NBA mock draft: New risers and fallers in the lottery

What has changed in our NBA mock draft since the start of the college basketball season?

Here's our new projection for both rounds, plus the latest on the big risers and fallers.

ESPN's Basketball Power Index was used to project the draft order. Unlike our Top 100 rankings, this mock attempts to project which players will end up entering the draft.

Stock watch

Kevin Porter | SG | USC

Up from No. 21 to No. 9

Porter entered the season on our list of potential breakout freshmen, thanks to his tremendous talent level as a shifty shot-creator with effortless scoring instincts. We opted to err on the side of caution with his initial ranking, as his first month or so on campus featured a hand injury and highs and lows with effort and reliability. But Porter has started to settle in nicely in Los Angeles while wowing scouts with his combination of size, power, shot-making and live-dribble game. Porter's initial statement came against Darius Garland and Vanderbilt, with a host of NBA scouts and high-ranking executives on hand. He looked like a top-five pick for a stretch in the first half while scoring, facilitating with either hand and making plays defensively.

Porter now averages 22.1 points per 40 minutes on 65.6 percent from 2 and 35 percent from 3. If you flip on just his highlights, he looks like one of the more impressive freshmen in the country, with his dynamic transition play and ability to get his shot on command. But despite his improving stock, Porter has a ways to go in terms of impacting winning. He hasn't played in much structure throughout his career, so concepts such as team defense and offensive decision-making remain fairly foreign.

Teams will want to see Porter find more ways to win games and make his teammates better, as he certainly has the passing instincts but often lets opponents off the hook by settling for contested pull-ups. His next big test will come Dec. 1 against a tough Nevada team that figures to make him work on both ends of the floor. -- Schmitz

Ja Morant | PG | Murray State

Up from No. 16 to No. 10

Morant burst onto the NBA scouting radar with an outstanding freshman season at Murray State, followed by a breakout performance at the CP3 Elite Guard camp. With 50-plus NBA scouts in Tuscaloosa to watch him on Monday night, he took another huge step toward national prominence, dropping 38 points with eight rebounds and five assists on Alabama, and coming fairly close to pulling off the upset.

With this being just one of two games Murray State will play against high-major competition (the other coming on Dec. 22 against Auburn), this was an extremely important evaluation point for executives, giving them the rare opportunity to see Morant against NBA-caliber size, length and athleticism. Morant passed this test with flying colors, looking like by far the best athlete on the floor for all 40 minutes he played, as well as easily the best long-term prospect. The highlights he produced were overwhelmingly impressive, particularly the array of dunks he dropped, leaving a lasting impression that should go a long way in solidifying his candidacy as the top point guard in this draft.

Morant is one of the most explosive guards you'll find at the college level, both vertically and horizontally. He got to the rim whenever he pleased against Alabama's defense, changing gears from a standstill and attacking the paint with ferocity that belied his extremely narrow frame. He's an advanced ball handler with polished footwork and excellent body control, even if his lack of strength and average length makes it difficult for him to finish everything. He did a great job of blending his scoring with playmaking, showing excellent vision and creativity getting teammates involved, even if they weren't always able to convert for assists. He went 0-for-4 from beyond the arc, but he's showing a lot more promise with his jumper this season. He should be able to iron out this part of his game in time, as evidenced by the six 3s he made in his previous game.

Where Morant will have to improve the most once he reaches the NBA is with his frame, decision-making and casual approach to the game on both ends of the floor. He turned the ball over 10 times in this game, looking for home run passes a little too aggressively at times, and playing far too straight up off the ball defensively. He dies on screens frequently. He can be slow getting back on defense and very gambly trying to get in the passing lanes. That said, he shows plenty of potential in this part of his game as well, thanks to his quickness and instincts, and he should be able to become more solid in time with added strength and coaching.

Most every scout we spoke with after the game came away extremely impressed by what Morant displayed, leading us to move him into the top 10. -- Givony

Nickeil Alexander-Walker | PG/SG | Virginia Tech

Up from No. 26 to No. 17

The 20-year-old combo guard is gaining considerable steam among NBA scouts after an outstanding showing at the Charleston Classic, which included a 25-point, 7-rebound, 3-assist outing in a win over Purdue. Through five games (all wins), Alexander-Walker is averaging 19.6 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 2.4 steals on 60.9 percent shooting from 2 and 40 percent from 3. So far, he looks much more like the multifaceted big guard we envisioned when we first evaluated him at Adidas Nations in 2015, rather than the fairly one-dimensional spot-up shooter we saw last year.

