How does the big Anthony Davis trade look a season later?
As the Los Angeles Lakers get closer to a championship, there's no doubt the Davis trade is a key reason. Aside from a subpar Game 3 on Sunday, he has been outstanding in his first playoff run, providing LeBron James the kind of superstar support necessary to win a title.
At the same time, the New Orleans Pelicans can feel good about their end of the trade after Brandon Ingram broke through in the Big Easy, making his first All-Star appearance and winning Most Improved Player.
With the Pelicans still poised to benefit from an influx of draft picks from the Davis trade, let's look at how the deal set up both teams this season -- and beyond.
Davis trade already a win for Lakers
If the Lakers can get the two more wins needed for their first title since 2010, the Davis trade will be unequivocally a win for them -- no matter what happens going forward.
The Davis trade is working out as well as the Lakers could have hoped (and certainly better than I feared), but that isn't just about the quality of his play. We knew Davis was this great and that he just needed the right talent around him to thrive in the postseason. What's different this year for Davis and the Lakers is that everything else has also gone to plan.
First, the Lakers managed to avoid decimating their depth while sending three rotation players to New Orleans in return. That required some strong value shopping in free agency -- most notably re-signing restricted free agent Alex Caruso -- and some good fortune. Remember, the Lakers' vision of this team had DeMarcus Cousins sharing center minutes with JaVale McGee, something we never got to see after Cousins suffered an ACL tear while training last summer. When Cousins went down, the Lakers pivoted to Plan B: bringing back Dwight Howard, who has provided key minutes during the postseason.
Additionally, the Lakers didn't suffer from the restriction against trading their 2020 first-round pick at the deadline after giving up multiple first-round picks, including their 2021 first-round pick, in the Davis trade. The Clippers landed Marcus Morris by using their first-round pick in a deal with the New York Knicks, but the Clippers were waylaid by the Denver Nuggets before they could face the Lakers. After a flirtation with Darren Collison, who attended the Lakers' loss to the Houston Rockets the night of the deadline, they settled for Marcus' twin brother, Markieff Morris, after a buyout and have gotten strong minutes from him in the playoffs.
Second, and equally important, LeBron proved capable of providing prime-level play at age 35, something that wasn't a foregone conclusion after his injury-marred first season with the Lakers. LeBron's age and injury concerns made it imperative that the team take advantage rather than waiting to potentially sign Davis as a free agent during the 2021 offseason -- a possibility that would have allowed them to retain a good portion of the young talent and draft picks that went to the Pelicans.
The Lakers' instant success not only looks likely to translate to a championship banner, it likely also takes off the table the long-shot worst-case scenario for a Davis trade: him deciding to flee this offseason as a free agent, much like Howard did after his first stint with the Lakers. Depending on where the 2020-21 salary cap is set, it might not make sense for Davis to sign a long-term deal this offseason, but it seems he's surely in L.A. to stay.
Despite having four others with player options, the Lakers are well-positioned to keep this core intact. They can use full Bird rights to re-sign Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who has emerged as a starter in the postseason, and would have the ability to offer Avery Bradley up to $5.7 million if they want to add him back to the mix after he opted out of the restart. Howard, who played this season for the veteran's minimum, is a slightly trickier proposition, but the Lakers could dip into their taxpayer midlevel exception to re-sign him.
Looking ahead, the Lakers still might face a pivot point in the 2021 offseason, a year from now. So far, they have only James (who holds a player option) under contract for 2021-22. While salaries for LeBron and AD are expected to swallow up the vast majority of the Lakers' cap space, it's possible they might look at that summer as an opportunity to move on from older supporting players like starting wing Danny Green, who will be 34.
Managing long term will still be important for the Lakers, who owe New Orleans their first-round picks in 2021 (top-seven protected) and 2024 (the Pelicans can choose to defer the pick to 2025, and the pick is unprotected), as well as a potential (unprotected) pick swap in 2023. Those limitations will make it more difficult for the Lakers to replenish their roster as it ages. This was already the league's oldest team during the regular season, weighted by minutes played.
Of course, whatever those picks eventually yield, the Lakers would surely give them up again to put themselves in position to win the title now and be favored against next season.
Pelicans poised for leap
New Orleans undoubtedly has no regrets about the Davis trade either. The Pelicans were able to extract just about everything possible from the Lakers, setting themselves up as one of the league's most promising young teams.
Ingram's development was most crucial for the Pelicans, giving them a young perimeter star to go with No. 1 overall pick Zion Williamson on the interior. By dramatically improving his shooting, Ingram became a far more efficient scorer at an even higher volume than he carried in L.A. He more than quadrupled his 3-pointers made per 36 minutes while going from 33% accuracy with the Lakers to 39% in New Orleans, as well as hitting a career-best 85% of his free throws after never previously topping 70%.
Though Lonzo Ball had a disappointing restart in the bubble as the Pelicans fell short of an expected run to the play-in matchup, his season-long improvement as a shooter (from 31.5% on 3s in L.A. to 37.5%, and above 50% from the free throw line for the first time) gives him a clearer outlook as a quality role player. And Josh Hart played starter-level minutes off the bench for New Orleans while making a bargain $1.9 million.
Ball, Hart and Ingram will soon get more expensive. Ingram is a restricted free agent this offseason who's likely to command a max offer sheet if the Pelicans don't take care of him first. Ball and Hart are both extension-eligible, though the two sides might decide to wait until the 2021 offseason to clarify their value on the restricted market.
Despite those coming raises, New Orleans is in great position cap-wise if Jrue Holiday heads elsewhere during the 2021 offseason, when he can become an unrestricted free agent. The Pelicans could max out Ingram, pay Ball $15 million a year and still have more than $20 million in cap space to add to their young core.
New Orleans also parlayed the 2019 No. 4 overall pick from the Lakers into a pair of 2019 first-rounders, taking Jaxson Hayes No. 8 and Nickeil Alexander-Walker No. 17. As those players grow into larger roles, the Pelicans will keep getting additional picks from L.A. thanks to the Davis trade, allowing them either a steady supply of cost-controlled young talent or valuable trade chips.
The Pelicans still must hope Williamson can stay healthy and develop after he missed the first 44 games of his career due to injury, and they must determine the right coach to lead this group to the playoffs. And a decision about a possible Holiday trade looms if it becomes clear he doesn't intend to re-sign.
The Davis trade allowed the Pelicans to reset. Going forward, it provides New Orleans good options and alternatives for what should be a bright future.