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          NBA Rookie Power Rankings: Best-case All-Star comps for the 2021-22 freshmen class

          Cleveland Cavaliers big Evan Mobley, tops in the Rookie Power Rankings, has the upside of Los Angeles Lakers forward Anthony Davis. PI/Zuma Press/Icon Sportswire
          • Mike SchmitzFeb 18, 2022, 07:00 AM ET

          With NBA All-Star Weekend in full force, we're taking a different approach for ESPN's third Rookie Power Rankings. While the top-10 ranking is still based on which rookies have been most valuable so far this season, we're including an All-Star comparison. This comparison is what each rookie projects to be when he's at his peak, if said player indeed maximizes his potential.

          Cleveland Cavaliers forward Evan Mobley's upside compares favorably with an eight-time NBA All-Star, while Oklahoma City Thunder guard Josh Giddey has the potential to mirror another former teen starting point guard who made his first All-Star team this season.

          It's unprecedented to have 10 All-Stars (let alone five) from a single draft class, even one as highly touted and impressive as the 2021 crop. Keep in mind, this is not a re-draft or a ranking based on future potential, but rather a fluid list that spells out which rookies have been most valuable up until the All-Star break.

          1. Evan Mobley | Cleveland Cavaliers

          Best-case All-Star comp: Anthony Davis

          Previous ranking: 1

          While our pre-draft comparisons to Chris Bosh and Davis might have seemed lofty at the time, it's not out of the question to envision Mobley having a Davis-like career trajectory as an agile, rim-protecting 4/5 who can create offense from the perimeter. Davis' rookie year stats (we use per-40 minutes to adjust for the difference in playing time) edge out Mobley's in every category but assists, yet it's important to consider the situation, as Mobley has been a driving force in the Cavs' resurgence that has them fourth in the East. The Pelicans and Davis, who ranked fourth behind Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson and Grevis Vásquez in scoring as a rookie, finished 27-55 in 2012-13.

          According to NBA.com, Mobley ranks second in the NBA (behind only Jarrett Allen) in DFG%, ahead of Rudy Gobert, Davis and Myles Turner. Combine that with the fact that Mobley is already one of the best switch defenders in the league and you have a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate as well as a hub you can run the offense through in the half court, especially as he matures physically and sharpens his 3-ball. Mobley remains atop our Rookie Power Rankings because of his two-way impact on a true playoff contender. There's an argument to be made that because of his passing and stellar approach to the game, he has an even higher upside than Davis, the eight-time All-Star and former NBA champion.

          2. Cade Cunningham | Detroit Pistons

          Best-case All-Star comp: Luka Doncic

          Previous ranking: 2

          Before a recent hip injury slowed his momentum, Cunningham was on his way to overtaking the top spot in our Rookie Power Rankings after averaging 17.3 points, 5.6 assists, 4.2 rebounds and 3.1 turnovers while shooting 45% from 2 and 37% from 3 in January (15 games). Even his down games had Rookie of the Year moments, highlighted by a 19-point, 10-rebound, 10-assist triple-double after going scoreless (0-for-10) in the first half of an eventual win over the Cavs. The No. 1 pick has struggled mightily in the four games since returning from injury, however, shooting just 39% from 2, 28% from 3 and totaling more turnovers than assists with major struggles finishing around the rim and knocking down open looks.

          As we saw during the first month of the season, Cunningham is a rhythm-reliant player who takes time to get into a flow after shaking off an injury, which suggests brighter days are ahead post All-Star break. When you consider the totality of his rookie campaign so far (15.7 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 5.1 APG, 44% from 2, 33% from 3), his productivity is more in line with Brandon Roy's rookie year (16.8 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 4 APG, 48% from 2, 38% from 3) than Doncic's (21.2 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 6 APG, 50% from 2, 33% from 3). Although Roy was two years older and two inches shorter than Cunningham during his rookie season, the two hold some similarities in terms of the pace at which they play, and Roy won Rookie of the Year in 2007 before being named to three All-Star games and then ultimately having to retire early due to injury.

