It's Friday, and that means 10 more NBA things to explore across the league! This week, we highlight a potential savior in Orlando, what the Knicks need to do just to stay at .500, aimlessness in Minnesota and glimpses of change for Trae Young.
1. Can Paolo Banchero save the Orlando Magic?
Banchero's debut streak of six 20-plus-point games drew all the attention, but the eye test sings even louder than the numbers.
It is rare for a rookie to look the part right away. Banchero is big and strong, and plays with the controlled confidence of a veteran. He can do a little bit of everything on offense, enabling the Magic to play goofy super-big lineups featuring Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr., and Bol Bol. (Carter keeps getting better. He's added a little more power -- a mean streak resulting in more free throws. This Bol Bol thing might be real. He's shooting 72% on 2s and blotting out the rim on defense. Orlando even used him at backup center over Mohamed Bamba in the first half Thursday against the reeling Golden State Warriors.)
Banchero is running 27 pick-and-rolls per 100 possessions, about the same as Jamal Murray and Paul George, per Second Spectrum tracking. That's ridiculous for a rookie big man. Banchero has a crafty off-the-bounce game, and he maps the floor a beat ahead of the action:
Banchero hypnotizes P.J. Washington with a languid dribble toward his screener, and zooms the other way. Banchero then gets off the ball early, with the defense just beginning its rotation, and flings a tough cross-court pass to R.J. Hampton. Most ball handlers look first to the shooter in the weak-side corner. That's the pass defenses expect. Banchero skips that link in the chain, and generates a wide-open shot. You can make that pass at that tempo only if you anticipate it.
Banchero is making a lot of sophisticated passes out of the pick-and-roll, and Orlando has scored well out of those actions. Banchero looks comfortable posting up; going one-on-one from the perimeter; rampaging in transition; and running the offense from the elbows.
Orlando has scored 1.120 points per possession out of Banchero isolations -- 39th among 118 ball handlers who have recorded at least 10 isos, per Second Spectrum data. Producing under such a heavy burden -- on a rebuilding team battling injuries across the backcourt -- is massively encouraging.
Banchero has a gorgeous leaning floater:
Banchero has the smarts, size, and footwork to develop into a solid and switchable defender. He's an eager charge-taker, and he's averaging one block per game despite concerns about a potential lack of any rim-protection from him.
Banchero might not end Orlando's Joe DiMaggio-level streak of ranking 20th or worse in points per possession this season, but he gives the Magic a roadmap.
2. Keep an eye on Miami's offense
The Heat's offense perked up in much-needed wins this week over the Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings -- the last without Jimmy Butler. They understood starting Tyler Herro would disrupt the dynamic of a group that knew how to operate in cuts and handoffs around Butler and Bam Adebayo. Herro needs the ball more, and he's young and productive enough to justify the investment. The Heat are playing the long game.
In the early going, the Heat have for long stretches lost their groove -- their flowing, instinctive continuity. The first -- and maybe second -- action resembles classic Heat offense, but then comes the record scratch: The ball sticks (and not always somewhere you want it sticking), and the other players just kind of stand there:
The Heat aren't getting as many 3s as they'd like. Only three teams are generating fewer shots at the rim. They rank 21st in points per possession.
That should improve. Butler has been really good, but he hasn't hit 30 points yet; monster scoring games are coming. Kyle Lowry is showing signs of life. Getting Victor Oladipo back would help. Erik Spoelstra will squeeze everything from this roster.
Herro stretching himself as a ball handler is good in the big picture. But alongside Butler, Adebayo, and Lowry, Herro should be more attuned moving without the ball -- and more aggressive hunting catch-and-shoot 3s.
3. Worrisome signs from the New York Knicks starters -- again
Stop me if you've heard this before: The Knicks' starting lineup isn't working. Opponents have outscored New York's starters -- Jalen Brunson, Evan Fournier, RJ Barrett, Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson -- by nine points per 100 possessions. They've been bad on both ends.
