I have no idea what Giddey will be in five years. He's 20. It will be hard for him to become the primary creator on a good team without a bankable jumper; Giddey is shooting 33.7% on 3s and 38% on midrangers. He rarely attempts long 2s.
But there is a huge middle ground for so-so shooters between "No. 1 ball handler" and "stand-still spot-up guy" -- a gray area where tall passers who rebound, cut, and defend can thrive as connectors.
Giddey is 6-8, and he sees every pass from every spot. He's an elite rebounder and a solid defender already. (Keep an eye on the Thunder collecting similarly sized big wing players who can switch on defense and flip-flop roles on offense.) He's at 34.5% on catch-and-shoot 3s; if he can get into the high 30s on more volume, that's a career-changer.
Giddey knows defenders will go under screens against him, walling off the paint. He has already mastered several antidotes:
Instead of a rote pick-and-roll, Giddey pitches the ball ahead to his screener and sprints into a handoff. That gives him a chance to beat his defender to the spot if that defender -- Jaden McDaniels here -- slides under the pick. McDaniels wins that race, but he's backpedaling fast -- vulnerable to the change-of-direction move Giddey busts out.
Giddey is a muscly one-on-one player in tight confines -- cagey using his size to shoot over defenders. He fools defenders with nifty "Smitty" fake half-spins and other ploys. On pick-and-rolls, Giddey is smart about having screeners set two or three picks -- flipping the angle each time, moving one step lower -- until his defender gets hung up or he's chiseled into floater range.
There's a long way to go: Giddey ranks below average in pick-and-roll efficiency, per Second Spectrum data. But I can't wait to watch how Giddey and his teammates grow together.
5. The randomness of LaMelo Ball's defense
Ball is 21. Ankle injuries compounded by a "Curb Your Enthusiasm" plotline come to life have derailed his season. The Charlotte Hornets are tanking by accident. I wouldn't read much into any worrisome signs.
But Ball's defense is a problem. There are two types of gamblers in the NBA: geniuses operating so many steps ahead, with such deep knowledge of opposing playbooks, their gambles are barely gambles at all. These are card counters: Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala, Manu Ginobili.
Type 2 is the guy just running around. That's Ball. Some of Ball's wild bets pay out; he's smart, with good anticipation and snappy hands. He can grow into a card counter. But too many are random, attempted from positions of weakness and without much thought behind them. When they fail, there is no way for Charlotte to recover.
Ball makes errors you'd expect from young players, though in larger doses: going under screens against top shooters, falling asleep off the ball. When an emergency requires on-the-fly rotations, Ball is often the one who snaps the string:
Charlotte has allowed 113 points per 100 possessions when Ball rests -- and a grotesque 119 when he plays. That would rank last among teams, and it's not entirely a coincidence.
On offense, Ball is one of only two players attempting at least 20 shots per 36 minutes and fewer than 3.5 free throws, per Basketball-Reference data. (Klay Thompson is the other.) Only 15 guys crack that 20-shot barrier, and it's basically the league's best players -- plus Ball. He's shooting a lot.
Ball will be fine. He's young, big for his position, with vision you can't teach. He's a good shooter. His game is just out of balance right now.
6. Nikola Jokic, endlessly inventive
Just when I thought Jokic could not come up with any more tricks-within-tricks, I saw him start this action with an exaggerated jump underneath the rim -- back to the hoop, eyes wide, arms up to "catch" a pass that was never coming:
Jokic is not a leaper. He's not expecting Jamal Murray to throw a 28-foot entry. He wants to bait Adebayo into leaping so Adebayo is behind when Jokic scampers up to screen for Murray. It works! Adebayo catches up because he is fast and tenacious, but we award Jokic points for creativity. (Nuggets staffers agreed this was a legitimate fake, with the caveat that they never quite know what Jokic is up to.)
We need to study this guy's brain. No one else is processing the game like this.
The Nuggets are 11-3 in their past 14, finding their groove with Michael Porter Jr. back. Murray is bobbing and weaving with more zip. Porter is pushing off rebounds, adding off-the-bounce work to his unblockable spot-up shooting. Aaron Gordon is having the season of his life. Bruce Brown is everything Denver wanted. Bones Hyland is talking about improving his defense, and acknowledging your weaknesses is step one. Michael Malone is shifting more reserve minutes to defense-first energy types -- Christian Braun, Vlatko Cancar, and Zeke Nnaji. (Braun did not play until garbage time Thursday night. He needs to be a rotation regular.)
The Nuggets have no first-round picks to deal, but they'll search the trade and buyout markets for one last option. They know they have the goods to make the Finals.
7. When the five-out Clippers don't attack the gaps
The Clippers are still an ugly 28th in points per possession after the Nuggets embarrassed them Thursday night. (Denver feels really comfortable in that matchup, dating to the 2020 bubble playoffs. Something to keep in mind.) The signs going into that humiliation indicated LA's offense would be fine (eventually) as Kawhi Leonard played more and Tyronn Lue settled on his core lineups -- including his best center-less five-out groups.
But for those smaller lineups to score enough, the Clippers have to attack every touch with force. Opening gaps is worthless if you don't exploit them.