          Comparing Cunningham to a healthy Roy is nothing to sneeze at. Yet as a 6-foot-8 lead shot creator who can knock down step-back 3s, spray one-handed passes all over the floor and use his size to dislodge sturdy defenders, the best version of Cunningham has hints of Doncic to his game, with slightly more off-ball versatility and defensive upside. For Cunningham to reach those heights, he'll have to find more ways to draw fouls (5.8 FTAs at Oklahoma State vs. 2 FTAs with Detroit) like Doncic does as well as fully tapping into his playmaking potential, which might not come until he's surrounded with more shooting (Detroit ranks 30th in 3P%).

          Despite his recent lull, Cunningham is one of just five under-23 players averaging 15 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists, joining Doncic, Ball, Ja Morant and Cole Anthony. With the Pistons likely firmly in the Chet Holmgren-Jabari Smith sweepstakes, I'd expect a big second half of the season for Cunningham, who I still think will ultimately take home Rookie of the Year honors.

          3. Josh Giddey | Oklahoma City Thunder

          Best-case All-Star comp: LaMelo Ball

          Previous ranking: 5

          Let me be clear: Giddey isn't the same caliber of prospect as Ball, whom we had ranked No. 1 and who looks on pace to become one of the faces of the NBA for the next decade. Even so, there are elements of Giddey's game that rival Ball, who also spent his draft-eligible year playing in the Australian NBL. Ball is a far superior shooter with Trae Young-like range that Giddy doesn't have. He's also quicker with the ball in his hands, which has played a role in his 30-point outbursts. Giddey, on the other hand, gets by more off size and deception. With that said, it's Giddey's ambidextrous, off-the-dribble passing -- along with his rebounding instincts -- that rival the reigning Rookie of the Year. Over the course of the last decade, few teenage guards such as Doncic and Ball have come into the league capable of hitting the weakside corner shooter in pick-and-roll with regularity. Giddey, who has recorded three consecutive triple-doubles, joins them, as he's been absolutely surgical with his deliveries, putting high-velocity passes on the money with equal parts accuracy and force.

          Giddey is incredibly patient in pick-and-roll, using his size to keep his defender on his back before working his way to the rim or finding the roller in stride. He still has his fair share of unforced turnovers and has issues separating against elite defenders. Because of that, along with his streaky jumper, Giddey doesn't have the scoring upside of a Ball; he's more in line with an oversized, 6-9 Ricky Rubio as a half-court scorer. But the shooting is coming along, and the live-dribble passing is special. Like Ball, Giddey figures to rank among the best passers in the NBA sooner than later. Over his last five games, the 19-year-old Aussie is averaging 15.6 points, 9.8 rebounds and 8.6 assists while shooting 44% from 3, good enough to boost him to third on our list.

          4. Scottie Barnes | Toronto Raptors

          Best-case All-Star comp: Scottie Pippen

          Previous ranking: 3

          Barnes isn't quite putting up the raw scoring numbers we saw earlier in the season, but still ranks in the top five among rookies in points, rebounds, assists and minutes (first) with quite a few "wow" moments on both ends of the floor. Finding a high-end, best-case All-Star comp for Barnes is no easy feat. I often compared Barnes to a new-age Draymond Green throughout the pre-draft process given his combination of length, ballhandling, court vision, defensive versatility and winning spirit. It turns out, some of Toronto's best half-court offense has actually come when they use Barnes as the screener to generate 4-on-3 short roll situations, where he's excellent at making quick, accurate reads like we've seen from Green.

