As the Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns tipped off the NBA Finals on Tuesday night, the other 28 teams watched from home. After a playoffs defined by injuries, an unusually large number of those teams could believe that -- if not for a key absence -- they might have been playing instead.
That does nothing to cheapen the accomplishments of the Bucks and Suns, who have overcome key losses themselves: Milwaukee reached the Finals without two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, who missed the final two games of their Eastern Conference finals win over the Atlanta Hawks, while Phoenix got off to a 2-0 lead in the Western Conference finals despite Chris Paul being in the NBA's health and safety protocols.
Still, as the rest of the league looks ahead to the offseason, the results of the playoffs set up a fascinating dynamic. Instead of trying to get better to deal with the Bucks and Suns, many of the league's top contenders may simply be hoping to get back to the point where they were favored to win the title at full strength.
A historic number of injuries during the playoffs
During the second round of the postseason, I took a preliminary look at how this year's injuries compared to past years. Since then, the total number of games missed by players who averaged 25 MPG in the playoffs (or during the regular season if they missed the entire playoffs) has climbed to 87, the second-highest total of the past four-plus decades, behind last year.
In contrast to the 2020 playoffs, played in the late summer and early fall as part of the NBA's restart after pausing due to the COVID-19 pandemic, more of this year's absences have occurred during the playoffs. In 2020, a record 12 high-minutes players missed their team's entire playoff run because of injuries suffered beforehand. This year, that number is just six.
However, an incredible 13 high-minutes players -- including Paul -- have missed at least one game because of an injury or illness suffered during the playoffs, combining to miss 44 games and counting.
Both of those marks are the highest in my data set, which goes back to 1978.
It's evident from that list that injuries to key players sustained during the playoffs are on the rise. Before 2012, none of the postseasons for which I have data reached 20 games missed by high-minutes players due to injuries or illness during the playoffs. Since then, eight of the past 10 years have surpassed that threshold.
More teams are left wondering, 'What if?'
Naturally, increasing injuries during the playoffs mean a greater number of affected teams. Since 1978, the first year for which my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric can be calculated, thanks to the tracking of individual turnovers, 10 teams have seen players who averaged at least 25 MPG combine to miss enough time that they would have been expected to add at least one extra win based on their performance in other playoff games. All 10 of those have occurred in the past decade, including two this season.
Because this measure combines games missed and quality of production when healthy, it's determined to a large extent by how well the team continues to play without a key contributor. Hence, the Cavaliers come out on top for their 2015 run to the NBA Finals despite losing Kevin Love to a shoulder injury in the first round and Kyrie Irving to a knee injury during the Finals, much like the Warriors managed to reach the Finals without the injured Kevin Durant in 2019.
This year's Clippers accomplished something similar, closing out the Utah Jazz without injured star Kawhi Leonard before taking the Suns to six games in the conference finals. As a result, they come in third on the list. The Brooklyn Nets stand a bit lower because they couldn't quite get past the Bucks with Irving sidelined. Of course, this doesn't account for James Harden being limited in the final three games of that series after returning ahead of schedule from a hamstring strain.
Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Lakers don't make the list because Anthony Davis technically missed only one game because of injury against Phoenix in the opening round. In reality, Davis was sidelined the second half of Game 4 and all but the first five minutes of Game 6, when he attempted to come back but proved too badly hampered to continue. There's also no credit for LeBron James coming back from an injury of his own that helped push the Lakers into the play-in tournament in the West, setting up a challenging first-round matchup against the Suns.
Until Irving's injury, the Lakers and Nets had been the only two teams with the best championship odds over the course of the season at Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill. Per ESPN Stats & Information research, the Lakers were the title favorites until shortly after LeBron's injury in March, when Brooklyn claimed that spot right up through Game 4 against Milwaukee. Although the Clippers were never the title favorites, they entered the playoffs with the second-best odds to win the West behind the Lakers.
The injuries all three teams suffered prevented us from finding out whether those high outside expectations were accurate.
Projecting forward to the 2022 playoffs
There's good news for the Clippers and Nets as we project forward to next season. Of the eight other teams to lose more than one win above replacement to injuries suffered in the playoffs, three went on to win the title the following year:
The 2012-13 Heat (who had won the title in 2012 despite an injury that sidelined Chris Bosh much of the run)
The 2015-16 Cavaliers
The 2016-17 Warriors
The 2013-14 Thunder are a fourth team that did better in the postseason the following year, as they reached the conference finals before losing to the eventual champion San Antonio Spurs.
Notably, it doesn't appear that any of the injuries this year's contenders suffered should linger into the 2021-22 campaign. Such long-term injuries hampered the efforts of the 2019-20 Warriors (who were without Klay Thompson before additional injuries to Stephen Curry and Draymond Green; plus the loss of Durant to free agency helped push them into the lottery), the 2012-13 Bulls (without Derrick Rose after his ACL tear) and 2017-18 Spurs (who saw Leonard miss 73 games because of patellar tendinopathy).
The Clippers, Lakers and Nets will face key questions this offseason. The Clippers must potentially re-sign Leonard, who can become an unrestricted free agent if he declines a player option. For the Lakers, starting point guard Dennis Schroder is an unrestricted free agent, and the center position is in flux with Montrezl Harrell holding a player option and Andre Drummond an unrestricted free agent.
Similarly, buyout pickup Blake Griffin will be an unrestricted free agent for Brooklyn. So too will Spencer Dinwiddie, a starter at the beginning of the season who was sidelined after suffering an ACL injury in the third game and will decline his player option.
Still, in contrast to most teams at home for the Finals, the Clippers, Lakers and Nets can feel good about their chances of getting here next season with a similar formula -- so long as it includes better health in 2022.