The Utah Jazz have all but confirmed that roster continuity has an expiration date.
Utah returned the same roster without wholesale changes, thinking that the mistakes from last year's LA Clippers series would not be repeated.
But a series loss to an undermanned Dallas Mavericks without Luka Doncic for the first three games (two resulted in losses) proved them wrong.
Following the resignation of coach Quin Snyder, Utah's offseason now shifts to one of the most important questions in franchise history. Does Utah look to explore moving either Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert, or go with a complete rebuild and trade both All-Stars?
State of the team
Roster status: In flux
In March 2021, the Jazz were trending in the right direction. Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley Jr. were named to the All-Star game, and Utah was heading toward the best record in the NBA.
The distinction earned them a spot at No. 8 in ESPN's Annual Future Power Rankings because the health of the organization was secure for the foreseeable future. Gobert and Mitchell had just signed five-year max extensions (Conley would eventually follow on a three-year deal), and it was now up to the Jazz front office to continue adding the right players around them.
What transpired was the ill-fated loss to the Clippers without Kawhi Leonard, and a roster that had won 52 games was exposed on the defensive end.
"It was a tough night in many respects on the defensive end, but I certainly wouldn't jump to any type of conclusion," Snyder said after the Game 6 loss to Los Angeles last year.
Instead of breaking up the roster, Utah decided to run it back, added veterans Rudy Gay and Hassan Whiteside and thought the playoff loss would serve as a learning experience and motivation.
This season the Jazz finished with a respectable 49 wins but once again underachieved in the playoffs. Team continuity eventually turned into a failure but with several warning signs along the way.
Utah finished 23rd in clutch time net efficiency during the season. They lost six games when leading by 10+ points in the fourth quarter (tied with the Knicks for the most).
The root of their issues was poor perimeter defense, which was set up by continuously getting beat off the dribble. Mitchell's struggles at the end of the games didn't help.
The Jazz contested 83.5% of 3-pointers, the third lowest rate in the league this season, per Second Spectrum tracking. Last year, they ranked 29th in that category.
Mitchell shot 33% in clutch time, the third worst field goal percentage among 37 players to attempt 50 shots in the final five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime with the score within five points, according to ESPN Stats & Information research. He made only six out of the 32 attempts from 3 and shot just 25% on field goal attempts from at least 10 feet.
The defensive deficiencies and Mitchell's struggles at the end of games came to life again in the first round.
The Mavericks attempted the most 3-point attempts (41.6) and were second in 3-pointers made (15.2). In the Games 2 and 3 losses, Mitchell shot 25% from the field in the last five minutes of the game.
To make matters worse, a Jazz offense that was heavily reliant on 3-pointers (they ranked second in makes and attempts during the regular season) stalled in the playoffs. In the loss to Dallas, they attempted the third fewest 3-pointers per game among playoff teams (28.8) and ranked last in 3-pointers made per game (8.0).
This offseason now presents more questions than last year.
There is a two-year body of work in the postseason that indicates a need for change. But where would the Jazz even start? And is ownership willing to spend on a roster that lost in the first round?
The Jazz return eleven players and once again project to have one of the top payrolls in the NBA.
Their 2022 first-round pick is owned by the Memphis Grizzlies as part of the Conley trade, and a 2024 protected first was sent to Oklahoma City to dump the $20 million owed to Derrick Favors. The earliest a first can be sent in a deal is 2026, but that is only if the top-10 first to the Thunder is conveyed in 2024. In the second round, they have only three picks available (2025, 2026 and 2029).
Outside of Mitchell and Gobert, their tradable contracts consist of Conley, Jordan Clarkson, Royce O'Neale, Rudy Gay and Bojan Bogdanovic. The rest of the roster consists of Juancho Hernangomez, Jared Butler, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Udoka Azubuike. The five players were not part of the playoff rotation, with only Hernangomez seeing meaningful minutes.
The Jazz do have the $6.3 million tax midlevel and $9.8 million trade exception to use, but that would come at a financial penalty. Remember, Gay signed the same midlevel exception last offseason and did not appear in the playoffs.
If Utah wants a roster shakeup, it could start with a decision on the future of their All-Stars.
Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert
Breaking up the Mitchell and Gobert pairing should not be a conversation-starter considering the two just signed five-year max extensions and are not set to become free agents until the 2025 offseason (both have a player option for 2025-26).
The contract status of both players and their impact on both sides of the ball should have Utah wanting to build around them, not dissolving their partnership.