          But the Green comparison massively undersells Barnes' dynamic transition attacks and the glimpses of shooting (and overall scoring) potential, which is way ahead of schedule. Even if he's not quite the defensive genius or sturdy rim protector Green is (few are), Barnes' offensive ceiling is far higher given his Giannis-like strides and willingness to take open shots and even create jumpers for himself off the bounce. You'd hear comparisons ranging from Green to rich man's Kyle Anderson to Ben Simmons to Andre Iguodala in reference to Barnes during the pre-draft process. Yet given his combination of potential defensive versatility, open court playmaking and offensive upside, stylistically there are glimpses of similarities to Pippen. This isn't to say Barnes will be a top-25 to top-50 player of all time with six championships and seven All-Star appearances. Pippen's progression from collegiate team manager to NBA legend is one of the most unlikely trajectories the league has ever seen.

          But as a do-it-all forward who could theoretically guard all five positions in a pinch and function as a No. 2 option on a championship-caliber team, Pippen is a great template for Barnes to strive for. Barnes still has games where he'll look slow on the floor, clank open jumpers, gamble wildly defensively and not look at the rim from the perimeter. But there's a case to be made that he has as much long-term upside as any player in this rookie class, with Pippen (and a hint of new-age Green) as an intriguing archetype for him to model his game after.

          5. Franz Wagner | Orlando Magic

          Best-case All-Star comp: Gordon Hayward

          Previous ranking: 4

          Wagner has continued his fantastic campaign since our last Rookie Power Rankings, averaging 15.2 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 3.1 assists on 52% from 2 and 43% from 3 over his last 10 games. If it weren't for Giddey's emergence, Wagner would have likely held onto his top-four ranking because of his two-way play, efficient style and all-around impact, as he is in the top 10 among rookies in points, rebounds, assists and 3-point percentage.

          Several comparisons come to mind for Wagner. On the low end, Nicolas Batum is one I've always thought of with Wagner given their versatility on both ends, playmaking ability, capable floor spacing and team-centric style. Given that this exercise is about comparing this rookie class to current or former All-Stars, however, Batum doesn't qualify. Mike Dunleavy Jr. is another non-All-Star whom Wagner has shades of given his size and touch. Andrei Kirilenko is a throwback name I considered given the versatility at 6-9, yet Wagner isn't quite that type of all-world defender, and he's a much better shooter than Kirilenko, who surprisingly made just one All-Star game. Khris Middleton is a more modern candidate as a floor-spacing wing who can play pick-and-roll (over 20% of Wagner's possessions) and add value off the catch. Yet young Middleton was the more gifted as a ball handler, midrange shooter and isolation scorer, while Wagner is the better cutter and defender at the same stage. Two-time All-Star Luol Deng was yet another combo forward I considered given his versatility on both ends of the floor and winning impact yet the shooting didn't quite line up.

          Although Wagner is almost two inches taller, Hayward is the name I settled on. Both were two-and-done top-10 picks who won in college and piqued the interest of NBA scouts because of their versatility and winning impact. In their current form, Wagner and Hayward are big wings who can handle the ball, shoot off the catch or the dribble, pass and know how to play with or without the ball while bringing solid vertical explosiveness to the floor. Drafted into two different organizational situations, it took Hayward longer than it has Wagner -- the better defender of the two -- to settle into the NBA, and you could argue that the 20-year-old Magic rookie ultimately has the higher upside given his size. Whether he surpasses Hayward's one All-Star game or not, Orlando would surely be pleased with peak Hayward as the long-term outcome for the German forward.

          6. Jonathan Kuminga | Golden State Warriors

          Best-case All-Star comp: Jaylen Brown

          Previous ranking: 7

          While Kuminga earned a spot inside our top 10 thanks to his incredible flashes of talent and athletic feats during last month's Rookie Power Rankings, he's now knocking on the door of the top five thanks to his relatively consistent production on a Warriors team that sits second in the West. Some of that is a product of Green's injury, but Kuminga has played 22 minutes or more in every game this month, reaching double-figure scoring in all eight. In 15 games as a starter, the 19-year-old is averaging 15.1 points, 5.5 rebounds and 2.2 steals in 28.3 minutes while shooting 49% from 2 and 33% from 3. Playing 36% of his minutes at small-ball center, Kuminga has embraced the role of off-ball cutter, transition finisher and offensive rebounder, slipping out of screens for ferocious dunks and diving to the rim on dribble penetration, eating up the space that shooters like Steph Curry and Klay Thompson create.

