What does Joel Embiid's injury mean to the Philadelphia 76ers' chances of reaching the Eastern Conference finals for the first time since drafting Embiid in 2014 as the centerpiece of their rebuilding process?
On Friday, the Sixers announced that Embiid suffered an orbital fracture and a concussion during the late stages of Thursday's Game 6 win to close out the Toronto Raptors. ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported Sunday that Embiid would not travel with Philadelphia to Miami for the first two games of their series against the Heat but could return for Game 3 or 4 back at home.
That means the Sixers must prepare to play at least the next two games without Embiid, a finalist for the NBA's MVP award this season. Embiid was a strong candidate in part because he played a career-high 68 games this season, missing just four since a stint in the NBA's health and safety protocols in November.
Let's take a look at how the Sixers might adjust their offense with James Harden set to play without Embiid for the first time since being traded to Philadelphia.
How Philadelphia's attack must shift without Embiid
Embiid's durability this season makes it difficult to predict how the 76ers will play in his absence. Remarkably, Harden has yet to play without Embiid, having missed both games (including a seven-point home loss to the Heat in March) that Embiid sat out after the trade deadline.
It's hardly challenging to predict that Philadelphia's attack will be different stylistically. Embiid has been an enormous part of the team's offense; his 37% usage rate this season ranked 10th all-time since individual turnovers were tracked starting in 1977-78 (minimum 1,000 minutes) per Stathead.com. Given Embiid's unique ability as a scorer in the post and out of isolations, the Sixers can't shift those possessions to whoever replaces him in the lineup.
Instead, most of them will surely go to the perimeter trio of Harden, Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris. Harris boosted his scoring average per 36 minutes from 17.4 to 21.2 in nine games without Embiid this season, while Maxey's skyrocketed from 16.2 to 24.8.
After veterans Paul Millsap and DeAndre Jordan proved lacking as backups for Embiid, Philadelphia coach Doc Rivers embraced using energetic second-year big man Paul Reed in those minutes late in the regular season and against Toronto. Reed solidified non-Embiid lineups, though the Raptors still outscored the Sixers by seven points in 44 minutes with Embiid on the bench and Harden on the court during the first round.
Harden and Reed have developed pick-and-roll chemistry, and Reed will undoubtedly play a key role in Embiid's absence. Rivers told reporters Sunday he also plans to use Jordan, Millsap and rookie Charles Bassey. Nonetheless, Philly's best strategy with Embiid out might be to go small and stretch the floor with Georges Niang as a center.
Admittedly, the 6-foot-7 Niang provides limited resistance at the rim. His 13 blocks this season were a career high. That's the reason Rivers all but abandoned using Niang at the 5 after experimenting with it early in the season; 72 of Niang's 91 minutes as the Sixers' center came in October and November, per analysis of lineup data from NBA Advanced Stats.
Philadelphia might need Niang's floor spacing to give Harden and Maxey the ability to get to the basket when they beat their defenders in this series. Miami opponents attempted a league-low 17.3 shots per game in the restricted area, according to Second Spectrum tracking, a measure of how aggressively the Heat have protected the rim.
The flip side of that strategy: Miami also gives up 3-pointers in bunches, as an NBA-high 46% of their opponents' shot attempts came from beyond the arc. Niang, a 40% career 3-point shooter who made a career-high 2.1 per game this season, can feast on those opportunities when his defenders help and make them think twice about crowding the paint.
Playing Niang at center might also be more palatable in this series because the Heat don't put much pressure on the rim on offense. Their own 18.2 shot attempts per game in the restricted area were fourth lowest in the NBA, per Second Spectrum.
Can Sixers steal a win without Embiid?
The obvious comparison for Embiid's injury is when he suffered an identical one during March 2018, which required surgery and sidelined him for more than three weeks. Back then, Embiid missed the first two games of Philadelphia's first-round series against these same Heat. The 76ers managed to split those games at home and won all three after Embiid's return, taking the series 4-1.
This time around, the 76ers will have to start on the road, making the timing of Embiid's injury more difficult -- especially with Miami guard Kyle Lowry ruled out for Game 1. A healthy Philadelphia team would have had an excellent opportunity to steal home court in the series with the Heat short-handed.
With Harden, the Sixers have enough offense to win without Embiid, particularly if they go small. The big question is whether Philadelphia can get enough stops without its defensive anchor and whether he returns for Game 3 or Game 4.
It's worth noting that Miami was already favored before Embiid's injury. Prior to the news, the lines at Caesars Sportsbook (+150 for the Sixers, -180 for the Heat) implied a 38% chance of Philadelphia winning the series. The current line (+280 for the Sixers, -360 for the Heat) has cut that to 24%.
If the 76ers can steal one of the first two games and Embiid returns for Game 3, Philly still has a good chance of making this a long series and potentially winning. If Embiid misses more than two games and the Sixers are winless without him, it's possible his return might come too late.