In 33 games as a freshman, Alexander-Walker used only 35 pick-and-roll possessions, generating a measly 0.657 points per play while connecting on only four pull-up jumpers all season. Spot-ups made up 37.8 percent of his offense, with 68.5 percent of his shots classified as jump shots, according to Synergy Sports. Although it's still early, Alexander-Walker's greatly increased on-ball duties have done wonders for his draft stock. He has already used 30 pick-and-roll possessions (35.7 percent of his offense) and is 8-of-14 on pull-ups, looking much more dynamic on the move. Most importantly, he has shown the vision and ambidextrous live-dribble passing that should allow him to play on the ball some in the NBA.

He's rarely sped up and has the physical profile NBA teams are looking for in a big guard at 6-foot-6, 200 pounds with a 6-foot-9 wingspan. He's an instinctual, competitive defender who should be able to check positions 1-3 as his impressive frame continues to fill out. Alexander-Walker is a high-floor prospect who at the very least can knock down spot 3s, think the game at a high level and defend his position. But it's his growing ability to play on the ball that could catapult him into the lottery conversation in what's considered a weak point guard draft. He should be able to carry his momentum into conference play, as the Hokies won't truly be tested again until they travel to Virginia on Jan. 15. -- Schmitz

Eric Paschall | PF | Villanova

Down from No. 13 to No. 23

Villanova got off to a slow start, uncharacteristically losing two home games in the first 10 days of the season before rebounding this past weekend and winning the Advocare Invitational in Orlando, Florida. With Villanova losing four players off its national championship roster to the NBA, Paschall is clearly adjusting to a new role, going from being the fifth option in every lineup he played in last season to now ranking second on the team in usage. His efficiency has predictably taken a hit, and he's being asked to do things he has never done before -- something that might be good for his development but will certainly lead to many more ugly moments. NBA scouts have expressed some pessimism regarding how Paschall has looked, making it clear that he is likely more of a candidate for the later stages of the first round.

With very little ballhandling or shot creation on the roster, Villanova is playing a very different style of basketball than what we saw in the past, operating at one of the slowest tempos in college basketball (ranked 328th), which would be the slowest in Jay Wright's tenure at Villanova dating back to 2001. While some of Paschall's best minutes last season came as a small-ball center, he's being asked to play huge minutes at small forward this season, in super-sized defensive lineups alongside two very limited big men in Saddiq Bey and Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree. Paschall brings the ball up frequently and operates quite a bit off the dribble, exposing his average feel for the game and propensity for getting by opponents using sheer power.

So where does that leave Paschall? That really depends on how effective he'll be shooting the ball for the rest of the season and which version of him NBA teams remember come June. When Paschall is stepping into 3-pointers in rhythm -- even from NBA range -- he's very effective, despite the unconventional shooting mechanics that cause him to release the ball while hovering high in the air. When he's not spotting up in perfect rhythm, he looks off balance and will often miss badly. The spacing that bigs like Paschall enjoy from beyond the NBA arc will likely help him in this regard, and not having to make as many decisions with the ball in his hands will also improve his efficiency. Paschall is most effective when going up against slower-footed big men, not the wings he has often faced this season. Thankfully for Paschall, NBA teams have seen him in much more flattering roles than the one they will experience this season, both last year and at the Nike Academy in August, where he was named camp MVP. He'll likely take some lumps this season and will have to use the pre-draft process wisely to remind teams of where and how he's most effective during workouts. -- Givony

Jaxson Hayes | C | Texas

Hayes' meteoric rise is one of the more noteworthy stories in college basketball. A late-blooming recruit, Hayes has helped Texas to a 5-1 record with wins over North Carolina and Arkansas while looking like an eventual lottery pick. At 7 feet, with a 7-foot-4 wingspan, outstanding agility, soft hands, sharp defensive instincts, a high motor and excellent touch from the free throw line, Hayes had the bevy of NBA scouts in Orleans Arena buzzing with his play against both UNC and Michigan State. In that two-game stretch, he scored 26 points on 9-of-11 shooting, snared 12 rebounds (six offensive), blocked six shots and collected three steals in 52 total minutes. He executed NBA-caliber plays few bigs in the country make. Through six games, Hayes is one of only two players in the country averaging at least four blocks and five offensive rebounds per 40 minutes.

