What do our experts expect from San Antonio-Memphis? What do the Grizzlies have to do to upset the Spurs?
The 5-on-5 crew forecasts the series.
1. What is the most important thing to watch in this series for San Antonio?
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: How big an advantage the Spurs have with their second unit on the court. Such dominance has been key to San Antonio's success for some time now, and the Spurs outscored the Grizzlies by at least 10 points per 100 possessions with four different reserves (Kyle Anderson, Manu Ginobili, David Lee and Patty Mills) during the regular-season series according to NBA.com/Stats.
Michael C. Wright, ESPN.com: Can Tony Parker step up his game and get it done? Parker will struggle somewhat trying to guard Mike Conley, and it wouldn't be a surprise if San Antonio on occasion used Kawhi Leonard to slow him down. But on the offense, for the Spurs to be at their best it's critical Parker plays up to his capability, and assumes his role of facilitator and aggressive inside scorer when needed, in addition to his primary role of getting Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge involved early.
Kevin Arnovitz, ESPN.com: That the ball continues to move. Historically, this has rarely been a problem for San Antonio, who pretty much fashioned half the offenses the league has adopted in the last five years. Yet they've become a more conventional offensive team since the arrival of LaMarcus Aldridge and rely on more traditional shot creation (e.g. throw it into the post, let the big guy work).
The Spurs have always thrived on forcing defenses to make decisions, rather than simply overpowering them. They're a good bet over the Grizzlies in any event, but maintaining offensive rhythm will help them as they move through the bracket.
Tim MacMahon, ESPN.com: Can the Spurs get some rhythm going offensively? San Antonio averaged only 90.5 points in four games against the Grizzlies while splitting the season series. That average is skewed, however, by a 74-point dud in a Feb. 6 loss in which Kawhi Leonard did not play.
Leonard has developed into a bonafide go-to guy, averaging 25.5 points per game and often initiating the offense. He probably won't have to deal with tenacious defender Tony Allen, who is likely sidelined the whole series by a calf injury.
Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: I think, at some point in the playoffs, the Spurs will have to make a switch from Tony Parker to Patty Mills as their primary point guard, and I'd try to do it sooner rather than later. The Spurs have been better with Mills on the court for several years now, as he has developed into one of the league's best 3-point shooters and brings considerably more energy on defense.
2. What is the most important thing to watch in this series for Memphis?
Pelton: The Grizzlies' 3-point shooting. Memphis made 40.7 percent of its 3s in wins and 29.6 percent in losses. When the Grizzlies make 3s, their defense is good enough that they're hard to beat. When those shots miss, Memphis has a tough time finding enough scoring to compensate.
Arnovitz: The ability to find shots without having to turn the earth on its axis. When things bog down for the Grizzlies, they have to work so incredibly hard to find good looks. Against the Spurs' top-ranked defense, that's a recipe for 10 days of rigor mortis.
Finding driving lanes for Conley has been made easier by lifting Gasol, who is now a legitimate threat from distance, but San Antonio has a way of erecting road blocks where offenses least like to see them. The Grizzlies will need to get into their stuff quickly, efficiently and with more motion than they're accustomed to.
Wright: How the Grizzlies guard Kawhi Leonard. Memphis has been fairly successful during the regular season using Tony Allen as the main Leonard stopper, but Allen is unlikely to play in this series due to injury. Who else do the Grizzlies have on the roster capable of taking Leonard?
Shutting down Leonard goes a long way toward stopping San Antonio because the truth is the rest of the Spurs -- LaMarcus Aldridge, included -- struggle to score when Leonard isn't producing.
MacMahon: Can Marc Gasol morph back into midseason form? The All-Star big man's production has dipped significantly since March 1, as Gasol is averaging 15.6 points on 42.0 percent shooting in that span. Not coincidentally, the Grizzlies stumbled toward the finish line of the regular season, winning only seven of their last 21 games.
Memphis needs the January version of Gasol (23.6 ppg, 52.1 FG) to have any hope of pulling off a huge upset.
Engelmann: Can someone fill the huge hole they have at the wing positions with Tony Allen and Chandler Parsons out? I like Vince Carter, but I'm not sure if I want him chasing Danny Green or Kawhi Leonard 30 minutes a night at age 40.
