As has been the case for most of his basketball career, Donovan Mitchell quickly won over NBA fans, players, coaches and scouts with his explosiveness, game-changing energy, competitiveness and ultra-confident yet genuine personality.
Mitchell's stock shot up through the pre-draft process largely because of his stellar interviews, in addition to his shot-making and explosiveness in workouts. One high-ranking team executive called his pre-draft interview one of the most impressive he'd ever seen while at the NBA combine in Chicago. Mitchell improved every year at Louisville, and there were certainly some can't-miss elements that led scouts to believe he would maximize his long-term potential.
But what most talent evaluators couldn't have projected was that 42 games into his NBA career Mitchell would be thriving playing on the ball, looking like a future lead guard at times.
Mitchell has produced like a star in the making who can terrorize pick-and-roll defenses with his three-level scoring while also mixing in more thoughtful playmaking than scouts would have projected given his sometimes-erratic style of play at Louisville. He's rapidly evolving into a primary ball-handler -- something even Mitchell didn't expect.
"I was really shaky dribbling the ball [in high school]," Mitchell said in the preseason. "I didn't really want to dribble the ball. I was kind of just comfortable playing off the ball, just getting to the basket whenever I could. The fact that I'm doing it and I'm doing it so fast I've been kind of amazed at myself."
Mitchell has spent 42 percent of his minutes at point guard this season, according to Cleaning The Glass. While still playing with a score-first mentality and showing room for growth as a decision-maker, his progress as a ball-screen scorer and facilitator has been extremely impressive. During his past 20 games, Mitchell is averaging 23-plus points per game on better than 60 percent from 2-point range and 34 percent from 3-point range, with a large dose of that coming as the primary ball handler.
While he still does damage as an off-ball spot-shooter, cutter or lob-catcher, the Jazz are actually better across the board when Mitchell plays on the ball as opposed to off it. Utah scores more points per possession with a better effective field-goal percentage (eFG), turns the ball over slightly less and gets to the free throw line at a much higher rate when Mitchell is at the 1.
Although not as effective inside the arc, the Jazz are much more efficient from 3-point territory when Mitchell is at the point, connecting on 42.7 percent of triples as opposed to 34.9. The Jazz are also in the 95th percentile on corner 3s when Mitchell runs the show, which speaks to his improved ability to think the game out of ball-screens situations.
He showed us glimpses of that at Louisville, but he was too often sped up, pulling up for contested jumpers early in the clock or barreling into helpside defenders without much of a plan. He's quickly learned to play at different speeds, see both sides of the floor, read tagging defenders and pick apart defenses in a way few could have projected. Most teams that evaluated Mitchell thought he could slide into an Avery Bradley type of role with more length and pop.
Although it can come in glimpses, 42 games into his NBA career Mitchell has put the league on notice, showing his tremendous potential. If he can continue to progress as a lead guard, Mitchell will likely elevate his outlook from future All-Star scorer to franchise cornerstone.
To understand how impressive Mitchell's progression has been, it's important to know the type of player he was prior to the NBA.
Prep school and Louisville
Because of his long arms, big hands, huge feet and explosiveness, Mitchell was identified as a prospect early on in his high school career.
"He was flagged early, but not for reasons you would think watching him now," said New England-based ESPN high school recruiting analyst Adam Finkelstein, who estimates that he evaluated Mitchell more than 30 times at the high school level.
"He was an explosive athlete, that was really the basis for it," said Finkelstein, recalling the first time he ever saw Mitchell. "But early on he was an unskilled, explosive athlete. We were all kind of betting a future growth spurt because he had these big feet. Everybody thought, oh he's going to grow, he's going to grow, he's going to end up being this big, athletic, powerful wing. Well he didn't grow. I don't think he grew at all. He was still the guy who couldn't really shoot. He was definitely more of a wing than a guard. His trademark play was really the tip-dunk. He'd get like one a game at least. It was pretty exceptional stuff."
Mitchell played third fiddle to Jalen Adams (UConn) and Justin Simon (St. John's) after transferring to Brewster Academy. Adams was the most talented player of the three and Simon was seen as potentially the best long-term prospect. Mitchell was physically impressive but a streaky shooter, a rigid ball-handler and not much of a natural decision-maker on the court.
Even going into his senior season, Mitchell wasn't projected as a lock to be an eventual first-round pick, let alone emerge as a rookie of the year candidate. After the Reebok camp going into Mitchell's senior year, Finkelstein's scouting report read: "Improved jumper on display, but not as good of a shooter as he looked in spurts here. Strong body. Big feet. High character. Competes defensively. Power straight line driver but lacks agility on way to rim. A little undersized power guard."
Although his mentality and tools were always A-plus, this isn't a situation where Mitchell was misevaluated. He started only five of 31 games as a freshman at Louisville and has truly improved every single year since he was first tabbed as a prospect. While the long arms, rugged frame and two-foot bounce have always been there, his skill-set is self-made.
"I've never seen a guard so drastically improve in a two-year college window," Finkelstein said. "I've seen guys who have gotten a lot better but this guy's like a totally different player. What used to be very obvious liabilities are now budding strengths."
