What moves should the Brooklyn Nets consider at the 2020 NBA trade deadline and in the upcoming offseason as they build around Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving?
After signing two of the top players in the 2019 NBA free agency, the Nets have had a rocky season, currently holding a 20-26 record and the No. 8 spot in the Eastern Conference. After he returned from an extended absence due to injury, Irving pointed out -- in comments he would later clarify -- that the need for additional talent on Brooklyn's roster was glaring.
So what big decisions does this franchise face as it prepares to compete for a title next season? And what is the Nets' best path forward? Let's take a look.
Trade-deadline approach
Entering this season, ESPN's Kevin Pelton projected Brooklyn to finish No. 8 in the East with 41 wins based on two factors: no Durant for the entire season and a high roster turnover that would impact the team defensively.
Despite a number of absences from rotation players -- including Irving (28 games), Caris LeVert (25 games) and Wilson Chandler (25 games) -- Brooklyn has mostly upheld those projections. Despite the sub-.500 record, any move at the deadline should prioritize long-term contention. The Nets are likely to snag one of the final two playoff spots or end up in the lottery when the season ends. Even if they do make the postseason, a first-round exit probably awaits.
Let's look at Brooklyn's options and decisions as Feb. 6 approaches.
Untouchable: Durant, Irving, LeVert, Taurean Prince and DeAndre Jordan
Those five represent 36% of the Nets' roster.
Irving and Durant are considered franchise players and are off the table when it comes to trade discussions. Even with Irving's injury history, the Nets are not going to pull a move similar to the Clippers with Blake Griffin and move him in a trade.
LeVert and Prince both signed extensions before the season and have poison-pill restrictions in their contracts. Although both technically can be traded, history has shown that no player in the last year of his rookie deal was traded in the same season after agreeing to an extension. With a gap between how incoming and outgoing salary is counted, the math is too complicated.
And Jordan is considered a leader in the locker room. Irving and Durant restructured their contracts to help facilitate his deal. Combine his internal value along with the $30 million owed on his deal past this season and Jordan is off the board.
Tradable contracts and the challenges of becoming a buyer
There's a common phrase used in NBA front offices: "In order to become a buyer at the deadline, you need to become a seller first." That message is especially true for this Brooklyn team.
For example, if the Nets want to upgrade at power forward by acquiring a player such as the Orlando Magic's Aaron Gordon, it probably would cost them Spencer Dinwiddie or Joe Harris (and possibly both) along with draft assets. And that alone might not be enough to get a deal done. That hypothetical trade fills a need at one position, but it would leave the Nets exposed at point guard and shooting guard. The safety net that Brooklyn had when both Irving and LeVert were injured would be gone.
But Gordon would be the perfect complement to this Nets roster. As ESPN's Zach Lowe noted, "The best version of Gordon on a good team is something like his take on Draymond Green: screening and rolling as a power forward, spraying passes (Gordon is an underrated playmaker), defending like all hell across every position."
For the past two years, Brooklyn has gone by committee at the 4. Last season, it was Rodions Kurucs, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Jared Dudley. This season, it has been Prince, Kurucs and Chandler. After primarily playing small forward for his first three seasons in Atlanta, Prince has been fine at PF in Brooklyn -- about a neutral presence while logging 86% of his 36 minutes per game at the position, per Cleaning the Glass. There is certainly a role for him on a good team but not as a permanent starter.
Below you can see whom the Nets have available to trade, minus those five untouchable players:
Dinwiddie is in the first year of a $34 million extension and has a player option for 2021-22. If he continues to play at a starting point guard (and often All-Star) level, expect him to opt out of his contract and become an unrestricted free agent in 18 months. Harris is in the final year of a $15 million contract. Leaguewide, he is considered the No. 3 shooting guard on the market this summer behind DeMar DeRozan and Evan Fournier (both have player options).
Assuming Harris, Dinwiddie and Jarrett Allen are staying put leaves Brooklyn with six players who earn a combined $15 million in the form of veterans (Chandler, Garrett Temple) or developing young pieces (Dzanan Musa, Kurucs, Theo Pinson and Nicolas Claxton). It's difficult to find an immediate and long-term upgrade with that kind of package.
Draft assets and the buyout market
We saw a change of philosophy last June when Brooklyn traded its own 2020 first-rounder (lottery protected) and Allen Crabbe to acquire Prince from the Hawks. That move not only opened up $15 million in cap space but also showed that general manager Sean Marks was willing to sacrifice draft assets to improve the roster now. That type of trade wasn't on the table from 2016 through 2018.
