What can the Chicago Bulls do to get back to the playoffs after hiring Billy Donovan as head coach?
With a new coach in house, the Bulls have some big decisions to make at the NBA draft and in terms of how to approach free agency and trade season.
The Bulls will have the fourth pick in the draft and return three of their own lottery picks -- Coby White, Wendell Carter Jr. and Lauri Markkanen -- plus star Zach LaVine and a complement of veterans.
Let's look ahead to what they should do this offseason to start winning again.
Note: The financials here are based on the salary cap and luxury tax holding at the 2019-20 levels, as expected.
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The big picture
Bulls executive vice president Arturas Karnisovas and his new front office will continue to spend the next few months analyzing these questions:
Are they a playoff team this coming season?
Is the lack of success roster-driven or due to injuries?
How do they approach the restricted free agency of Kris Dunn?
What should they do about LaVine and Markkanen?
The Bulls have used 42 different lineups over the past two seasons and have seen Dunn, Carter, Markkanen, Otto Porter Jr. and Chandler Hutchison miss extended time due to injuries.
Dunn was having an All-Defensive type of season before he injured his knee in late January. Among point guards, Dunn was ranked second in ESPN's defensive real plus-minus, fourth in deflections per game (first overall per 36 minutes) and fifth in loose balls recovered (per 36 minutes).
Dunn has a $7.1 million qualifying offer that the Bulls will likely extend, making him a restricted free agent this offseason.
The Zach LaVine extension
It was only two years ago that LaVine signed a four-year, $78 million offer sheet with the Sacramento Kings -- a contract the Bulls matched.
In those two seasons, LaVine has averaged 23.7 and 25.5 points per game, respectively, making his $19.5 million-per-year salary one of the league's best bargains. However, in those two seasons, the Bulls' 44-103 record has somewhat overshadowed the play of LaVine, which was evident in his getting bypassed as an All-Star Game selection in February.
"I've never won anything," LaVine told ESPN earlier this season. "Sometimes you get drafted to a really good team where you're already in the playoffs and you're a winning player, but I haven't experienced anything like that. I'm still trying to learn this like everybody else because it hasn't come easy for us."
Since he was drafted by the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2014, LaVine has never reached the postseason. His most wins (29) came in his second season with the Timberwolves.
The playoff futility is a reason why LaVine is often compared to Phoenix Suns star Devin Booker, an elite scorer who has not played in meaningful games past the All-Star break (though the Suns are trying to change that with an impressive run inside the bubble).
LaVine is set to enter Year 3 of his contract with his third different head coach.
The Bulls can extend him (as soon as the start of free agency) for an additional three seasons starting in 2022-23, at a total salary of $76 million ($23.4, $25.3 and $27.1 million per year, respectively). The deadline for a new contract is the eve of the start date of the 2020-21 season.
The decision for LaVine could come down to multiple factors:
Does LaVine have faith in the new management group led by Karnisovas? What is the blueprint on how this team can compete for a playoff spot?
Besides $76 million in guaranteed money, what exactly are the pros of signing an extension?
LaVine would become an unrestricted free agent in 2022, when he will be in the prime of his career at age 27. A new contract could put him in a Bulls uniform through 2024-25 on a team-friendly salary.
If there is no extension, LaVine would enter the 2021-22 season on an expiring contract and be one of the most sought-after names prior to the 2022 trade deadline.
The future of Lauri Markkanen
Markkanen accomplished a milestone even before the 2019-20 season began: cracking the top 50 of ESPN's NBArank countdown -- ahead of Boston Celtics wing Jaylen Brown and LaVine. Markkanen also tied for 13th in ESPN's top 25 players under 25 rankings.
The accolades were based on a 130-game body of work over his first two seasons, including a 10-game stretch in February 2019 during which he averaged 26.0 points and 12.2 rebounds on 48.6% shooting.
But the 2019-20 season is one that Markkanen would like to forget.
He shot a career-worst 33.1% in November while averaging 12.0 points. There were nagging injuries, an oblique issue in the early part of the season and a sprained ankle in early January. He later missed 15 games with a stress reaction in his right pelvis. He returned for four games in March before the season was suspended.
Markkanen's role in the Bulls' offense also changed: 54% of his shots were from beyond 20 feet, a jump from 44% in 2018-19.
He also found himself off ESPN's latest 25-under-25 list in March, not registering a single top-25 vote.
With Markkanen entering the final year of his contract and extension eligible, how does a new front office evaluate his future?
"He's eager to get back to the gym and improve. He was disappointed by the overall result [of 2019-20]," Karnisovas said. "Our objective is to get the best version of Lauri next year."
There are two approaches Chicago can take with Markkanen leading up to the extension deadline of Nov. 30:
Offer him a contract comparable to the four-year, $75 million and $72 million extensions Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner signed with the Indiana Pacers the previous two Octobers. An extension starting at $18 million in the first year would fall $2 million below Markkanen's $20.4 million free-agent hold in 2021.
Use the 2020-21 season as an evaluation and wait until he becomes a restricted free agent in 2021.
Including his free-agent hold, Chicago projects to have a minimum of $30 million in cap space in 2021. The flexibility could increase because of the partially guaranteed contracts of Thaddeus Young and Tomas Satoransky.
Offseason cap breakdown
The $16 million Dunn and $5.1 million first-round holds have the Bulls over the cap despite $106 million in salary. If Dunn is not brought back, Chicago is still over the cap when you factor in the first-round hold along with the $9.3 million midlevel and $3.6 million biannual exception.
With Porter's contract expiring after the 2020-21 season, Chicago projects to have close to $50 million in cap space for the summer of 2021.
Resources available to build the roster
Two picks in the draft: No. 4 and second round
The young players: White, Markkanen and Carter
Tradable veterans: Young and Satoransky
Potential All-Star in LaVine
$9.3 million midlevel and $3.6 million biannual exception
$5.6 million to send out and receive in a trade
Dates to watch
The Bulls have until the day prior to free agency to decide on one-year qualifying offers for Dunn ($17.1 million), Denzel Valentine ($4.7 million) and Shaquille Harrison ($2.0 million).
Valentine's four-year career has been inconsistent and marred by injuries. The forward has missed 98 games, including all of 2018-19 with a left ankle injury. His best stretch occurred after March 2 when he averaged 13 points in 22 minutes.
After playing on consecutive one-year non-guaranteed contracts, Harrison has a defensive rating of 98.9 in 16.7 minutes played. That ranks fourth among all players who have played more than 15 minutes per game this season.
Had he stayed healthy this season, there would have been a debate on whether Porter should enter free agency and not opt in to his $28.5 million contract. However, teams that have cap space would need to see more of a body of work that shows Porter is fully healthy. The forward has missed 62 games (51 this season with a foot injury) since Chicago acquired him in 2019.
Restrictions
Porter (player option), Dunn, Valentine and Harrison are free agents and cannot be traded. Porter becomes trade eligible once he opts in to his contract for 2020-21.
Extension candidates
Besides LaVine and Markkanen, Porter and Cristiano Felicio are also extension eligible.
The draft assets
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Chicago selecting:
No. 4 (own): Obi Toppin | PF | Dayton
No. 44 (via MEM): Jordan Nwora | SF/PF | Louisville
The Bulls own all of their future first-round picks.