What teams may have undervalued is Mitchell's combination of unique physical tools, extreme determination and never-ending confidence. His shot continued to get better and better each season. He wowed at pre-draft workouts and in L.A. runs against other CAA clients, including Chris Paul and Paul George. He played with an alpha mentality, and he put in the work to back it up.
During NBA pre-draft combine week, we went to watch Mitchell workout. Not only did he shoot the lights out, but he displayed incredible discipline in his craft. While most prospects casually get shots up for maintenance reasons, Mitchell ran sprints after the workout, encouraging others to do the same. He introduced himself to nearly everyone in the gym. He remembers names if he's met you once or twice, and his engaging personality is as genuine as you'll find from a budding NBA star. He has a rare combination of self-awareness, coach-ability and determination.
So from a tactical standpoint, where specifically has Mitchell made these incredible improvements?
"There's been a lot of things we've looked at," Utah Jazz head coach Quinn Snyder said in the preseason. "His finishing, being able to finish off of one leg, a floater, playing pick-and-roll, passing the ball. A lot of situations that for any college player you're not in as much. I mean you're in them but you're not in them the amount of reps. With 82 games, the amount of practices and summers and the way he works. ... They're digging in. He loves to watch film."
How Mitchell evolved into a lead guard
While he was effective out of ball screens as a sophomore at Louisville -- pulling up from deep, splitting screens dynamically and occasionally finding an open teammate -- his ability to dissect defenses, play at different speeds and finish in a crowd were still very raw.
While he still has a lot of work to do, these are the three areas that have taken his ball screen game to the next level over the years:
1. Off-the-dribble shooting
The first step to Mitchell's evolution as a player has been his shooting stroke. As a freshman at Louisville, Mitchell shot 25 percent on 72 3-point attempts. He regularly released the ball on the way down and lacked a degree of consistency with his mechanics:
Louisville freshman guard Donovan Mitchell getting loose pic.twitter.com/cDt4WTXfaL
- Mike Schmitz (@Mike_Schmitz) February 8, 2016
Eventually he developed into a reliable spot shooter last season, which made him dangerous off the ball and in quick-hitting actions. Defenders over-played, and he used his long strides and quickness to punish them with backdoor cuts. His improved catch-and-shoot jumper is what vaulted him into the first round, especially when combined with his tremendous defensive versatility as a defender.
Cardinals G Donovan Mitchell provides all the Cardinals' offense early on with 14 straight points. He finishes the first half with 21 points.
He did have his ups and downs as a shooter, starting the season at just more than 31 percent from 3-point territory through 14 games and ending it shooting 21.6 percent in five March contests.
With that said, he proved much more capable both off the catch and the bounce than before, and despite the scattered results, step-backs like this suggested that he could become a dangerous on-the-move shooter in time:
Louisville's Donovan Mitchell crosses over the UNC defender and makes the step-back 3-pointer.
He still battled inconsistencies, like he does now, but the fact that he's knocking down 1.7 pull-ups per game at an above-average clip has certainly set the table for the rest of his ball-screen game to evolve. Although his handle is still a bit high and loose, he gets excellent lift. He forces the guard defender to go over screens because he can punish unders from 28 feet.
When the guard fights over and the big drops, he's comfortable rising up in midrange spots and knocking down contested pull-ups. If the guard gets through the screen and clings onto his hip, he can bounce out with rangy step-backs, maintaining near perfect balance in the process. He can also beat switches with hang-dribble pull-ups or stop-on-a-dime jumpers. His improved ball-screen pull-up game has played a big part in him scoring 25 points or more 13 times this season. Big defenders regularly have to worry about making a hand contest, which has allowed him to explode to the rim much more easily.
2. Court vision and pace
Feel for the game is the hardest thing for prospects to develop. You'll often hear scouts say, "he has no feel" or "he can't think the game" about a certain prospect, as if it's a definitive statement that can't be changed in the future. What has allowed Mitchell to progress is his willingness to learn and his dedication to film study. While he wasn't all that turnover-prone at Louisville, his low 2-point percentage was largely a product of shot selection. Too often he played at one speed and barged into help defenders without much of a plan.
He also settled for a lot of contested pull-ups, and his overall decision-making was one of the main reasons he went No. 13 rather than in the top-five.
Although still a scorer by trade, Mitchell is a much more astute pick-and-roll facilitator, generating 0.941 points per chance (scoring and facilitating) on 971 picks this season, according to Second Spectrum data. He's comfortable making basic pick-and-roll pocket passes going right or left:
While pocket passes are a must for any NBA guard, he's much more advanced with his floor game, playing with better pace, toying with the big man defender and picking the weakside defense apart with live-dribble feeds.
"I'm watching Ricky [Rubio] as much as possible," Mitchell said. "Just going out there and, one, learning the plays for starters because when I first started I didn't know what on earth I was doing. Now it's the little things, whether it's coming off the screen the right way, holding it for a second, knowing other positions when they're going to be in certain spots to hit them and make sure those passes are on target."