Despite sacrificing some draft assets, if the first-rounder is conveyed to Atlanta in 2020, the Nets will have seven first-round picks of which four can be used to improve via trade. They also hold multiple second-round picks moving forward.
And the Nets are one of nine teams that still have an open roster spot available. They can either explore the buyout market, sign a player such as Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot to a rest-of-season contract or sign multiple players to 10-day deals. Because the 10-day contract for Luwawu-Cabarrot expires on Feb. 3, expect Brooklyn to hold off on signing him until closer to the March 1 buyout deadline.
The priority for the Nets should be to hold an open roster spot and explore minimum-contract players on non-playoff teams in deals where they would not have to send back a contract to make the money work. The Warriors' Alec Burks and Glenn Robinson III would be good fits. But this confluence of factors makes it unlikely Brooklyn can or should swing for a major upgrade before the deadline. The Nets will have more options this summer.
Offseason questions
The good news for Brooklyn is that 13 players are under contract to return in 2020-21. The downside is that those players account for $144 million in salary -- $3 million above the projected luxury tax. In other words, things are about to get expensive.
Here are the questions that the Nets will face in the offseason, including their own free agents and potential trades:
The cost of Joe Harris
After earning $7.7 million this season, Harris will see his salary climb to at least the $9.8 million midlevel exception in free agency -- and it could rise to a range of $12 million to $14 million if a rebuilding team with cap space is willing to spend on a position of need. Because Brooklyn is a projected tax team, signing Harris to a conservative salary that starts at $12 million would see the tax bill increase from $4.5 million to $28.7 million. But if the Nets let Harris walk, they will have only the $6 million taxpayer midlevel exception or minimums available to replace him.
"We're going to be a tax team," Marks told ESPN this month. "We are married to that. There's a limited amount of times and ways you can continue to add to your team. You better do it now. You're gearing up for a run."
But how much of that luxury tax bill will ownership be willing to spend? If Memphis or New York drives up Harris' price, Brooklyn might need to walk. Remember that Brooklyn is under new ownership with Joe Tsai, and paying a substantial tax bill would be the billionaire's welcome to the NBA moment. But as Marks said, Brooklyn knew the cost would be substantial to compete for a championship.
Dinwiddie's expiring contract
Dinwiddie chose financial security in December 2018 when he signed a three-year, $34.4 million extension. The point guard now has a $12.3 million player option that he probably will exercise after the 2020-21 season and become a free agent. Starting on Dec. 14, Dinwiddie will be eligible to sign another extension for up to four years and $62 million.
However, with half of the NBA projected to have $15 million or more in cap space in 2021 and Dinwiddie establishing himself as a starting point guard, it's likely that he will pursue a more lucrative payday compared to what Brooklyn could offer in an extension.
The Nets do have Dinwiddie's full Bird rights and could sign him to a new contract in 2021, but are they willing to commit $50 million combined to Irving and Dinwiddie at point guard?
Jarrett Allen extension?
This would be last on Brooklyn's to-do list. Allen will be extension eligible when the moratorium lifts on July 6. However, because he will become a restricted free agent in 2021 and the team has the ability to match, the Nets don't need to move right away. Unless Allen is willing to agree to a team-friendly deal in the $12 million to $14 million range, they should let the restricted tag help determine his value -- even in an active free-agency market.
While there is a pattern of Brooklyn extending players on rookie deals, those have come on the Nets' terms. The contracts for LeVert and Prince will be positive trade assets in July if the Nets are trying to make a major upgrade. And while a new contract for Allen would not impact the Nets' luxury tax bill in 2020-21, the team already projects to have a $148 million bill between salaries and tax the following season (before factoring in new deals for Harris or Allen).
The roster
Brooklyn can get more creative in trade talks this summer.
While Harris could only be used in a complicated sign-and-trade, the poison-pill restrictions would be removed for LeVert ($16.2 million) and Prince ($12.3 million). Brooklyn could use those two deals and their other trade assets to try to acquire an All-Star-level player such as Kevin Love or Gordon. (Remember that LeVert played for current Cavaliers head coach John Beilein at Michigan). But again, moving a player like LeVert would stretch Brooklyn's depth if Harris is not re-signed.
So adding a major piece like Irving referenced earlier this month will not be easy. Brooklyn needs to find a free agent willing to take a discount like Serge Ibaka or Jae Crowder, a hidden gem in the draft (don't forget Memphis took Brandon Clarke at No. 21) or decide it's OK sacrificing draft assets along with a combination of LeVert, Dinwiddie and Prince for a third star next to Irving and Durant. That will be a massive decision for this franchise, but one it should wait to make until closer to the draft and free agency.