Patrick Williams suffered a perilunate dislocation of his left wrist during Thursday's 104-103 loss to the New York Knicks, which is expected to sideline the second-year forward for the remainder of the 2021-22 regular season, sources told ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski on Friday.
Williams' injury is a blow to a Chicago team that was off to a 4-0 start before the one-point loss to New York. Williams, the No. 4 overall pick by the Bulls in last year's draft, had started all five games after coming back from an ankle sprain that sidelined him most of training camp and was the Bulls' primary defensive stopper in a starting five otherwise lacking above-average defenders.
Chicago's depth at forward was a concern after the team traded key reserve Thaddeus Young as part of the August sign-and-trade deal to add DeMar DeRozan, and losing Williams only exacerbates the situation. How can the Bulls replace Williams' defensive versatility and how much will his absence impact their pursuit of a return to the playoffs after four years in the lottery? Let's take a look.
Williams' role and replacement
A glance at Williams' per-game stats doesn't suggest Chicago will miss him much. Williams was averaging 6.6 points and 2.2 rebounds per game, down from his marks starting all 71 games as a rookie (9.2 PPG and 4.6 RPG). On a team with three players who averaged at least 20 PPG last season (DeRozan, Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic), Williams was content playing a small role offensively. His 10% usage rate, down from 14% as a rookie, placed him in the bottom 10 among players averaging at least 20 minutes.
To assess Williams' importance to the Bulls, it's better to look at a different usage rate -- that of the players he was guarding. According to Second Spectrum tracking, Williams' half-court defensive matchups have an average usage rate of 24% weighted for the number of head-to-head matchups, far and away the highest for any Chicago player (Lonzo Ball is second at 21%).
To some extent, that's a function of matchups, as the Bulls haven't yet faced a high-scoring perimeter player who might be turned over to Ball. Still, Williams' defensive versatility has allowed Chicago coach Billy Donovan to take the responsibility of defending high scorers off the plates of DeRozan and LaVine.
In all likelihood, that won't change with Williams' injury. The minutes he was playing will probably go primarily to backup guard Javonte Green, another versatile defender who started the three games Williams missed in the preseason, when the Bulls went 4-0.
Replacing Williams with Green might be more of an issue on the offensive end. Although Williams hadn't yet attempted 3-pointers with enough volume (six in 125 minutes so far this season) to keep defenders close, he has shown the ability to knock them down when given enough time. Williams made 39% of his 3-point tries as a rookie. By contrast, Green is a 32% career 3-point shooter. Opponents will be even happier to dare him, more than Williams, to make open 3s.
Late in games, Donovan will likely continue to turn to guard Alex Caruso alongside Chicago's other four starters. Already, the lineup with Caruso in place of Williams had seen the second-most minutes (31, per NBA Advanced Stats) after the Bulls' starting five -- which had played together less than a minute total in the fourth quarter.
Bench depth a concern
Moving Green to the starting five would also mean taking him out of Chicago's bench units. He was already seventh on the Bulls in minutes played behind the starters and Caruso. As is, Donovan has been using forward Alize Johnson (who is on a partially guaranteed contract) and 2021 second-round draft pick Ayo Dosunmu as part of a reserve group, which drops off quickly after Caruso, Green and Troy Brown Jr.
In the short term, Donovan will have to find another frontcourt reserve he trusts. That could be 6-foot-10 center Tony Bradley, who has been a capable reserve in the past and would give Chicago's second unit far more size. Bradley had a useful cameo in the second half of Thursday's game after Green checked in early to replace Williams.
The other option is Derrick Jones Jr., who has gone from starting 43 games for the Portland Trail Blazers last season to a forgotten forward with the Bulls. Jones has played two minutes over the season's first five games. His DNP-CDs have underscored Chicago's decision to acquire Jones and a future first-round pick from the Blazers in the August sign-and-trade deal sending forward Lauri Markkanen to the Cleveland Cavaliers rather than simply keeping forward/center Larry Nance Jr., who went to Portland.
If Jones can't find a foothold in the Bulls' rotation, his $9.7 million salary on an expiring contract could make him an attractive trade candidate. For example, sending Jones and guard Matt Thomas (whose salary is non-guaranteed) to the Houston Rockets for D.J. Augustin and Danuel House Jr. would give Chicago another forward who plays bigger than his size in House without affecting either team's salary-cap situation much. (Augustin has just $333,333 of his 2022-23 salary guaranteed, while the other three players are in the final season of their contracts.)
Williams had two-way contributor potential
At this stage of his career, it's not yet clear Williams is a dramatically better player than Green, so there's no reason for his injury to sink Chicago's pursuit of a playoff spot. Still, the Bulls have lost their clearest path to being a legitimate contender this season, which involved Williams -- one of my five most intriguing players coming into the season -- developing into a two-way contributor.
If Williams could become a dangerous-enough shooter to force opposing defenders to stay home on him, the team's stars would have far more room to operate offensively. And Williams becoming a defensive force was one way to help compensate for the Bulls' shortcomings at the other end of the court.
Losing Williams also puts more pressure on Chicago to stay healthy. The Bulls might have just enough depth to paper over losing a starter, particularly if they can upgrade their bench at the trade deadline. However, there's now less margin for error if additional Chicago players miss an extended period. As a result, Williams' injury certainly complicates things for the Bulls.