Brunson alone can't solve the basic spacing issues: Randle does his best work in the paint, but he can't get all the way to the rim because Robinson -- and Robinson's defender -- is always there. Randle is 6-of-29 from deep and has hit 34% or worse in every season but his All-NBA campaign in 2020-21; when he spots up, defenses don't pay him much attention.
Barrett dropped to 34% on 3s last season, and he's 9-of-38 so far now. When the timing is off -- when Randle meanders into Robinson's space, or Barrett cuts inside at the wrong moment -- things get jumbled:
New York's starting five have managed just 85.9 points per 100 possessions in the half-court, per Cleaning the Glass -- a mark that would be 29th among teams. The Knicks have tried to compensate by running more.
This lineup will jell to some degree. Randle and Barrett will hit more 3s. Randle can slip lobs to Robinson, and Robinson is feasting on put-backs. This group has combined to shoot just 27% on long 2s. Brunson and the holdover players are learning each other. Everyone seems committed to cutting hard and passing more. We'll see how the rotation changes when Quentin Grimes returns.
But everything needs to be really precise, and I'm not sure the current lineup has a ceiling on offense much higher than average.
The Knicks need to be better than that on defense, and another alarm is blaring there: They are 28th in defensive rebounding after finishing fourth last season.
Randle is missing too many box-outs. Robinson's zeal chasing blocks -- he's been good on defense overall -- can leave the glass naked. Robinson's league-leading offensive rebounding rate is actually higher than his defensive rebounding rate.
The Knicks need to get the little things right to stay at or above .500.
4. A wonkier-than-expected start for the mega-Wolves?
We knew it would take time for Minnesota's new twin towers alignment to click, but, man, has it been clunky for stretches when Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert share the floor.
Towns is posting up at a career-low rate, per Second Spectrum tracking. His shots at the rim are way down. He's figuring out what to do when Gobert screens for Anthony Edwards or D'Angelo Russell -- where to stand, how to best prepare to run some secondary pick-and-roll on the wing. All of that is baked into the adjustment period.
But the confusion and aimlessness has been jarring at times.
Towns and Edwards almost collide after the inbounds pass. Russell wanders into Edwards' driving path. Russell and Gobert nearly bump each other in the middle of the floor. What is the plan here?
Why is Jaden McDaniels initiating random pick-and-rolls in crunch time? He crashes into Gobert from behind, almost creating an NBA version of the infamous Butt Fumble. Nobody really does anything for the rest of the possession. Edwards shrugs and shoots.
Minnesota is 23rd in points per possession. The Wolves haven't generated enough 3s. They're scoring at a bottom-three rate when Gobert and Towns play together. The Towns-only lineups are thriving on offense and bleeding points on defense. The Gobert-only lineups are the photo negative.
Russell is slumping after a hot start. Edwards is barely 21. It's a lot to ask of him -- especially as a passer -- to be the lead playmaker and scorer on a team with deep playoff ambitions. Edwards has already made comments about the difficulty of getting to the rim amid traffic, and how much he likes small-ball lineups. Meanwhile, Towns took a shot at Edwards' diet. Gulp.
I'd still (tentatively) bet on Minnesota snaring a top-six seed, but the road appears bumpier than anticipated.
5. Baby steps off the ball for Trae Young
Give me more of this:
The Dejounte Murray-Young pairing -- for which Atlanta paid an enormous price -- won't reach its potential unless Young engages his off-ball movement mode.
Young is the team's best ball handler and passer; you don't want to siphon too much offense away from him. Murray has nailed 43% on catch-and-shoot 3s, so he has been more effective than expected as a floor-spacer. If he hovers around 40%, defenses will start guarding him more closely.
But that will take time, and Murray's track record is uneven. He needs the ball more than anyone Young has ever played with, and Young has to accommodate him some.
Young is still spending too many Murray-centric possessions chilling near half-court or in the corners. He's useful there; defenses face-guard him everywhere. But he could raise hell running basic off-ball actions. It doesn't have to be complicated. That's a simple pin-down that morphs into a pick-and-roll between Young and Onyeka Okongwu -- with no other defenders on their side of the floor to help. Pascal Siakam rushes in from the other side, leaving John Collins open.
