With the NBA's G League Winter Showcase now over and the aftermath of a frenzied transaction period still in progress, the league's power brokers are talking about resetting roster expectations, the progression of G League Ignite in Year 2 and how the rest of the regular season will play out.
Due to the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak and the omicron variant, the league is on pace to exceed the record of players appearing in at least one game of a single season (540, set in 2017-18 and 2020-21) by the end of the calendar year. Sixty-seven players have been called up from the G League along with free-agent signings, but can any of these players make a real impact and stick on rosters for the rest of the season?
So what intelligence and buzz-worthy items have our NBA experts gleaned from Vegas? Here are what scouts, coaches and top executives are discussing post-showcase, future trades and an intriguing prospect aiming for the No. 1 spot in the 2023 NBA draft.
The trade market is frozen
The sense you got talking to executives in Las Vegas is that we have hit an unofficial pause to trade discussions.
"We are in survival mode," one team executive told ESPN. "Right now we are living in a day-to-day world, and my primary focus is making sure that there are at least eight healthy [the required amount] bodies each game."
Instead of having discussions on who could become available in a trade, teams are focusing on the list of players available to sign with hardship exceptions.
One topic that has gotten little attention is how health and safety protocols apply to players who are traded.
If a traded player tests positive for COVID-19, he is not eligible to report to his new team or take a physical.
"How do I explain to my owner that we are trading for a player that has $80 million left on his contract but we can't have him take a physical because he is in isolation?" one team told ESPN. "That would be reckless."
The standard for reporting is 48 hours, and for passing a physical, it's within 72, but teams can agree to push both times to a later date if there are extenuating circumstances.
The league faced the same situation with COVID-19 last season but has never been a situation in which close to 20% of NBA players are in the health and safety protocols. -- Bobby Marks
The Ignite provide a tentpole for NBA executives
For the second straight year, the G League Winter Showcase had a huge audience of NBA decision-makers on hand, thanks in large part to the presence of the six NBA draft prospects on G League Ignite.
Despite COVID-19 concerns, there was barely an empty seat for the Ignite's games against Grand Rapids and Austin. Both contests delivered stark contrasts into the upside of the Ignite pathway, as well as how challenging it can be on a nightly basis for the team's young prospects.
The Ignite won their first game by 17 points by dishing out a season-high 30 assists on 46 made field goals and clamping down on a veteran Grand Rapids squad in the fourth quarter, outscoring them 38-15. Draft prospects Jaden Hardy, Dyson Daniels, MarJon Beauchamp and Fanbo Zeng had some of their best performances of the season, and the team (and its coaching staff) drew rave reviews for the defensive intensity and unselfishness it displayed.
The second night of the back-to-back was a completely different story, as the Ignite (sans Beauchamp, who sat out because of an illness) came out flat versus the Austin Spurs and were drilled by 29 points. The whole team struggled, but it was highly discouraging to see the way its most touted prospect, the 19-year old Hardy (6-for-18 FG, 0 assists, 5 turnovers) in particular repeatedly ran into brick walls, struggled to generate high percentage shots and hoisted up contested jumper after contested jumper while looking off open teammates.
Despite the mixed showing, NBA teams came away mostly enthusiastic about what they saw from the Ignite and how the program is coming along. Having the chance to evaluate prospects against recent NBA draft picks, like 19-year old Josh Primo of the San Antonio Spurs and experienced ex-NBA players such as Lance Stephenson, Nik Stauskas and Mario Chalmers, is invaluable. The fact that the Ignite have been competitive with a 7-7 record, and having won six of their past nine games, is notable, especially because many of its veteran additions, especially in the frontcourt, have struggled.
The Ignite have 10 more games for their prospects to build their candidacy for the draft. An additional yet-to-be-announced showcase game during All-Star Weekend versus the local Cleveland Charge will likely bring another huge audience of high-level NBA decision-makers to town for the Basketball Without Borders global camp as well as the All-Star festivities.
It remains to be seen what the "best" pathway to the NBA is -- realistically that should be determined on a case-by-case basis -- but there is little doubt that the Ignite have a highly compelling offer to make elite prospects willing to forgo the glitz and glam of college basketball, and that their best-performing players should be rewarded on draft night for the sacrifices they made this season. -- Jonathan Givony
Clarity with the roster rules
The NBA got it right, but what took them so long?
That sentiment was the consensus among teams ESPN spoke with while in Las Vegas as it relates to the revised hardship rules concerning the recent outbreak of COVID-19 cases.
While there was an appreciation among teams that the new roster rules give immediate roster relief in case of a COVID-19 outbreak, there was bewilderment that it took more than 70 players being placed in the health and safety protocols before new rules were put into place.
"The league has been proactive since March 2020 in how they have addressed COVID. In this case, I believe they were caught off guard," one team executive told ESPN.
Before the season, the league elected to carry over the same hardship exception rules from the previous season. If a player tested positive for COVID-19, that team could replace him but only if there were already three players who missed three games and were also expected to be out a minimum of two weeks.
The difference, however, from last season to this season is that the NBA and NBPA took a different approach toward vaccinated players. Besides eliminating daily testing, there was a return to normalcy for vaccinated players as it relates to life outside of the practice facility.
Because of that, there was not a question of if a team was going to start losing players -- even if those player are vaccinated -- but a matter of when.
"The league should have seen the warning signs when the Bulls roster began to lose players one by one in early December," one team told ESPN. "Of course, they were right in not pausing the season, but they should have taken a proactive approach with the roster rules either before the start of the season or right after the outbreak with the Bulls."
The revised roster rules that were agreed upon Dec. 19 between the league and players' association now allow a team to sign a replacement player for each positive COVID-19 case. It also mandates a team sign a replacement player if it has two positive COVID-19 cases, two if there are three positives and three for four positives.
While teams have the right to gripe, what should matter is that the league eventually got it right on two important topics.
It provided an insurance policy against the threat of canceled games in the future and removed the financial burden for teams that are either in the luxury tax or on the threshold of entering it.
More than 70 players signed a 10-day hardship roster exception allowing teams to keep their rosters intact. Despite more than 80 players in the health and safety protocols, each team had on average 14 healthy players.
While there was second-guessing on the timing of when the new roster rules came into place, teams applauded the league's stance on giving teams a financial break as it relates to the luxury tax.
Because replacement players' salaries do not count toward the tax penalty, a team such as Toronto -- which was only $270,000 below the threshold -- took an aggressive approach in signing four players to 10-day hardship exceptions. -- Bobby Marks
Execs buzzing about Henderson
Few players left the G League Showcase with more positive momentum than Scoot Henderson, who averaged 13.5 points, 2.5 assists and 1.5 steals in 28.5 minutes over two games at just 17 years old.
At 6-foot-2 with a 6-9 wingspan, incredible burst, elite explosion and a powerful frame, the G League Ignite prospect wowed high-ranking execs with his combination of talent, physical tools and production, looking the part of a future franchise building block at the lead guard spot.
The Ignite having a potential top pick as exciting as Henderson in their program through next season is a huge win for both the G League and the NBA, and should make for compelling drama at No. 1 in the 2023 NBA draft between Henderson and Victor Wembanyama, the 7-2 center out of France. - Mike Schmitz
Jonathan Givony is an NBA Draft expert and the founder and co-owner of DraftExpress.com, a private scouting and analytics service utilized by NBA, NCAA and International teams.
Mike Schmitz is an NBA Draft expert and a contributor to DraftExpress.com, a private scouting and analytics service utilized by NBA, NCAA and International teams.