          He's running the floor harder, making open 3s and even showed he's physically capable of defending LeBron James during a recent win over the Lakers. Although his consistency defensively and as a rebounder still needs work, Kuminga leads all rookies in points per 40 minutes and has clearly earned the trust of coach Steve Kerr, suggesting he's cemented his spot in the rotation even when Green returns.

          As for his All-Star comp, I've long viewed Kuminga to have a Jaylen Brown type of ceiling. It's important to note that Brown has never played any center for the Celtics, and he now spends 49% of his time at the 2 for coach Ime Udoka, according to CleaningTheGlass.com. A big part of Kuminga's scoring success is a product of being defended by slower-footed centers (e.g. DeMarcus Cousins) who have no chance to check him in space. Kuminga is also a hair bigger with even more physicality and vertical pop than a young Brown, who was more talented with the ball on the perimeter.

          Yet, few NBA teams would have used Kuminga at the 5 the way Golden State has (a brilliant move thus far) and there are still more layers to his game that could ultimately help him evolve into a combo-forward version of the Celtics star. In terms of a long-armed, physical forward who can slow the NBA's best wings, play above the rim, score out of the midpost and eventually create from the perimeter, there are some similarities between the two at the same stage of development, especially when you consider the competitive situations they were drafted into as role players on title contenders.

          7. Ayo Dosunmu | Chicago Bulls

          Best-case All-Star comp: Jrue Holiday

          Previous ranking: 10

          Although out of necessity with Chicago depleted by injury, Dosunmu has become arguably the league's most durable rookie as a regular starter on a Bulls team tied for first in the East. The former Illinois star is averaging 38 minutes per game in his 20 starts, shooting a remarkable 63% from 2 and 40% from 3 during that stretch while adding value as a defender, spot shooter and secondary ball handler. While different in terms of trajectory, Holiday, who was a one-and-done top-20 pick, is an excellent template. Like Dosunmu, Holiday entered the league as a defensive-minded combo guard who played off of talented shot creators like Iguodala because of his toughness, spot shooting and solid all-around feel for the game.

          Those qualities are the same reasons Dosunmu fits next to veterans DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic. Like Holiday, Dosunmu may never be the primary shot creator on a championship team, but he has an incredibly high floor as a two-way guard who knows how the game and fits well alongside other stars, which ultimately played a role in the Bucks star developing into one of the league's most underrated players and an eventual All-Star.

          8. Herb Jones | New Orleans Pelicans

          Best-case All-Star comp: Andre Iguodala

          Previous ranking: 6

          Jones remains firmly in the top-10 mix given his two-way impact on a Pelicans team hoping to make a push for the play-in game after the addition of CJ McCollum. Jones' on/off numbers remain among the best in this rookie class, and he's stayed efficient in his low-volume role through eight games in February, shooting 73% from 2 and 41% from 3 on over 2 attempts per game. So, who is Jones' high-end All-Star comp? While not quite as springy or strong, Jones could ultimately play a Golden State version of Iguodala for a playoff team when he's at his peak, defending multiple positions, handling the ball, making heady reads and doing all the little things that impact winning.

          Jones -- who entered the NBA 2½ years older than Iguodala did -- will likely never average 18 points like the former Arizona wing did for three consecutive seasons in Philly. But Jones does have the length, smarts, feet, motor and hands to develop into the All-NBA defender Iguodala did over the course of his career. Like Iguodala later in his career, Jones is the type of Swiss Army knife forward whose value may never be fully appreciated by traditional box score production, yet every teammate, coach and front-office member wants on the floor as often as possible.

