There's little doubt that Manu Ginobili, who announced his retirement after 16 NBA seasons with the San Antonio Spurs and seven more playing professionally in Italy and his native Argentina, will be a Hall of Famer. Ginobili's résumé, including his international exploits, all but assures the honor.
So here's a more interesting question to ponder as we prepare for Ginobili's eventual induction to the Naismith Memorial Hall of Fame: Would he deserve to make the Hall of Fame solely on the merits of his NBA career?
Ginobili's impeccable international credentials
Having represented Argentina in four Olympics, winning a gold medal in 2004 and a bronze in 2008, Ginobili is one of the greatest Olympic basketball players of all time. He ranked fourth when I looked at this question in 2016.
Ginobili was also part of the first victory ever over a USA Basketball team with a roster featuring NBA players, that coming in the 2002 FIBA World Championship (since renamed the World Cup), when Argentina won silver. Oh, and he also won a EuroLeague title, was MVP of that year's EuroLeague Finals and has two Italian League MVPs to his credit.
All told, Ginobili's international accomplishments are comparable to those of fellow southpaw shooting guard Sarunas Marciulionis, who won an Olympic gold medal with the Soviet Union before NBA players were allowed to participate and two bronzes with Lithuania thereafter. Marciulionis was elected to the Hall of Fame in 2014 despite a modest NBA career.
There's no question that Ginobili was the superior NBA player, which is why I consider him a sure-fire Hall of Famer. But was he good enough to merit enshrinement had he never suited up internationally? Let's start with why that might not be the case.
The case against: few All-Star Games, counting stats
There are few better Hall of Fame indicators than All-Star appearances, which is why they're one of five factors in Basketball-Reference.com's Hall of Fame probability. Ginobili's pair of All-Star selections put him in the ninth percentile among players directly voted to the Hall of Fame, which is to say 91 percent of Hall of Famers have more.
Like Ginobili, all three players enshrined in the Hall of Fame since 1994 with fewer than two All-Stars appearances were international stars: Marciulionis, Drazen Petrovic and Arvydas Sabonis, none of whom ever played in an NBA All-Star Game. (Petrovic was an All-NBA Third Team pick, something Ginobili accomplished twice.) Remember, though, we're now considering only NBA accomplishments.
It's certainly possible to make the Hall of Fame with precisely two All-Star appearances, something done most recently by Dennis Rodman. But it's a long shot. (Joe Fulks, whose best years were before the existence of the All-Star Game, and Bill Walton are the other two such Hall of Famers.)
Career points scored is another key factor in Basketball-Reference's Hall of Fame probability, and here, too, Ginobili comes up short. His 14,043 points rank 22nd among players active during the 2017-18 season, behind players with no chance at the Hall of Fame, such as Jamal Crawford (18,906), Jason Terry (18,881), Richard Jefferson (14,904), Rudy Gay (14,515), and Al Jefferson (14,343).
Unlike, say, Rodman (6,683 career points), Ginobili doesn't stand out in any other statistical category. He had fewer career assists (4,001) than Kirk Hinrich (4,245) and fewer career rebounds (3,697) than Sam Mitchell (3,711). Ginobili ranked in the top 10 among active players in just one career total statistic: steals (1,349, 10th, right behind Ellis).
Add it up, and Basketball-Reference's formula, which considers only NBA performance, gives Ginobili just a 20 percent chance of making the Hall of Fame, less than half that of Rajon Rondo (41 percent).
The case for: superior advanced stats, playoff impact
Fortunately, this being 2018, we can look beyond Ginobili's box-score stats to see how he helped the Spurs win. Advanced statistics are much more favorable to Ginobili's case. He ranked 11th among active players in 2017-18 in Basketball-Reference's win shares (106.4). Half of the 18 eligible players with between 100 and 110 win shares have been elected to the Hall of Fame.
Ginobili suffers in the Basketball-Reference Hall of Fame predictor because it considers only a player's peak in terms of win shares, and his best season (11.1 win shares in 2007-08) was good but not great. Ginobili was consistently very good, however, posting at least 8.8 win shares seven times.
Then there's the matter of the postseason. Ginobili's 218 career playoff games rank eighth all time, and he was far more than a bystander during San Antonio's four championship runs after he arrived in 2002. Amazingly, Ginobili ranks 20th in NBA history in playoff win shares (20.8). Everyone ahead of him has been selected for the Hall of Fame.
Certainly, Ginobili had plenty of opportunities to accumulate playoff value. Still, that alone does not guarantee those results; teammate Tony Parker has played in more postseason games but ranks just 54th with 13.6 career playoff win shares.
The verdict: Ginobili belongs in NBA-only Hall of Fame
Through the prism of my championships added metric, which uses win shares and awards to estimate how much a player helped his team's chances of winning a title, Ginobili is close to a lock based solely on his NBA career.
Ginobili ranks 40th in playoff championships added, and just one eligible player ahead of him in this category, Horace Grant, has not been selected for the Hall of Fame. (Chauncey Billups, who is now eligible, appears to be a borderline case.) Ginobili also ranks in the top 100 in regular-season championships added, so while he's a distant 226th in championships added based on awards, putting him behind Antoine Walker, his total score puts him 66th in NBA history. Again, Grant is the only eligible player ahead of him not in the Hall of Fame.
I think subjective factors only strengthen Ginobili's case. Despite somehow winning the Sixth Man of the Year Award only once, he'll be remembered as one of the great reserves in NBA history, a star who was willing to sacrifice starts and per-game stats for the good of the team. Ginobili also had an important influence on how the game is played, for better (in the case of the Eurostep) or worse (his attempts to bait referees into calls, a practice that has become widespread).
So if the NBA ever starts its own Hall of Fame, save room for Ginobili. He belongs on the strength of his time in San Antonio.