The Los Angeles Lakers beat the Houston Rockets 117-109 on Sunday in Game 2 to even the Western Conference semifinals 1-1. But have they solved their P.J. Tucker problem?
Particularly in the wake of Houston's easy victory in Game 1 of this series, there has been plenty of discussion about the challenges the Rockets present for the West's top seed. I think it's more accurate to say that Tucker presents those issues. His unique ability to defend Anthony Davis one-on-one while giving up 5 inches of height enables the Rockets to get away with a small lineup that causes the Lakers problems at the other end of the court.
From that standpoint, the most important thing that happened Sunday was Tucker's picking up two fouls in the game's first seven minutes and a third midway through the second quarter. With Tucker on the bench, the Rockets were outscored by 20 points in nearly 12 first-half minutes, enabling the Lakers to build a lead that helped them survive Houston's hot third quarter.
How have the Lakers adjusted to Tucker and the Rockets, and how might that play out in the series? Let's break it down.
Tucker's importance vs. the Lakers
Certainly, Tucker's ability to defend centers at 6-foot-5 is always crucial for Houston, which moved him to the position full-time after the February trade sending out incumbent starter Clint Capela for versatile forward Robert Covington. Tucker's role takes on paramount importance against the Lakers because of the challenge of defending Davis.
In the three games the Rockets have played against the full-strength Lakers since the trade, Houston is plus-44 in Tucker's 101 minutes of action. In the 43 minutes Tucker has spent on the bench in those games, the Rockets have been outscored by 27 points.
Admittedly, the magnitude of that differential is exacerbated by small-sample randomness in terms of 3-point shooting. Tucker was on the court for the duration of the third quarter of Game 2, when Houston made nine 3s in 13 attempts, and the Lakers went 8-of-10 from 3-point range when Tucker was on the bench.
However, it also reflects Tucker's defense of Davis. According to Second Spectrum tracking, Davis has scored 25 points in 57 possessions (43.9 points per 100 possessions) on which another Rockets player was his primary matchup, compared to 21 points in 68 possessions against Tucker (30.8 per 100 possessions).
Lakers' adjusting to Rockets' lineup
Typically, we think of how other teams must adjust to deal with the Lakers' superstar duo of Davis and LeBron James. So far in this matchup, it's instead the Lakers who are having to change what they do because of Houston's small lineups.
In Game 2, that meant a DNP-CD for Lakers backup center Dwight Howard, his first one of the season. Starting center JaVale McGee played just eight minutes before exiting because of pain in his left ankle. (It's doubtful that McGee, who played 6 minutes, 28 seconds in the first half, would have stayed on the court much longer anyway.)
The net product of those changes was Davis playing 28 of his 36 minutes at center. In terms of possessions, as tracked by Second Spectrum, the 80% of the time Davis spent at center in Game 2 was his second-highest rate this season, trailing only his mark in the Aug. 6 matchup between these teams in the seeding games, when Lakers coach Frank Vogel opted to start Kyle Kuzma in place of McGee.
It's clear from the adjustment that the Lakers don't think the formula that worked for them throughout the regular season is effective against the Rockets and Tucker. In Game 2, when the Lakers were outscored by eight with McGee on the court, that proved largely correct.
Playing small puts pressure on Lakers' perimeter reserves
Given that the Lakers' centers were two of their more reliable players this season, taking them largely out of the rotation forces Vogel to go deeper into his bench. That reinforces how much the Lakers could use Avery Bradley in this series. Bradley, who started 44 of the 49 games he played before opting against participating in the restart for family reasons, would give Vogel another reliable option on the perimeter. Fortunately, the players Vogel called on delivered Sunday.
Markieff Morris, whose 23 minutes were the most he has played since he signed with the Lakers in February, knocked down four 3-pointers and netted his high-scoring total in a Lakers uniform, with 16 points.
Rajon Rondo provided vintage "Playoff Rondo" in his second game back from the thumb injury that sidelined him through the first round of the playoffs, putting up 10 points, 9 assists and 5 steals in 29 minutes in Game 2. The Lakers were plus-28 in Rondo's minutes, which largely overlapped with Tucker's time on the bench.
If Rondo can keep it up, the Lakers might be covered. Vogel can lean more heavily on Kuzma (who played just 21 minutes on Sunday, despite scoring 13 points on seven shot attempts) if and when Morris comes back to earth as a shooter. McGee's injury might open the door for Vogel to change his starting lineup to go small from the opening tip in Game 3. That would be preferable because even if the Lakers want to get minutes for Howard or McGee, that's easier to do against Houston's second unit.
Houston backup center Jeff Green presents a less challenging matchup for players unaccustomed to defending on the perimeter, particularly if James Harden isn't in the game to run the inverted pick-and-rolls that the Rockets used frequently against the Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round, with Green the ball handler and Harden setting the screen.
Despite their successful adjustments, the Lakers haven't yet proven that they can control the game with Tucker on the court. Assuming that Tucker avoids foul trouble, we'll get a better idea of whether they can on Tuesday.