What does Jalen Green's decision to join the G League's new professional path venture mean for the NBA and the future of the NBA draft?
Green, the potential No. 1 pick in the 2021 NBA draft, announced on Thursday that he is bypassing college basketball in a move with massive ramifications. The G League is in the process of recruiting more draft prospects and veteran players to join Green in a one-year development program that will exist outside of the minor league's traditional team structure.
ESPN's NBA experts Jonathan Givony, Mike Schmitz and Bobby Marks answer the big questions about the decision and its impact.
LISTEN: The Woj Pod on Jalen Green's big move
Who are the winners and losers here?
The G League is a clear winner, going from being shunned by draft prospects last year to securing the potential No. 1 pick in 2021. The team Green is joining is expected to play at least 10 to 12 exhibition games against G League teams while taking part in events such as the G League Showcase, sources say, which will provide the league with significant exposure.
Future draft prospects will benefit as well, with more well-paying professional options and competition for their services. Players taking the G League path will be able to hire agents to help them navigate their professional careers, negotiate endorsement deals and get ready for the NBA. One source involved in the negotiations told me, "This can't fail from our perspective."
The NBA also gave its international academies a boost, as they will take part in practices, scrimmages and exhibitions against this team of one-and-done prospects, which should not only provide exposure to their players but also valuable experience and development.
College basketball and Australia's National Basketball League could end up as losers. Green won't be playing college hoops, with more future stars potentially following him. And after a successful season featuring two projected lottery picks, RJ Hampton and LaMelo Ball, the NBL's Next Stars now has competition from the G League, while dealing with international travel restrictions and complications from the coronavirus pandemic when trying to recruit players. -- Givony
What's different about this initiative compared to the one the G League tried in 2018?
Money is the big one. G League president Shareef Abdur-Rahim was hired two months after the G League announced the professional pathway in 2018, and he quickly found out that the $125,000 the league had committed to pay blue-chip prospects wasn't enough to recruit them.
Control is the other notable change. Draft prospects had significant concerns about the inability to influence their G League destinations under the old system. The idea of being sent to any location and asked to play for coaches or alongside teammates who might not prioritize their development wasn't appealing. While they don't know exactly where this new venture will be based, sources say the players have been assured they won't be in the least attractive markets in the G League.
One more important thing to note: Recent conversations with NCAA coaches, players and their advisers reveal a level of concern regarding what next season's college basketball schedule might look like if the coronavirus pandemic lingers. College basketball programs normally spend much of the summer practicing and having students acclimate to campus life, particularly on the academic side, something that will be extremely challenging now. When players can live together in dorms and play games in front of fans remains very much in flux.
Those issues will still exist in some form for the G League, but prospects might look to this smaller, more contained development environment as an alternative. -- Givony
What's the scouting reporting on Jalen Green?
The 6-foot-5 guard holds as much long-term upside as any prospect in the 2021 draft class and deserves heavy consideration for the first overall pick. The 18-year-old is an effortless athlete who glides up and down the court in transition, shifts gears on a dime and plays above the rim, exploding off one or two feet with ease, showing some similarities to Bulls guard Zach LaVine in that regard.
The main intrigue involves Green's scoring instincts and ability to get buckets both in the open court and at all three levels, thanks to his explosive ability and greatly improved shot-making. A career 31.6% 3-point shooter on 269 attempts, according to our database, Green is still on the streaky side, but he can get going in a hurry, even creating space with step-backs. From there, he's aggressive getting downhill and regularly trying to put shot-blockers on posters. Green can improve as a ball handler and decision-maker in the half-court, but his floor game is steadily evolving, as is his defensive intensity to go along with already sharp instincts.
To put his talent into perspective: While playing up a year, Green led the 2018 Under-17 USA team in scoring with 15.7 points per game in just 18.7 minutes in seven games featuring projected first-round picks Killian Hayes, Isaac Okoro, RJ Hampton and Theo Maledon. While potential 2021 top picks Cade Cunningham (Oklahoma State) and Evan Mobley (USC) are steady, two-way contributors, Green brings the most sizzle and excitement to go along with an aggressive approach. -- Schmitz
How is this team of prospects in the G League actually going to work?
The G League is at an early stage of making these decisions, and signing a player of Green's caliber should only increase the number of interested options for coaches and teammates.
Isaiah Todd, the No. 13 recruit in the 2020 class according to ESPN's recruiting experts, will also join the team. Other uncommitted players such as Makur Maker, Karim Mane and Kai Sotto might be candidates for the program as well. It's possible that top-10 recruit Greg Brown, who is close to announcing his college destination, will look at the G League venture more closely now.
The G League is expected to fill out the rest of the roster with older NBA veterans, who will be tasked with providing leadership and guidance. These veterans could use this venture as a platform to transition to the next stage of their careers in coaching or front offices. A particular emphasis will be put on finding good teammates who know what their role is within the team and venture. -- Givony
How much is Green going to make? What are other players on the team expected to make?
While Green is expected to make approximately $500,000 in salary and bonuses for his season in the G League, a degree of flexibility exists on contracts for other prospects. The next recruit to join is expected to be paid closer to $250,000.
Those bonuses will consist of things such as games played, community events and participation in off-court development sessions. It appears that the G League is looking to avoid players signing up for the venture, playing a handful of games over several weeks and then shutting it down for the rest of the season when their draft stock appears assured.
As ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported, talks have stalled between the NBA and the union on ending the one-and-done draft model, which requires players turn 19 years old and be a year removed from their high school graduation before entering the draft. This revamped program is a potential bridge to the elimination of the age limit.
Green not only will earn money from his G League contract, but he'll also be able to sign a lucrative sneaker deal that would push him into seven-figure territory. Had the age limit not existed, Green would have been a contender for the No. 1 pick in the 2020 draft already, so he has likely moved himself to the front of the line in this class for endorsement opportunities. -- Givony
How does Green's salary compare to other players?
Considering that the standard pay in the G League is $35,000, Green's salary with bonuses could field an entire roster for one season. Besides the $35,000 in base pay, players can also earn an additional $50,000 if they attend training camp with an NBA team and have an Exhibit 10 included in their contract. To earn the additional compensation, player need to spend 60 days with that G League affiliate.
The Green salary also tops that of a player signed to a two-way contract with an NBA team who appeared on the roster for the maximum of 45 days. The base pay for a two-way player this season was $79,568, with the player receiving an additional $5,075 for every day he was on an NBA roster. For example, between his base pay and his 24 days on the Boston Celtics roster, Tacko Fall's total salary this year was around $200,000.
Green's salary is still well short of a player on a minimum NBA contract with zero years of service. This past season, the minimum was worth $898,310. -- Marks
Why is the NBA making this kind of investment?
With the NBA season suspended and the league expecting a significant loss in revenue, this is a major investment -- one the NBA has to think will pay off long term, both practically and financially.
After Hampton, a projected lottery pick, signed with the New Zealand Breakers last spring, NBA commissioner Adam Silver told ESPN's Get Up that he was "a little jealous" that the Australian NBL had signed Hampton, adding that, "We are, in our G League, trying to create our own professional track. ... I'm going to talk to [Abdur-Rahim] and say, 'What should we be looking at differently? For an American player who decides that college isn't for me, there should be an alternative opportunity in the U.S. to do that.'"
Abdur-Rahim echoed those thoughts in a recent conversation with ESPN, saying: "The NBA is the best development system in the world, and those players shouldn't have to go somewhere else to develop for a year. They should be in our development system.." -- Givony
What effects could this have on front offices during the draft process?
NBA teams have to love it from a scouting perspective, both on and off the court. Expect Green (and his future teammates) to become the most heavily scouted and scrutinized draft prospect in recent memory.
There will be multiple opportunities to scout these players in an environment that is not only ideal from a seating perspective close to the court, but also one against NBA-caliber competition.
Teams also will get a glimpse of how Green and his teammates handle the professional environment. Some of the usual college comforts for elite prospects will be replaced with more rigorous travel and independent living.
Green could either be a trendsetter for future prospects to follow to the G League or a case for why players should go to college despite the financial incentive of turning professional. -- Marks
Will these G League prospects have an advantage in the draft?
We don't know yet, and we'll never know what kind of season Green might have had at Auburn or Memphis, had he chosen that path.
I do think that when you're talking about a player of Green's caliber, there isn't all that much risk here. There will always be a market for guys with his skillset. He could probably sit at home for a year and still be a high draft pick, but that could end up costing him significantly from a development standpoint. That's where the G League has a powerful message to convey about the program it's trying to build. Of course, there's some uncertainty involved in any new venture, and there are likely to be kinks that need to be worked out early on. -- Givony
How does life in the G League generally compare to playing in college or internationally?
As Bobby touched on, it's drastically different, and the locker room dynamic is an important thing to keep in mind.
I worked for the Bakersfield Jam as a video coordinator during the 2012-13 season. At the time, I couldn't have imagined an 18-year-old top prospect making it through a full G League season. Although we had a big staff, our own facility and great chemistry, that wasn't the norm at the time. The constantly changing roster seemed far from ideal for a teenage prospect, especially one with some clout.
Whether it's the NBA-assignment players who were frustrated they were sent down in the first place, the college stars who felt they should be in the league or the journeyman grinders fighting to support their families, few of them would take kindly to a high schooler being paid significantly more money to take their minutes. At the time, the league was more for NBA players fighting to make it back or build their résumé for Europe.
The league has certainly changed since then. The fact that Green will be joining a prospect-laden team makes much more sense than the original model. Surrounding these players with veterans who no longer have professional playing aspirations and truly are there to serve as mentors will be important in avoiding jealousy and dysfunction.
This new situation reminds me much more of a model you'll see on occasion in Europe with clubs such as Mega Bemax out of Serbia, which helped develop Nikola Jokic and Goga Bitadze.
Unlike Real Madrid and Barcelona, Mega is made up of predominantly young prospects and has become a hot spot for players given the opportunity to grow by playing through mistakes. Prioritizing development over winning, Mega generally struggles in the more competitive Adriatic League against veteran clubs, but it also competes in the local Serbian League, a lower level where the young prospects are able to find more success and gain confidence.
This new team full of prospects figures to suffer blowouts against actual G League teams, as the level of competition is arguably better than it has ever been. And while some scouts value the ability to go see a prospect play heavy minutes, some take Mega Bemax production with a grain of salt given the advantageous situation, so making sure prospects don't develop bad habits in a losing environment will be important.
If the league can surround these players with the right resources and veteran leadership while finding opportunities for them to play in meaningful games against reasonable competition, this could develop into a viable option. -- Schmitz