Six minutes into his Boston debut, All-Star wing Gordon Hayward suffered a horrific injury to his left ankle when he came down awkwardly while going up for an alley-oop. While Hayward's health is the main concern, the Celtics must now figure out how to replace one of the centerpieces of their offseason makeover.
How can Boston fill in for Hayward? And what impact will his injury have on its 2017-18 record? Let's take a look.
Celtics' in-house options
Lottery pick Jayson Tatum, who started alongside Hayward on Tuesday because Boston coach Brad Stevens wanted to match up with the Cleveland Cavaliers' small starting lineup, will probably be his long-term replacement in the starting five. When forward Marcus Morris returns from sitting out to rest his sore right knee, that would give Stevens the option of going big with Aron Baynes at center and Al Horford at power forward or smaller with Horford in the middle alongside Morris.
Alternatively, Stevens could move Smart from his role as sixth man back to the starting lineup at shooting guard and slide Jaylen Brown from the 2 to the 3, bringing Tatum off the bench. Smart started 24 games last season when Avery Bradley was sidelined, though Stevens has preferred to use him as a reserve.
Either way, the Celtics' wing rotation is much younger, more inexperienced and thinner without Hayward. Smart, who's beginning his fourth season, is the veteran of the group. Brown has one year of experience. The other three Boston wings -- Tatum and second-round picks Abdel Nader (who spent last season in the G League) and Semi Ojeleye -- are all rookies.
In particular, the pressure appears to be on Brown and Tatum, drafted No. 3 overall the past two years. Brown was already set to start and serve as the Celtics' primary perimeter defender when Smart is on the bench, but now Boston will need him to supply more playmaking and shot creation -- things he wasn't asked to do as a rookie, when he largely played off the ball, though Brown averaged 19.0 points per 36 minutes in his one college season at California.
Shot creation has always been the strength of Tatum's game, but he'll need to create efficient shot attempts against superior NBA defenses. He struggled with LeBron James' athleticism in his debut. Both Tatum (a 34.2 percent shooter from the shorter college 3-point line) and Brown (who shot 34.1 percent as a rookie) will be called upon to supply outside shooting. Hayward's injury leaves All-Star point guard Kyrie Irving as the only Boston player projected to shoot better than league average from 3-point range.
Could Celtics add to the roster?
As ESPN's Bobby Marks noted in the aftermath of Hayward's injury, if Hayward is ruled out for the season Boston will be eligible to apply for a disabled player exception worth $8.4 million that can be used to sign a free agent to a one-year contract or acquire a player in the final year of his contract via trade or waivers.
While the disabled player exception is seldom used by teams, it could come in handy for the Celtics, who have an open roster spot and enough wiggle room to add a player using the exception without going into the luxury tax. Because Boston used cap space to sign Hayward, the team does not currently have any exceptions to pay players more than the minimum salary.
The most logical candidate for a trade looks like Will Barton of the Denver Nuggets, should the Nuggets decide they can get by with younger Malik Beasley and Juan Hernangomez as their backups on the wing. Barton is making $3.5 million in the final season of his contract and could become too expensive for Denver to retain next summer as an unrestricted free agent. Barton shot a career-best 37 percent from 3-point range last season and would be something of an upgrade as a floor spacer.
Other possible trade options who would fit into a Hayward disabled player exception include Vince Carter of the Sacramento Kings, Wayne Ellington of the Miami Heat and Tyreke Evans of the Memphis Grizzlies. Neither Carter nor Evans could be traded until Dec. 15 because they were signed as free agents this summer.
Projecting Celtics without Hayward
Even before Hayward went down, statistical projections suggested Boston might fall short of last season's 53-win total. The Celtics averaged 45.0 wins in simulations using ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) projections, and 47 wins using FiveThirtyEight's CARM-Elo projections. Of course, there was reason to believe given the talent on hand and Stevens' coaching that Boston could beat those projections. I pegged the Celtics for 51 wins in my subjective picks.
Naturally, Boston's RPM projection drops further without Hayward. Giving heavy minute increases to Tatum (27 MPG), Ojeleye (15 MPG) and Nader (8 MPG) and smaller ones to Baynes, Brown, Morris, Smart and backup point guard Terry Rozier costs the Celtics nearly seven wins. That leaves Boston below .500 on average in RPM simulations, though if we start with 51 wins as a baseline it would put the Celtics around a 44-win pace without Hayward.
At this point, what we don't know about Boston exceeds what we do know. The Celtics might be able to upgrade their roster midseason, or see their young wings develop more quickly than expected with the additional minutes and responsibility. Still, Boston's hopes of getting to and winning the NBA Finals took a huge hit when Hayward was injured.