Mitchell is coming off a regular season during which he averaged 25.9 points, the second time in his career that he averaged at least 25 points -- the only other Jazz players to do so are Karl Malone, Adrian Dantley and Pete Maravich. However, on the defensive end, he ranked tied for 256th, according to FiveFiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR metric, which uses play-by-play and player-tracking data to measure a player's impact.
While Mitchell struggles defensively, Gobert is the Jazz's anchor.
When Gobert is on the court, Utah ranks No. 1 in defensive efficiency. When he was off the court, they were tied for 21st with the Los Angeles Lakers. Gobert also ranked third in field goal percentage allowed at the rim and had the lowest efficiency in points allowed per drive (0.84) when he was the help defender, per ESPN Stats & Information.
It is a fair point to say Gobert was exposed by the Clippers and Mavericks' small-ball tactics in their series, but that has more to do with Utah's poor perimeter defense and asking a 7-foot-1 center to provide help defense.
The strength of Gobert on defense is met with flaws offensively.
Gobert is not a perimeter threat and relies heavily on second-chance opportunities (28.7% of his offense and the most among all players) and lobs (third most).
The strength of his game -- screen assists and shots off pick-and-rolls -- were marginalized in the Dallas series. Utah averaged 1.04 points per direct pick when Gobert was the screener in the regular season, according to Second Spectrum. That number dropped to 0.85 points in the first round. Gobert also ranked top-10 in shots made in the pick-and-roll this season, but made only five in the Dallas series.
Can Mitchell and Gobert co-exist? If the answer is yes, then how does this roster improve? And if not, which of the two could Utah explore moving?
This question will define the Jazz offseason.
Offseason cap breakdown and depth chart
Utah Jazz 2022-23 Salary Breakdown
Not including the $7.4 million non-guaranteed contract of Juancho Hernangomez, the Jazz are right at the $149 million luxury tax with ten players under contract.
If Hernangomez is waived, Utah will exceed the tax threshold once their roster is filled out.
They will have the $6.4 million tax midlevel exception.
Team needs
Wings
Backup point guard and center
Resources to build the roster
Exceptions: $6.4 million (midlevel) and $9.8M (trade)
Expiring contracts: More than $30 million
Cash: $6.3 million to send or receive via trade
Dates to watch
June 29: Eric Paschall ($2.1M), Trent Forrest ($1.8M) and Xavier Sneed ($50K) are eligible to receive a Qualifying Offer. Paschall averaged a career-low 12.7 minutes in the regular season.
June 30: The Jazz can receive some tax relief in the $7.3 million non-guaranteed contract of Juancho Hernangomez. The move would save Utah over $10 million in tax penalties. Acquired at the trade deadline, Hernangomez averaged 17.5 minutes, 6.2 points and shot 43.8% from 3. The Jazz have the veteran minimum exception to replace him if he is waived.
Restrictions
The Jazz sent Memphis their 2022 first and owe Oklahoma City a first with protection in 2024, 2025 and 2026. The earliest they can send out a future first is two years after the Thunder pick has been conveyed.
Donovan Mitchell has a 15% trade bonus in his contract. Because the bonus would exceed the maximum salary of his contract, the bonus is voided in a trade.
Extension eligible
Bojan Bogdanovic is set to enter the last year of his contract and is extension eligible. The forward this season shot 39% on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers, ranking in the top-15 among all players. If the Jazz extend him for more than two seasons or a salary increase that exceeds 5%, he would be ineligible to be traded for up to six months. Utah was 45-24 this season in the games he played.
Last year's Sixth Man of the Year Jordan Clarkson is entering year three of a four-year contract that he signed in 2020 and is also extension eligible. Because Clarkson has a $14.3 million player option in 2023-24, the Jazz have the option of extending off that number for an additional three seasons or removing the option and extending for four years starting in 2022-23. Clarkson averaged 16 points this season and shot 38.9% from three in the playoffs.
Juancho Hernangomez (if his contract is guaranteed) and Nickeil Alexander-Walker are also extension eligible. The Jazz do not have a first or second pick in this year's draft. Their own first was sent to Memphis as part of the Mike Conley trade. From the Derrick Favors trade last offseason, Utah will send Oklahoma City a 2024 top-10, 2025 top-10 or 2026 top-8 protected first. The Jazz are also restricted on sending out a future second in a trade. Their lone picks are a second in 2025, 2026 and 2029.
NBA draft
The Jazz do not have a first or second in this year's draft.
Their own first was sent to Memphis as part of the Mike Conley trade.
From the Derrick Favors trade last offseason, Utah will send Oklahoma City a 2024 top-10, 2025 top-10 or 2026 top-8 protected first. The Jazz are also restricted on sending out a future second in a trade.
Their lone picks are a second in 2025, 2026 and 2029.