Mitchell didn't do a great job of using screens at Louisville, regularly rejecting into pull-ups or attacking before the screener arrived. He still has his blips, but he has really improved his ability to use screens at the point of attack.
He has been whipping the ball all over, something we rarely saw at Louisville. He uses both sides of the floor quite comfortably for a player just now getting his first extended, high-level taste at the point.
Because he's a threat to pull-up, big men also haven't been able to drop as deep in the paint. Some teams have opted to hard-hedge as well. Although his handle can get sloppy, he has had success splitting and finding shooters in space. Thanks to his herky-jerky style he was an excellent ball-screen splitter at Louisville as well, but with a spaced floor and a tad more shooting, Mitchell has had some excellent moments in these scenarios.
There's no question that he can still be a bit trigger happy. He's turning the ball over on more than 15 percent of his pick-and-roll possessions, and it shows that he's not a natural lead guard for stretches:
He ranks 20th in the NBA in usage, and he'll likely always be a score-first guard. But the level to which he's slowed the game down given his path has been remarkable. Even with his flaws in mind, he's made some passes at the NBA level that you don't often even see from prospects who grew up playing the position. If Mitchell's continues to evolve as a passer he can take his game to new heights.
3. Skill finishes
Attend a Jazz game and you'll see Mitchell on the floor early working on one-legged skill finishes and floaters. Although always an explosive athlete, he has struggled to play off of one leg, which is essential for guards at the NBA level given how quickly gaps close. A freak 2-foot leaper in space, he wasn't the most functional athlete at Louisville because he needed to load up to get off the ground.
Despite being a dunk-contest level athlete, Mitchell shot worse than 50 percent at the rim in half-court situations last season. He's not an explosive one-leg leaper and didn't have much of a floater in his arsenal, making only 11 total in 65 career games. As a junior he scored only 1.27 field goals at the rim in the half court per contest.
As a sophomore more than 70 percent of his field goal attempts were jump shots, in part due to his sometimes shaky decision-making and lack of confidence finishing.
So far this season Mitchell has made great strides as a finisher. His 2-point percentage is up, he's making floaters at a slightly higher clip and he's scoring five points at the rim in the half court per game, better than double the league average, according to Second Spectrum data.
Donovan Mitchell learning how to play off 1 leg. One-foot skill finishes are new. Was a 2-foot power dunker in HS. 20.75 PPG over his last 4 pic.twitter.com/HxFWCbTd4q
- Mike Schmitz (@Mike_Schmitz) November 4, 2017
Rather than relying so much on loading up off two feet, he's doing a great job of cutting angles and using his elite positional reach and big hands to extend to the rim and finish:
At Louisville everything was very power based -- downhill and straight-line with occasional violent spin moves. He has added more side-to-side wiggle with slight eurosteps like in the clip below. You can also see how well he has improved his ability to use screens in this clip, setting up the re-screen beautifully before dicing up DeMarcus Cousins:
He has been able to rely on his impressive extension as well as deception to regularly scoop the ball over the outstretched arms of some of the NBA's best rim protectors. He's still gaining experience at the rim, and he's no stranger to getting pinned off the glass, but he has made incredible strides.
More than 31 percent of his shots in the half court have come at the rim this season, as he has taken advantage of unique athleticism that allows him to play low to the ground while still maintaining his balance.
Future outlook
There's no question that Mitchell is a legitimate rookie of the year candidate, and he should have been selected well before No. 13, but what can Jazz fans expect from him in the future?
Mitchell has the makeup of a longtime All-Star and franchise cornerstone. Although he's still learning the position, the fact that he can operate as a primary ball-handler or play off the ball as a spot-shooter, cutter and straight-line driver puts him in rare company, especially when you consider the fact that he can check up to two to three positions on the other end.
Continuing to improve his handle and decision-making will be key, as he certainly still has his wild, turnover-prone moments. He'll also benefit from finding more ways to get to the free throw line, which should come with experience. Among the 39 players in the NBA who average at least 18 PPG, Mitchell ranks 35th in free-throw-attempt to shot-attempt ratio. If he's not going to live at the line, it's important for Mitchell to really become a consistent shooter, inching his way closer to the 40 percent mark from distance.
He also can improve his defensive discipline, and add more value as a rebounder, but Mitchell is a playmaker on that end with game-changing length and closing speed:
Although it was only summer league, I'll never forget Mitchell thoroughly wearing down Jayson Tatum in Salt Lake City, pushing him off of his spots and bothering him with constant ball pressure. He's not a favorite in ESPN's real plus-minus, but Mitchell is considerably better than league average against drives, according to Second Spectrum data, as well as defending pick-and-roll ball-handlers, isolations and post-ups.
Mitchell truly has the length, quickness, physicality and mentality to be one of the best defenders on the floor every night. While sub-25 ultra-skilled guards like Bradley Beal are smooth scorers who can facilitate out of ball screens, neither has the defensive potential or athletic pop of Mitchell.
He's a unique prospect given his capability to impact the game by scoring at all three levels and as a defender. If his playmaking continues to develop, he has a chance to be one of the premier guards in the NBA by the time he's 24 or 25.