What does Gordon Hayward's broken hand mean for the Boston Celtics?
Hayward's injury comes at a frustrating time, given he was looking like his old self after a down season in 2018-19 following the fractured tibia he suffered in October 2017 during his Boston debut. Over the first seven games of the season, Hayward had averaged 20.3 points, 7.9 rebounds and 4.6 assists -- similar production to his final campaign with the Utah Jazz, which resulted in Hayward's only All-Star appearance to date.
What had allowed Hayward to get back to form and how can the Celtics replace that performance? Let's take a look.
Breaking down Hayward's hot start
Having begun the 2018-19 season as a starter for Boston, Hayward relinquished the job in mid-November and started only 18 of his 72 games. With an additional offseason to move past his injury and with the departure of Al Horford, he has returned to the starting lineup this season and played well enough to justify it.
One difference is that he's playing with the ball in his hands more frequently. According to analysis by Second Spectrum tracking on NBA Advanced Stats, Hayward had possessed the ball approximately 17.3% of his minutes on offense this season entering Saturday's game, up from 15.4% in 2018-19.
Above and beyond that, Hayward has been more aggressive with his opportunities. Though Hayward's 4.6 assists per game would have been the second most of his career, on a per-possession basis his assist rate is largely unchanged from 2018-19. It's Hayward's usage rate, instead, that had increased from 19% last season to 22%. That's still not as high as the 27.6% of the Jazz plays Hayward finished in 2016-17, but that came on a team with far fewer offensive options than this season's Celtics.
In part, Hayward has benefited this season from unsustainably hot shooting. Entering Saturday, he'd made an even 50% of his 44 attempts outside the paint, according to NBA Advanced Stats data, up from 37.1% last season. Only during his rookie season, when he averaged 16.9 minutes off the bench, has Hayward even made 40% of his shots outside the paint, so it's unlikely he'll keep that accuracy up when he returns.
At the same time, Hayward had improved both the volume of his shot attempts and the quality of them. Per Second Spectrum's quantified shot quality (qSQ) measure, an average player would be expected to post a 54.1% effective field goal percentage on the same shots based on their location, type and the distance of nearby defenders. That would be the highest qSQ for Hayward since camera tracking went leaguewide in 2013-14. He never in that span had a qSQ higher than 50% before it jumped to 53.3% last season.
It's also worth noting that Hayward was grabbing better than 20% of all available defensive rebounds, easily surpassing last season's career-high mark of 15.5%. That board work was important with Boston largely playing without a traditional power forward this season, leaving Hayward as the team's second-best rebounder on the court much of the time.
As Hayward's shooting cooled off, he probably would have dropped below 20 points per game, meaning an All-Star return was still something of a long shot. But in the first seven games, Hayward looked like the kind of max player Boston signed in the summer of 2017 rather than the lesser version we saw last season coming off the devastating injury.
How do the Celtics replace Hayward?
The good news for Boston is wing Jaylen Brown recently returned from an illness that sidelined him from three games, leaving the rest of the team's perimeter rotation at full strength. In Marcus Smart, coach Brad Stevens has a ready replacement for Hayward -- Smart started 60 games last season and the three Brown missed this season.
Swapping Hayward for Smart does give the Celtics a different look. They're smaller and somewhat weaker on the glass, but they lose nothing in terms of playmaking and add defensive versatility with the All-Defensive first-team pick last season stepping into the starting lineup.
The bigger drop-off for Boston during Hayward's absence will surely be replacing Smart's role off the bench. Because Brown and Jayson Tatum can play multiple positions, Stevens has plenty of options to tweak his rotation. I wouldn't be surprised if backup point guard Brad Wanamaker and rookie power forward Grant Williams both get a bit more playing time.
Intriguingly, Stevens gave extended minutes to 26-year-old rookie Javonte Green during the second half of Saturday's 135-115 victory over the San Antonio Spurs. (Hayward left with the broken hand just before halftime.) Green, who had spent the previous four seasons playing in Europe after going undrafted in 2015, won the final spot on the Boston roster in training camp. He's an active defender who might offer the Celtics a little more offense than combo forward Semi Ojeleye, who got rotation minutes during Brown's absence.
Boston's biggest concern is the possibility of another wing missing time before Hayward's return. That would deplete the Celtics' rotation and make it difficult for them to compete with quality opposition. Barring that, Boston should be able to survive a short-term absence for Hayward, making the real question here whether he's able to return at a similar level of play.
After waiting two years to get back to full strength on a consistent basis, Hayward's frustration at another setback would be understandable. Thankfully, this injury shouldn't have the same kind of lasting impact.