Young is using about 11.5 off-ball picks per 100 possessions, up from a career average of seven, per Second Spectrum. That's a good start, but that number should jump toward at least 15 or 20. A lot of those picks come on scripted out of timeout plays; they fade away in the flow of the game.
Clint Capela screens for Young to cut across the foul line. Young fakes that way, sees his man (Barrett) shoot the gap, and moonwalks into open space. Barrett scrambles to catch up, leaving him vulnerable to Young's step-back.
It's hard to get an early feel for the Hawks. They're 5-3 against a cupcake schedule, with a middling plus-7 point differential. They're plus-51 with Young and Murray on the floor, but losing the minutes when either goes solo. Bogdan Bogdanovic would stabilize the wing rotation, and allow Nate McMillan to use De'Andre Hunter at power forward more.
Atlanta's next nine games are against good teams.
6. The Toronto Raptors got weirder, and it's amazing
The Raptors spent last season exploring the power of collective length. Their core lineups consisted of Fred VanVleet and four tall people with amorphous positions. When VanVleet rested, they sometimes dispensed with point guards and played five large, switchable humans. It was fun, impenetrable on defense, sometimes claggy (to use a term I learned from Paul Hollywood and Paul Hollywood's mesmerizing blue laser eyes) on offense, always unusual.
Their nominal centers were Precious Achiuwa and Khem Birch -- 6-8 and 6-9, respectively. Toronto upsized by drafting a 7-1 rim-protector in Christian Koloko, and, my god, are they gigantic now. In one recent game with VanVleet out, they tried a lineup of Gary Trent Jr., Pascal Siakam, Chris Boucher, Achiuwa, and Koloko. To "go smaller," they swapped Scottie Barnes in for Boucher.
Koloko is young and raw, but the Raptors are allowing only 97 points per 100 possessions in his minutes -- way stingier than the Milwaukee Bucks' league-best defense. Opponents are shooting 53% at the rim with Koloko nearby -- a mark that would typically rank among the lowest leaguewide.
The Raps' long arms are snagging 10.8 steals per game, by far the most in the league. Only 50 teams have cracked the 10.5 mark over a full season, per Basketball-Reference data -- none since 1998-99. The Raptors are sprinting to 25.6 fast-break points per game -- seven more (!) than the No. 2 team. That is the equivalent to the gap between Nos. 2 and 27. They rank No. 1 in almost every measure of transition offense.
They're also No. 1 in defensive rebounding rate after ranking in the bottom 10 last season, and they are running like hell off those boards. They turn the entire court into a blur.
The Raptors need those transition points. They rank 24th in half-court offense, per Cleaning the Glass, and can bog down into one-on-one play. Only the Dallas Mavericks average more isolations per 100 possessions.
That's somewhat by design. One trickle-down effect of having so much size -- and causing matchup chaos in transition -- is that at least one and often two or three Raptors have exploitable mismatches.
Siakam is turning those into the best scoring and passing season of his career: 25.5 points, 9.6 rebounds, 7.9 dimes. Barnes looks every bit the rising superstar Toronto refused to discuss in any Kevin Durant trade talks. Everyone else is finding their way. O.G. Anunoby has been a terror on defense -- he leads the league in steals -- but his usage is down a tick on offense. Achiuwa's jumper is cold; his minutes have fluctuated. Thaddeus Young is out of the rotation. Otto Porter Jr. just debuted.
Trent brings semi-reliable scoring, and Boucher has been one of the league's best two-way bench players early.
If this team finds its footing in the half-court, watch out.
7. James Harden's weird aversion to catch-and-shoot 3s
In Harden's second season with the Houston Rockets, he had an even split between catch-and-shoot and pull-up 3s. By 2018-19, he was launching 12.1 pull-up 3s per game and 0.9 catch-and-shoots.