          9. Chris Duarte | Indiana Pacers

          Best-case All-Star comp: Devin Booker

          Previous ranking: 9

          While several other rookies have emerged (Cam Thomas) or re-emerged (Davion Mitchell) since the last Rookie Power Rankings, Duarte has done little to suggest that he doesn't belong in the top 10 when healthy, and he appears to be a strong fit alongside Tyrese Haliburton given his off-ball value and Haliburton's ball-moving style. Over the last month, Duarte has gone for 27 points on just 16 shots in a win over the Golden State Warriors, 17-4-4 against the Phoenix Suns, and 25 points and four assists on just 16 shots against the Atlanta Hawks before ultimately suffering a jammed toe that will keep him out of Friday's Rising Stars game.

          He's clearly not the second coming of his best case All-Star comparison, Booker, who is only four months older than Duarte despite already having three All-Star selections to his name. But stylistically, Duarte has a bit of Booker in him in terms of his effortless shooting mechanics, midrange game, underrated pick-and-roll passing and physical profile. A more realistic template for Duarte is Memphis Grizzlies guard Desmond Bane (not yet an All-Star), a fellow collegiate upperclassman who went far lower in the draft than he should have given his age and lack of perceived upside. The fact that Duarte turns 25 in June makes you wonder if he'll be able to make the same Year 2 leap Bane (23) did as a sophomore. But as it stands now, NBA fans should sit back and enjoy Duarte's Booker-esque pull-up, pick-and-roll pace and productivity alongside one of the most coveted young point guards in the NBA in Haliburton.

          10. Davion Mitchell | Sacramento Kings

          Best-case All-Star comp: Kyle Lowry

          In the spirit of rewarding two-way play (Dosunmu and Jones) over dynamic scorers (Jalen Green and Thomas), Mitchell, who debuted at No. 9 on our first edition of Rookie Power Rankings, has worked his way back into the top 10 with his play as of late. His defense was never in question, as he's already established himself as one of the best on-ball defenders in the NBA, passing both the eye test on tape and ranking in the top five in isolation and pick-and-roll defense in terms of points allowed out of those actions. The Kings allow 6.5 fewer points per 100 possessions when Mitchell is on the floor, a product of a much lower eFG% and higher turnover rate. Mitchell's offense has started to catch up to his defense as he's averaging 16.1 points, 4.6 assists and just 1.9 turnovers in 31.3 minutes while shooting 51.3% from 2 and 39.1% from 3 on almost seven attempts per game over his last 10 games. He's making more catch-and-shoot 3s (58 eFG% in January and February), looking at the rim more from 3 when teams go under, showing more nuance around the rim as a finisher, using his burst effectively, and taking care of the ball alongside De'Aaron Fox and new teammate Domantas Sabonis.

          While we compared him to everything from a smaller Holiday to a shorter Donovan Mitchell throughout the pre-draft process, I've always felt that a Lowry-like impact was a relatively realistic outcome. The career trajectories have been incredibly different as Lowry was a two-and-done 24th pick who took well into his NBA career to latch on as a starter, let alone an All-Star. But in terms of the way they drive winning with defensive activity (both charge-taking savants), valuing the ball and being able to fit in multi-guard lineups, there are real similarities between the 6-foot guards. Mitchell would surely be the first to point out that even a young Lowry doesn't have the type of slow-to-fast burst or vertical explosiveness that he possesses, which is absolutely true. But they share a basketball IQ, veteran savvy and understanding of how to win that goes well beyond the box score. Like Lowry, it might not be until Mitchell helps lead a team to the playoffs that the former Baylor star gets real All-Star consideration, but given his stellar on-ball defense and steadily improving offense, he deserves a spot back in the top-10.

          NEXT THREE

          Jalen Green

          Comp: Zach Lavine

          Cam Thomas

          Comp: Ben Gordon

          Ziaire Williams

          Comp: Jaden McDaniels

          Mike Schmitz is an NBA Draft expert and a contributor to DraftExpress.com, a private scouting and analytics service utilized by NBA, NCAA and International teams.