3. Fact or Fiction: The Spurs are the second-best team in the NBA.
Pelton: I started to answer fact, then I started to answer fiction, which is probably a good indication that we don't really know. Obviously the Spurs were far superior to the Cavaliers (and the Houston Rockets) over the course of the season, but their strengths are muted in the playoffs while Cleveland's weaknesses are muted. So I'm not sure who's the better playoff team.
Arnovitz: Fact, by virtue of record and experience. Cleveland has a better chance to make the Finals than San Antonio, not because it's a superior team, but by geographical chance. The Spurs are the NBA's best defensive squad, have one of its most efficient shot makers and excel at problem-solving -- which is what 7-game playoff series are.
MacMahon: Fact. The records tell you that. The head-to-head results tell you that, with the Spurs going 2-0 against the defending champion Cavaliers, including a blowout last month.
Cleveland has more star power than the Spurs, but San Antonio has the NBA's best coach and best defense, allowing only 100.9 points per 100 possessions, with the interior duo of Dewayne Dedmon and LaMarcus Aldridge as dominant on that end as two-time Defensive Player of the Year Leonard.
Engelmann: Fact, and it's not even close. The Spurs won six more games than the Rockets -- the third-best team -- and also had a better point differential. In many other NBA seasons, their 61 wins would have resulted in the top seed in the whole NBA.
Wright: Spurs coach Gregg Popovich always says you are what your record says. So by that measure, yeah, the Spurs are the second-best team in the NBA.
But San Antonio needs to fix some things before I can deem it a worthy contender for the title. The Spurs experienced the biggest drop in offensive rating (3.8 points per 100 possessions) after the All-Star break. They get stuck in the mud offensively too often. They need consistent scoring outside Leonard, and they're hoping Aldridge steps it up.
4. If the Grizzlies make this series competitive, how did it happen?
Pelton: They keep the games close and low-scoring, as they did during the regular-season series, and win a few games decided in the final minute. Unfortunately for them, that part of the equation figures to become more challenging without Tony Allen around to defend Kawhi Leonard.
Arnovitz: They manhandled Aldridge and utilized Gasol in the high post to make plays. They'll also need a couple of games of hot shooting from beyond the arc from Conley and Troy Daniels, with a little splash of well-aged Vince Carter juice.
Wright: Not only did they shut down Leonard, they neutralized San Antonio's midrange game as a whole. The Spurs attempted a league-high 29.5 percent of their shots during the regular season from midrange, the area in which Aldridge and Leonard rank No. 6 and No. 12 in attempts.
MacMahon: "All heart. Grit. Grind," as Allen famously said in a postgame interview following a 2011 regular-season win, instantly creating a slogan and identity for a franchise that has now since made seven straight playoff appearances. Too bad Allen probably won't have a chance to make his presence felt in this season. Memphis has to muck it up to make it competitive.
Engelmann: By playing a snail-like pace and by hitting their 3s. Given that the Grizzlies were the third-slowest team in the regular season and the Spurs were fourth, a very slow pace seems inevitable -- and that's good for Memphis! And they have several players that hit 3s at a rate of 38 percent or better. They just need to bomb them and hope for the best.
5. Who wins the series, and in how many games?
Pelton: Spurs in 5. That sounds short, given how close the teams have played this season, but it's the most likely outcome for two teams this mismatched in terms of overall ability.
Arnovitz: Spurs in 5. With Tony Allen sidelined, and limited firepower on the wing, the Grizzlies have too many shortcomings to overcome a team that simply manages games to their advantage.
Wright: Spurs in 5. Don't count on the 4-0 sweep we saw last season, because Memphis -- despite the loss of Allen -- comes into this game fairly healthy, hungry and confident. Last year, the Grizzlies were the walking wounded. This will be a hard-fought series with two of the league's better defenses.
MacMahon: Spurs in 5. The question isn't why San Antonio wins this series. It's why the Grizzlies win a game. Frankly, I'm not picking another San Antonio sweep over Memphis out of respect for the fight in the Grizzlies, who have managed to give the West's best teams as much trouble as anyone this season.
Engelmann: Spurs in 5. San Antonio is one of the best No. 2 seeds of all time, while the Grizzlies are somewhat depleted. I would not be surprised if we saw several blowouts and saw no Spurs player average more than 30 minutes per game.