How does the trade sending Carmelo Anthony from the New York Knicks to the Oklahoma City Thunder alter the Western Conference playoff race?
Before adding Anthony, the Thunder came in a surprising fifth in West projections using ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) despite dealing for Paul George earlier this summer. Anthony hasn't rated particularly well by RPM, but he does project better than departed Oklahoma City reserves Enes Kanter and Doug McDermott.
So much how does the Thunder's projection improve? And what can that tell us about the West playoff race? Let's take a look.
Projecting Oklahoma City's rotation
The first question we have to ask to project the Thunder is how Billy Donovan will set up his new rotation, which has changed dramatically with the arrival of Anthony and George via trade and Raymond Felton and Patrick Patterson via free agency.
Dealing Kanter does leave Oklahoma City without a backup to starting center Steven Adams. I've projected that rookie Dakari Johnson (eight minutes per game) and veteran Nick Collison (three minutes per game) will get some of Kanter's playing time, with the rest going to smaller lineups featuring either Patterson or Jerami Grant as a center.
Because Anthony figures to play regularly and perhaps even start at power forward -- a position he told reporters at Monday's media day he embraces playing for the Thunder -- Donovan probably will need to go small to find enough minutes for Patterson and Grant. Making those changes and giving Anthony 33 minutes per game, down a bit from his 2016-17 average of 34.3, yields the following rotation and RPM projections:
Projecting the Thunder
The most surprising aspect of the original RPM projection for the Thunder was their ranking 16th in projected defensive rating, having finished with the NBA's 10th-best defense in 2016-17. A second unit of Kanter (minus-1.1 projected defensive RPM, particularly poor for a center) and McDermott (minus-2.3) was a key factor in that weak projection.
So despite the fact that Anthony (minus-1.7) is no stopper himself, Oklahoma City's defensive projection improves to 14th in the league. With weaker offensive big men taking the minutes played by Kanter (plus-1.4 projected offensive RPM), the Thunder don't improve as much offensively from the swap as you might think, adding just a tenth of a point per 100 possessions to their fourth-ranked offensive projection.
The combination gives Oklahoma City the projected point differential of a team that would win between 50 and 51 games on average, an improvement of about one win over the Thunder's projection before the trade. (Note that neither of these projections factor in schedule, which probably will cost Oklahoma City about half a win in terms of point differential because the Western Conference is more competitive than the East.)
While that might not seem like much, recall that the recent debate over Anthony's finish in ESPN's #NBArank highlighted the fact that he's no longer as productive as he once was. Though it's certainly possible Anthony will be more effective in a smaller role with the Thunder, that's not the kind of adjustment RPM projections are capable of making.
(It's worth noting that my SCHOENE projection system does adjust players' efficiency based on changes in their usage rates, and SCHOENE actually projects Oklahoma City slightly worse, with a point differential that would typically translate in 49 to 50 wins.)
Projecting the Knicks
While we're here, a quick note on how New York's projection changes after the trade. Because adding Kanter gives the Knicks a crowd at center, where he'll compete for minutes with Willy Hernangomez, Joakim Noah and Kyle O'Quinn, New York is actually hurt more by the trade than it helps the Thunder.
Previously forecast for a point differential typical of a team with about 32 wins, the Knicks lose nearly two wins off that estimate, dropping to an expectation of about 30 wins. (Like the Oklahoma City projections, neither of these factor in schedule, which will work in favor of the Knicks.)
New York remains 12th in the East in terms of projected wins, but now just 0.2 expected wins ahead of the 13th-ranked Brooklyn Nets. Only the Sacramento Kings (27.6 projected wins) have a weaker projection in the West before considering schedule.
Projecting the top of the West standings
All right, let's return to the West to see how the Thunder now compare to the rest of the challengers to the defending champion Golden State Warriors.
The slight improvement from the Anthony trade is enough to push Oklahoma City ahead of the Minnesota Timberwolves for the fourth-best projection in the West. The Thunder are within striking distance of the San Antonio Spurs, whose projected net rating (offensive rating minus defensive rating) is just 0.5 points per 100 possessions better. But RPM still forecasts the Houston Rockets as the greatest threat to the Warriors, at least during the regular season, far ahead of any other West team save Golden State.
Of course, RPM projections are only a starting point. Besides the fact that injuries, midseason moves and unexpected performance will alter teams' outlooks, RPM is an imperfect estimate of player value that doesn't take on-court chemistry into account. So it's certainly possible that the Thunder could emerge as the West's second-best team. At least for the regular season, however, RPM suggests that adding Anthony might not be enough to bring Oklahoma City level with Houston.