Both Marcus Morris Sr. and Reggie Jackson catch the ball with driving lanes in front of them. Morris pings it to Jackson. OK. Jackson is quicker, with a fat diagonal alley ahead. He's also shooting 44% on catch-and-shoot 3s, and he has a look here -- if he pounces on it. (Jackson is a ghastly 6-of-44 on pull-up 3s. Yikes.)
Jackson demurs and flicks it back to Morris. Two nothing passes, and the Philadelphia 76ers reset their defense.
This is the Clippers at their least inspired -- meekly tapping the ball around the arc. The Clips are constructed to be a 3-point-shooting machine, but they hit another level when they mix in more north-south drives -- some of which produce open catch-and-shoot 3s.
Norman Powell brings that oomph, and he's surging into the Sixth Man of the Year race. Terance Mann hunts the tin at full throttle. Luke Kennard's roving gravity opens lanes for everyone else. A lot of LA fans want to slide some Morris/Jackson minutes to those guys. That's probably smart, though Lue should not go overboard; a few minutes will do. Morris has played well and adds size.
The Clips are 23rd in shots within the restricted area and 22nd in drives per 100 possessions. (They are an encouraging 13th in free throw rate.)
To reach the conference finals and beyond, LA needs more variety on offense.
8. The Davion Mitchell show
Mitchell feels somewhat lost in his sophomore season after averaging 18 points and 8 assists for Sacramento over the last 14 games of his rookie campaign. (De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis missed most of those games.)
Mitchell's minutes and pick-and-roll volume are way down. Even when he plays without Fox, Mitchell often spots up while Malik Monk runs the show. That's not the right role; he's at 29.8% from deep after hitting 31.6% last season. Defenses ignore him to muck up the paint:
Without a reliable 3-pointer, Mitchell does not enjoy the same handoff chemistry with Sabonis as Monk and Kevin Huerter do.
The on-ball stuff isn't going great, either. The Kings are scoring 0.78 points per possession directly out of Mitchell pick-and-rolls -- 160th out of 166 guys who have run at least 100 such plays, per Second Spectrum tracking. Defenders duck picks for Mitchell, barricading the paint and staying attached to shooters . Only eight guys in that 165-player sample draw shooting fouls less often than Mitchell. He has 17 free throw attempts in 36 games.
But with less responsibility on offense, Mitchell has leaned all the way into his role as in-your-jersey menace on defense. The energy changes the second he enters. There are nine guys playing at normal speed, and then there is Mitchell -- sprinting around picks, stonewalling ball handlers, spreading his arms to clutter driving lanes. If Mitchell has bad breath, his mark will notice. The combination of speed, agility, and muscle is rare.
Mitchell's one-on-one defense is a show unto itself. He seemed eager to ruin Collin Sexton's night when the Kings hosted the Utah Jazz last week. Some opposing guards slump their shoulders when they realize Mitchell is set to defend them: I have to deal with this?
Other guards relish the challenge. Ja Morant cackled turning Mitchell's physicality against him, coaxing quick shooting fouls during their Jan. 1 meeting.
Mitchell is 6-1 with a short wingspan, so he'll never be an elite multi-positional defender. There are guys he just can't guard. He doesn't get rebounds or steals. He's a stouter Avery Bradley, basically.
But in the right matchups, that player type helps. The Kings are allowing 109.7 points per 100 possessions with Mitchell on the floor and 113.7 when he sits. Some of that is random -- shooting luck, and Mitchell playing mostly against reserve-heavy groups. But he's helping.
"Low-usage defensive backup" feels disappointing for a No. 9 pick, but maybe this is Mitchell's water level. Given the average returns for No. 9 picks, that's not bad.
9. Tyrese Haliburton can go one-on-one too
Halliburton is 6-5 -- taller than typical point guards. Some playoff teams won't play any typical point guard-size players. Those that do will hide them on Buddy Hield, Andrew Nembhard, or Aaron Nesmith. But sometimes they'll be stuck on Haliburton, and on those possessions Halliburton has another option: shooting over those guys.
That's an invaluable failsafe when defenses take away the pretty stuff and the shot clock ticks away. Haliburton's one-on-one game is twitchy, hard to grasp, dangerous going forward or backward because of his step-back triple. The mere threat of that shot -- a raise-up hesitation dribble, an eyebrow fake (Haliburton has expressive eyes, which sounds weird but is also useful for a pass-first guard) -- knocks defenders off-balance. It has helped Haliburton burn switching defenses even though he's not a blow-away athlete.
The Pacers have scored 1.18 points when Haliburton shoots out of an isolation or dishes to a teammate who fires -- 21st among 207 players with at least 20 isos, per Second Spectrum data.
Indiana was 12-11 when it entered perhaps the toughest month of its schedule. If the Pacers were a paper tiger, it would show. They are 9-7 since. They're good, period. Only injuries or self-sabotage by trade can drag them into mid-lottery range.
10. In-game ads must vanish
With take fouls eradicated, this is my next crusade: Get rid of in-game ads that spread chunks of the screen. (I realize this protest is hopeless.)
This is the least offensive iteration -- an annoyance:
These half-screeners should be limited to free throws and other dead time. Otherwise, let me see the damned game.
But what happened in the fourth quarter of Donovan Mitchell's 71-point avalanche was unconscionable -- unconscionable, I say!
The dude is on his way to 71 points and I can't see the pick-and-roll he's running in crunch time because an ad is covering parts of four players? Don't make me start writing angry handwritten letters, Bally Sports Cleveland!