Why have the LA Clippers slumped since mid-December, losing ground in the Western Conference standings? Could a trade boost their chances of winning the first championship in franchise history?
On Dec. 13, the Clippers were 20-7 and looking up only at their Staples Center co-tenants, the Los Angeles Lakers, in the West standings. But since then, the Clippers have been barely better than .500 (8-6), sliding into fourth in the West and putting their chances of hosting a playoff series in jeopardy.
Even if this is just a midseason malaise for the Clippers, could they stand to upgrade their core in anticipation of a possible postseason matchup against the Lakers -- one that now looks as if it could come a round earlier than anticipated?
Clippers struggling defensively without Kawhi
Over the course of the season, the Clippers boast top-10 units at both ends of the court, a typical baseline for championship contention. A look at the overall numbers, however, obscures that the Clippers have really had two wildly different defenses: an elite one with former Defensive Player of the Year Kawhi Leonard on the court and a mediocre one without him.
When Leonard plays, the Clippers give up 101.4 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA Advanced Stats, a mark that would put them in the NBA's top three. But when Leonard sits -- which he does often because of ongoing management of a patella tendon injury to his left knee -- their defensive rating balloons to 108.0 points per 100 possessions, worse than league average. During the 10 games Leonard has missed entirely, opponents have scored better than their season averages, a key reason the Clippers have gone just 5-5 in those games. (That's already as many as Leonard's Toronto Raptors lost when he sat out last season, as their 17-5 record in those games helped them post the NBA's second-best record en route to the title.)
The Clippers' defensive woes without Leonard make more sense in the context of who has played those minutes. Though the Clippers boast a pair of past All-Defensive first-team picks in guard Patrick Beverley and wing Paul George, those two have played barely more than a third of the minutes Leonard has been sitting because they've teamed with Leonard in the Clippers' starting five (and George has missed more than a third of the team's games himself).
Holdovers Montrezl Harrell and Lou Williams are the two Clippers who have played more than half the non-Leonard minutes (around 70% each), and while that duo has helped the team stay afloat offensively, it's little surprise they are less effective at the other end of the court. After all, last season's Clippers team driven by the Harrell-Williams bench combo finished 19th in defensive rating with a net rating (plus-1.0 points per 100 possessions) similar to that of this season's group sans Leonard (plus-0.2).
Defense also looms large in the Clippers' holiday swoon. Over the past month, they boast the league's sixth-best offensive rating -- better than they've managed the full season. But their defensive rating in that span has dropped all the way to 18th despite Leonard playing a relatively higher share of the team's minutes. Consistent energy seems to be a culprit. The Clippers' defense was as good as ever against the Lakers in a Christmas Day victory but disastrously awful in an early-January loss at Memphis and a narrow home win over the lowly Knicks without Leonard.
The good news is the Clippers are still in good shape in terms of seeding. They've played a more difficult schedule so far than the other teams battling for second in the West, and of that group only the Dallas Mavericks (plus-7.4) have a better point differential than the Clippers (plus-6.1). As a result, statistical projections favor the Clippers to claim the second seed and home-court advantage through a possible Western Conference finals matchup with the Lakers. Projections based on ESPN's Basketball Power Index give the Clippers a 39% chance of finishing second and just a 15% chance of ending up outside the top four.
Come playoff time, the Clippers' defensive issues will be aided by simply playing Leonard more minutes. So far, he has spent almost as much time on the bench as playing for the Clippers. By contrast, during last season's championship run, Kawhi played more than 80% of Toronto's playoff run. Still, it's worth pondering whether Williams' defense in particular could be an issue in the playoffs.
Do the Clippers need another closer?
Though the Clippers are notably deep in terms of rotation-caliber players -- nine players have been worth at least 0.7 wins above replacement this season by my metric, tying LA with Milwaukee, Philadelphia and San Antonio for most in the NBA -- they still might be a little short on reliable options at the end of a close playoff game.
At times this season, Doc Rivers has finished games with one of JaMychal Green, Maurice Harkless and Landry Shamet on the court. For the most part, however, his closing five has featured Beverley, George, Harrell, Leonard and Williams.
Despite Williams' history of clutch heroics, he largely has been a third option in those groups. According to Second Spectrum data, he has taken only six shots in what the NBA defines as clutch situations (last five minutes of regulation and any OT, score within five points) with both George (who has taken a team-high 12) and Leonard (9) on the court. Overall, Williams' usage rate drops from 33% of the team's plays when both George and Leonard sit to 21% when he plays with both of them -- without a corresponding bump in his efficiency. (His true shooting percentage actually drops slightly, from .585 to .574.)
The question then becomes whether the more limited value Williams brings on offense as a third option will compensate for opponents targeting him defensively in the playoffs. Late in games, getting Williams switched on a star player is an attractive option for opponents -- although not one the Lakers employed in their two losses to the Clippers, when Williams was allowed to hide on nonthreatening spot-up shooters down the stretch.
With George and Leonard handling the bulk of the shot creation, the Clippers might prefer another 3-and-D option -- one whose game is more complete than Harkless' and Shamet's. Ideally, that player would also supply secondary playmaking, a weakness for the Clippers. (They've assisted on just 56% of their field goals this season, putting them 24th in the NBA.)
That combination sounds a lot like Andre Iguodala, whom the Clippers might be able to acquire by packaging their first-round draft pick, Harkless and another player, most plausibly Jerome Robinson. The Clippers can trade their 2020 first-round pick but after this draft won't be able to trade a first-round pick until the 2021 draft concludes, at which point they'd be able to trade their 2028 first-rounder. So the Clippers would be using some of their precious remaining draft capital on a likely rental.
As strictly a rental, Iguodala probably isn't worth the cost to the Clippers, even with the side benefit of keeping him away from the Lakers.
Instead, Marcus Morris Sr. seems to be a more likely Clippers target after they pursued him in free agency last summer. At $15 million, he could be swapped for Harkless and a player making the minimum (either Patrick Patterson or Derrick Walton Jr.). Though Morris doesn't provide the playmaking of Iguodala, he'd offer the Clippers defensive versatility and floor spacing, having hit 47% of his 3s so far this season and 37% for his career. Using non-Bird rights, the Clippers could pay Morris a starting salary up to $18 million to return in free agency.
Other interesting possibilities open up if the Clippers decide Williams' defensive limitations make him more valuable to another team. Given his reasonable contract ($8 million this season and next), Williams probably has more trade value than the first-round pick the Clippers have to offer. But finding a workable trade probably requires involving a third team since those who need Williams' skills probably don't have the kind of quality two-way contributors the Clippers would want in return.
If the Clippers could get a better first-round pick and another expiring contract for Williams, perhaps then they could make a run at Toronto's Kyle Lowry with an eye toward reuniting him with his former teammate Leonard in pursuit of another title.
The heaviest lifting for the Clippers' front office came last summer, when a series of deals culminating with their trade for George put them in position to sign Leonard as a free agent. Still, with the Lakers looming as a formidable West foe, the Clippers might have some work left to do before the deadline to complete their finishing lineups.