The Denver Nuggets rallied to oust the Utah Jazz and LA Clippers in dramatic comebacks before falling in the Western Conference finals to the Los Angeles Lakers.
Now to further their NBA championship ambitions, they return to building a roster that remains a work in progress. They do have a franchise player in Nikola Jokic and a future All-Star in Jamal Murray, and the seeding games and playoffs demonstrated the potential of redshirt rookie Michael Porter Jr.
Four of their more important players on the defensive end are free agents: Jerami Grant, Mason Plumlee, Torrey Craig and Paul Millsap. How many can Denver retain?
Let's examine what else the Nuggets can do in the draft, free agency and trade season to move from pretender to contender.
Note: The financials in here are based on the salary cap and luxury tax holding at the 2019-20 levels, as expected. Dates are subject to adjustment.
MORE: Biggest trade, free agency and draft decisions for every eliminated NBA team
How to prioritize their own free agents
Among Grant, Plumlee, Craig and Millsap, we should expect an odd man (or two) out when it comes to Denver's free-agent decisions. That's no certainty, because all four have established Early Bird or Bird rights, allowing the Nuggets to exceed the $109.1 million salary cap to sign them.
However, because the Nuggets have $95 million in guaranteed salary for Jokic, Murray, Harris, Barton and Porter, Denver will need to balance its cap ledger to avoid the $132.7 million luxury tax. The last time the Nuggets paid the tax was during the 2009-10 season.
One way to look at the finances is that Denver has a $29 million budget to split among some or all of the four players. If Jerami Grant opts into his $9.3 million contract, that number shrinks to $20 million.
Of the four, Grant is the priority to bring back. In addition to his talent, the 26-year-old forward has three attributes teams crave: versatility, durability and the willingness to accept a role.
Known primarily as a power forward, he can slide down to small forward, and on the defensive end, he has the rare ability to guard all five positions. Since the 2015-16 season, Grant has missed only nine games to injury.
At the very minimum, the market should see the forward's salary start at the $9.3 million midlevel exception (his current salary). Because Grant is still in his prime, he can gamble and sign a one-year contract (with Denver or another team) and enter free agency in the summer of 2021, when the market should open up with more teams that have cap flexibility.
Signing Grant would make Millsap expendable unless he is willing to take a reduced role as a bench player at a salary of $4-6 million. But for contending teams, Millsap is a good candidate for the $9.3 million midlevel exception or a portion of it -- so elsewhere is where we might see the 35-year-old next season.
Plumlee has anchored the second unit as a reliable backup to Jokic. His price range going forward should be $4-6 million. As for Craig, where does he find minutes when Barton and Harris are healthy?
One thing to keep in mind is that even allowing all four players to leave would not give the Nuggets cap flexibility. While they would not be in danger of the luxury tax, Denver would be right at the cap and have only the $9.3 million midlevel and $3.6 million biannual exceptions available. So expect Denver to try to work out a deal with at least two or three of them.
There is also the question of how much the Nuggets trust Porter in an expanded role. He played at an All-Star level during the seeding games, then struggled at times in the playoffs, primarily on the defensive end. He's an elite scorer, but needs to improve his defense to justify a major role. If the Nuggets have doubts, they'll need Grant and/or Millsap to stay.
Offseason cap breakdown
Including the Grant player option, Denver has $113 million in salary, $4 million over the projected $109 million salary cap.
Expect the Nuggets to act as a team over the salary cap even if Grant leaves and they do not sign their other free agents. Staying over would allow them to use the $9.3 million midlevel and $3.6 million biannual exceptions.
Depth chart
The resources available to build the roster
The draft: first-round pick from Houston
$5.6 million to send and/or receive in a trade
Own free agents: Grant, Millsap, Craig and Plumlee
Exceptions: $9.3 million midlevel and $3.6 million biannual
Dates to watch
The rookie max extension of Jamal Murray will be impacted by how the NBA sets the 2020-21 salary cap. The current $167 million projection for his total salary is based on a $115 million salary cap. However, if the cap stays at $109.1 million, the contract will be for $158 million.
Backup point guard Monte Morris has a $1.7 million non-guaranteed contract. The contract becomes guaranteed on the first day of free agency. Morris is not in danger of being waived, and the Nuggets will likely explore extension options with him. (More on that below.)
The $1.66 million Keita Bates-Diop contract becomes guaranteed five days after free agency begins. The former second-round pick was acquired at the trade deadline and appeared in seven regular-season games, averaging 5.2 points. Bates-Diop is expected to be on the roster past his guaranteed date.
PJ Dozier signed a three-year, $3.85 million contract during the transaction window in June. The $1.76 million contract has $1.2 million in guaranteed money. The unprotected amount becomes guaranteed at the cut-down date in 2021 (likely three months after the season starts).
Prior to the first day of free agency, the Nuggets will extend a one-year, $2.5 million qualifying offer to Torrey Craig, making him a restricted free agent, with Denver having the ability to match an offer sheet.
Restrictions
Jerami Grant cannot be traded until he opts into his contract.
Until their contracts are guaranteed, Morris' and Bates-Diop's salaries count as $0 outgoing in a trade.
The poison pill restriction for Jamal Murray will be lifted on the first day of free agency. Because Murray signed a rookie extension last year, the average salary of 2019-20 and the new extension is used for incoming salary. For example, Murray would count as $28.5 million as incoming salary for a team acquiring him and $4.4 million as outgoing salary.
Extension candidates
Extending backup point guard Monte Morris should be on the to-do list for the Nuggets. Morris will become an unrestricted free agent in 2021 without a new deal because a quirk in the CBA credits Morris with a year of service from when he signed a two-way contract in 2017.
Morris in his two years as the primary backup to Jamal Murray has not missed a game to injury and has been a consistent contributor, averaging 22 minutes, 9 points and 3.5 assists. Once his 2020-21 contract becomes guaranteed, the Nuggets can extend him for as much as an additional four seasons and $51 million. A realistic contract for the former second-round pick should be similar to the three-year, $27 million deal that backup D.J. Augustin signed with Orlando in 2017.
When I began this analysis, I included a section above for a Will Barton contract extension based on his strong season: 15 points per game, 6.3 rebounds and a career-best 37.5% shooting from 3-point range. But because of a knee injury that knocked him out of the restart and playoffs, the Nuggets now need to be cautious. Barton is extension-eligible until the day before the regular season begins for an additional three years and up to $57 million in new money.
Harris, Bates-Diop and Grant (if he opts in) are also extension-eligible. Since signing a four-year, $74 million extension in 2017, Harris has missed 46 games because of injury.
The draft assets
The Nuggets' 2020 first that was traded to acquire Grant from Oklahoma City was replaced at the trade deadline -- as part of the trade that sent Malik Beasley and Juancho Hernangomez to Minnesota, Denver has the Rockets' first in October.
Here is how Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have the Nuggets selecting in the draft:
• No. 22 (via HOU) Aleksej Pokusevski | Olympiakos B | F
• No. 45 (own) Skylar Mays | LSU | PG/SG
The Nuggets have their own firsts for all future years.