Hayes stood 6-foot-1 to start high school in Cincinnati, barely seeing time on the freshman team. He sprouted closer to 6-foot-4 as a sophomore, yet spent his time as a physically immature junior varsity reserve. He eventually shot up to about 6-foot-8 by his junior season yet still played only about six minutes per game at the varsity level. At closer to 6-foot-11 heading into his senior season, Hayes started to turn potential into production, gaining more and more high-major buzz playing with Romeo Langford on the Adidas circuit. Kentucky came in with an offer, but Hayes chose the Longhorns, who were on him early in the process.

His father, Jonathan, spent 12 seasons in the NFL as a tight end, and he's now in his 16th season as the Cincinnati Bengals' tight ends coach. Jaxson Hayes was a standout football player himself prior to his growth spurt. The hoop genes come from his mother, Kristi, who was a five-sport athlete in high school before earning a basketball scholarship to Drake, where she won Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year as a senior and finished her career with more than 1,500 points.

Hayes is the exact type of high-intangible late-bloomer teams are looking for. He's certainly not short on improvement areas, though, as his lack of high-level experience shows up at times. His physicality and awareness on the defensive glass can improve. He's a bit foul-prone at this stage. He has yet to show much in terms of vision on the offensive end. While still a work in progress, Hayes has exceeded expectations, exciting NBA scouts in the process. The 2019 draft is short on useful bigs, and Hayes has all the makings of an eventual draft riser as he continues to evolve in Austin. -- Schmitz

More scouting notes

• Vanderbilt guard Darius Garland will miss the rest of the season following a meniscus injury, the school announced Tuesday. Execs from NBA teams that ESPN consulted with say they typically don't get overly concerned with an injury of this nature, as many players suffer meniscus tears at some point during their careers and it's a fairly straight-forward injury to manage.

"As long as we can see him at full strength in workouts, and our doctors don't express concern with the long-term prognosis of his knee after evaluating him, I don't see this having much impact on his draft stock," an NBA general manager told ESPN.

Garland averaged 16.2 points, 3.8 rebounds and 2.6 assists in 28 minutes in five games at Vanderbilt, shooting 58 percent from 2-point range and 48 percent from 3. -- Givony

• Although he has been quite productive on a per-40-minute basis, Western Kentucky freshman center Charles Bassey had his struggles in front of NBA scouts at the Charleston Classic, and he's looking more like a second-round talent than a sure first-rounder. Bassey was sporting a bulky right knee brace in Charleston, which seemed to affect his mobility. He struggled sitting down on the perimeter to defend pick-and-rolls. While his strong frame, 7-foot-3 wingspan and potential as a rim-protector are intriguing, he remains extremely raw on the offensive end of the floor and hasn't proven quite dominant or modern enough defensively to warrant a first-round spot. -- Schmitz

• Quentin Grimes' college career got off to an extremely impressive start, scoring 21 points with four assists in Kansas' victory over Michigan State at the Champions Classic on the opening night of the season. He has struggled badly since, scoring just 14 points on 3-of-14 shooting in his past three games, which included two high-profile matchups at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn as part of the NIT Season Tip-Off. Grimes is being asked to adjust to a very different role than the one NBA teams had seen him in up until this point in his career, as he's now mostly an off-ball wing who waits for secondary ball-handling opportunities. Kansas runs a significant amount of its offense through the highly experienced and productive big tandem of Dedric Lawson and Udoka Azubuike, with the majority of the playmaking responsibilities tasked to Lawson and starting point guard Devon Dotson. Senior shooting guard Lagerald Vick is an influential part of their offensive attack as well with his ability to space the floor.

Grimes has appeared tentative attacking ball screens, struggling to make shots off the dribble and looking limited with his ability to create high-percentage offense inside the arc. It's too early to draw too many long-term conclusions, as he isn't the first freshman to struggle under the highly demanding Bill Self, but scouts will want to see Grimes be a lot more productive once conference play rolls around to justify his lofty projection. -- Givony