What will Dario Saric's injury mean for the Phoenix Suns in the remainder of their NBA Finals matchup with the Milwaukee Bucks -- and beyond?
On Wednesday, the Suns announced that the right knee injury that forced Saric to leave Tuesday night's Game 1 in the first quarter has been diagnosed as an ACL tear. Saric had been a consistent part of Monty Williams' rotation as a backup center since the second round of the playoffs, seeing action in each of Phoenix's past 11 games as the team reached the Finals.
Losing Saric to injury will force Williams to reconfigure his bench for the remainder of the series. And unfortunately, the timing of Saric's injury means the Suns can't count on having him for the 2021-22 season either. Let's look at the implications.
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A forward most of his NBA career, the 6-foot-10 Saric settled in primarily as a center this season after playing that role last year in the bubble, helping juice Phoenix's second-unit offense with his ability to stretch the court and handle the ball on the perimeter.
Saric's emergence was important because the Suns are lacking in quality size behind starting center Deandre Ayton. Frank Kaminsky, who has played both frontcourt positions this season, saw only limited minutes against the Denver Nuggets and none at all in the Western Conference finals against the LA Clippers. With Saric sidelined, the only other player taller than 6-foot-8 on Phoenix's roster besides Ayton and Kaminsky is rookie Jalen Smith, who played just 156 minutes during the regular season.
After Saric left Game 1, Williams experimented with a couple of different options for resting Ayton. In the second quarter, he turned to Kaminsky for a brief, unmemorable stint during which Kaminsky recorded no box-score stats and the teams played to a draw. In the fourth quarter, the Suns played no traditional big man when Ayton rested, going with a frontcourt of combo forwards Jae Crowder and Cameron Johnson.
To some extent, Williams' decision might be determined by how Milwaukee coach Mike Budenholzer adjusts his rotation. Part of the reason Williams was able to go small in the fourth quarter of Game 1 was that the Bucks did, too, taking centers Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis off the court in favor of a switchable unit with Giannis Antetokounmpo as the biggest player.
Depending how committed Budenholzer is to going small and switching, the time when Ayton is on the bench may be ideal for Milwaukee to steal minutes for Lopez and Portis without Ayton around to pose a threat rolling to the rim against traditional pick-and-roll coverages. It's also an opportunity for Lopez and Portis to use their size to create problems on offense, much as they did against the Atlanta Hawks in the Eastern Conference finals with Giannis sidelined.
At the same time, the minutes when both teams were small favored the Bucks in Game 1, as they were plus-4 while Ayton rested almost exactly three minutes. So Milwaukee might not want to give Williams any reason to change things just yet.
Looking ahead to 2021-22 and beyond
Given Ayton's ability to extend his minutes the remainder of this series -- he played nearly 39 in Game 1 and topped the 40-minute mark twice in the conference finals -- the bigger impact of Saric's absence might actually be felt during the 2021-22 season.
At this point, an ACL tear should typically be considered a full-year injury. The last NBA player to return sooner than 11 months after suffering an ACL tear was J.J. Hickson in November 2014. Because of this year's belated schedule, that timeline would mean Saric returning no earlier than next year's NBA Finals, should Phoenix get there again. Realistically, the Suns shouldn't expect to have Saric at all next season.
With Kaminsky hitting free agency, Smith is the only player besides Ayton capable of playing center currently under contract for the Suns for 2021-22. Saric's injury puts far more pressure on the team to develop its 2020 lottery pick more quickly. Smith should benefit from the opportunity to play in the NBA Summer League in Las Vegas and have a full training camp to get up to speed, but his selection with the No. 10 overall pick was considered a surprise given where he was projected in the draft.
Presumably, Phoenix should be able to re-sign Kaminsky without much trouble after claiming him off waivers at the end of training camp last December. The Suns might also want to add another big man for insurance, ideally another lob threat to contrast with Kaminsky and Smith, both of whom are stretch bigs.
It's possible that Saric ultimately returns from his ACL tear with a different team. By 2022-23, extensions for Ayton and starting small forward Mikal Bridges should be kicking in, giving them huge raises over their current rookie contracts. If Phoenix can retain Chris Paul, who has a player option for 2021-22 and could re-sign on a longer deal or extend his current contract, the luxury tax will become a huge issue for the Suns.
Although Saric is under contract for a reasonable $9.2 million in 2022-23, moving his salary to a different team would give the Suns more flexibility if Smith proves capable of backing up Ayton next season.