Throughout the season, we're checking in on which big NBA trends are real or not.
In this edition: Who has been the best rookie, and which team will finish with the greatest NBA draft lottery odds?
Buy or sell: Deandre Ayton has been the best rookie so far
Ayton was the No. 1 overall pick in a strong rookie class, and he entered the season with high expectations. However, there was another rookie selected two picks later with even higher immediate hype in Luka Doncic. Doncic had a relatively long, very successful professional career in Europe and was considered perhaps the most NBA-ready member of the class. Trae Young, Marvin Bagley III, Wendell Carter Jr. and Jaren Jackson Jr. make up the other elite draft picks who are playing well out of the gate.
Which one has played the best so far?
Doncic has been the leading scorer among rookies at 20.2 PPG on 59.9 percent true shooting (TS%). He has displayed an expectedly strong all-around game, and he's coming off a week in which he shot better than the magical numbers of 50 percent from the field, 80 percent from the line and 40 percent from behind the arc. He needs to take better care of the ball (averaging four turnovers per game), but Doncic has already settled in as a leader for the Mavericks.
Young has also started the season very strong, leading rookies with 8.2 APG to bolster his 18.6 PPG on 52.1 TS%. Young is an inconsistent and somewhat inefficient scorer, as expected, but his court vision and floor generalship are even better than advertised and make him a dynamic offensive threat right out of the gate. Young's biggest weakness thus far has been on defense, and he needs to get stronger and more aggressive.
Jackson and Carter have both made early cases as the best defensive players in the class, and Bagley has shown dynamic offensive ability with some disruptive tendencies on defense that should improve as he puts on some weight and develops greater feel.
But with all of that said, I am buying that Ayton has been the best rookie so far. He is averaging a strong double-double with 15.7 PPG on an impressive 61.5 TS% to go along with a class-leading 10.8 RPG. Ayton has shown a complete offensive game, knocking down midrange jumpers and displaying strong passing skills to support his awesome size and explosiveness in the paint.
Ayton leads the rookie class in every composite box score stat (such as PER), but more important, the Suns have been 12.5 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor.
He's also the only rookie ranked in the top 100 of ESPN's real plus-minus, and the only player among this prolific group with a positive on-court impact according to RPM.
Buy or sell: The Cavaliers will finish with the greatest draft lottery odds
When LeBron James signed with the Los Angeles Lakers this summer, everyone knew that it was the end of the Cavaliers' run of four straight NBA Finals appearances. The question then became, just how far would they fall?
About a month into the season, they have the worst record in the NBA, having won only one of their first 11 games.
The Cavs have also been hit hard by injury, with remaining All Star Kevin Love sidelined for up to two months with a toe injury that required surgery. In addition, starting point guard George Hill is out for two weeks with a shoulder injury, starting forward Cedi Osman is out with back spasms and Love's replacement in the starting lineup Sam Dekker is out as well with an ankle sprain.
The injuries could be a mixed blessing for a young team like the Cavs, as it should allow expanded roles for lottery pick Collin Sexton and other youngsters Jordan Clarkson, Rodney Hood, Larry Nance Jr. and David Nwaba. It also basically assures Cleveland keeps its top-10 protected 2019 draft pick.
ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) projects the Atlanta Hawks as the team most likely to have the worst record, and they only have two more wins than the Cavs entering the weekend. However, the Hawks are returning to health, with young big John Collins close to seeing the court again and rookie Trae Young playing well. The Phoenix Suns have the worst scoring margin in the NBA at -12.6 -- worse than the Cavaliers' -10.6 margin -- but they also have healthier young talent to build around with Devin Booker and Ayton as their focal points.
All three squads have at least a 73 percent chance at landing a top-5 pick in the draft, per BPI. The best odds after that belong to the Chicago Bulls with a 46.1 percent chance. But the Hawks and Suns seem more ready to compete than a Love-less Cavaliers team that hasn't shown much in the way of urgency. I buy that right now the Cavs are the team most likely to finish with the worst record in the NBA.