Harden either deemed catch-and-shoot 3s boring or lost his rhythm on them. That wasn't a problem when entire offenses revolved around him, but now Harden plays alongside two dominant scorers in Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. Harden remains the No. 1 initiator, but he needs to start launching these:
Harden is 15-of-46 on pull-up 3s and 4-of-11 on catch-and-shoots. He is talented enough to demur on these looks and conjure something good -- provided there is time on the shot clock. But sometimes there is not a better shot around the corner.
It will be fascinating to see how the Sixers adapt over the next month with Harden injured -- if they play faster, with more oomph.
8. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander somehow got craftier
Guarding Gilgeous-Alexander was already like trying to grab a fish with your bare hands, but he's become a straight-up optical illusion.
I've written that different parts of Gilgeous-Alexander's body can appear to be moving in different directions -- and at different speeds -- at the same time, and this is what I mean.
Gilgeous-Alexander slows as he approaches Darius Bazley's screen. Most of his body then lurches to the left, only Gilgeous-Alexander also seems to be dribbling to his right. Franz Wagner has no clue what to do. He lunges the wrong way.
But that's not all! Instead of using Bazley's screen, Gilgeous-Alexander slices inside of it -- surprising the Magic defense. (Prime Derrick Rose pulled this trick.)
Gilgeous-Alexander leads the league in drives for the second straight season. The Oklahoma City Thunder are scoring 1.250 points per possession on any trip featuring a Gilgeous-Alexander drive -- an elite mark, per Second Spectrum tracking.
Gilgeous-Alexander has 12 post-ups already. That doesn't sound like much, but he's only eclipsed that number once -- when he recorded 15 in 56 games last season, per Second Spectrum.
The early results are promising.
Kevin McHale would be proud of that up-and-under. Also, please look at where this shot hits the backboard before dripping into the basket:
This guy.
You'll hear debate over the next year about what kind of role Gilgeous-Alexander could play on a great team. He wouldn't handle the ball quite this much. He's a 34.7% career 3-point shooter, so his utility as a secondary option is unclear.
But black-and-white debates are reductive. Gilgeous-Alexander is really good. He's averaging 32.3 points and hitting 56% on 2s for a rebuilding team with a turnstile rotation; the Thunder's starting five seem to change game to game, sometimes half to half.
Gilgeous-Alexander has also hit 40% or above on catch-and-shoot 3s in four straight seasons (including this one), and that bodes well for how his game would translate to more talented teams. Ditto for those post-ups. The more tools you have, the more malleable you are.
9. Keegan Murray's opportunism
Amid yet another poor start, the owners of the longest and most embarrassing playoff drought in U.S. pro sports can take solace in this: Murray is going to be good for a long time.
Murray's not a highflier. He's not flashy. He's a distant third or fourth option right now. Murray has the rebounding rate of a small guard, but he gets an early pass because the Kings are second in defensive rebounding.
Murray is just a basketball player. He has good feel, digests information fast, and can respond in lots of different ways. He's a smart cutter. The threat of his jumper means the Kings can use him as a screener in pick-and-rolls. When defenses switch those actions, Murray has flashed a steady bully-ball game against smaller defenders:
That's not explosive or graceful, but it works. Send help, and Murray will make the right pass.
The Kings have thrown him into the deep end with tough matchups on defense -- both wings and power forwards -- and Murray has held his own more than most rookies would.
10. The NBA's new zip-up trim
We on Team Casual have been steadfast in our anti-suit crusade for nigh a decade. We have made many enemies on Team Suit. Those grudges will last generations. Some have even defected, lured by the snobbishness of fashion elitism.
But we persevered, and prevailed. This is the third season of coaching casual after the Orlando bubble of 2020 birthed it, and there appears to be no going back. The coaches have spoken. The casual looks -- the quarter-zips and all their comfortable relatives -- are only getting cooler.
The league and Nike have unveiled a snazzy new quarter-zip in which one team color forms the base, and another -- often a brighter shade -- serves as trim.
I know nothing about style, but that works. The blood-red lining pops.
Check out the full Indiana Pacers' bench, sporting navy quarter-zips with golden trim:
Save the suits for formal events.