How can the Sixers build a contender around Embiid?

Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton are back with their series on NBA prospects, rookies and sophomores -- this time debating Joel Embiid's ceiling and the future for the Philadelphia 76ers.

How much better can Embiid get? Should the Sixers trade Jahlil Okafor or Nerlens Noel by the offseason? And which top prospects in the 2017 draft would be best for Philly?

How high is Embiid's ceiling?

Chad Ford: The 76ers are on a remarkable, improbable run right now. They've won 10 of their last 13 games. Embiid, who missed two years with foot injuries, isn't just a runaway choice for Rookie of the Year -- he had a real case to be an All-Star reserve. And the 76ers are doing all of this without No. 1 pick Ben Simmons, who is expected to return sometime after the All-Star Game in February.

Former GM Sam Hinkie's "process" is no longer a punchline.

While I think most of us thought the Sixers were going to turn things around eventually, with enough high-level lottery prospects, I certainly didn't except to see this sort of success so soon.

Kevin, let's take a look at the state of the process for the Sixers right now. They have four lottery picks playing and a fifth waiting in the wings.

Embiid is the cornerstone of the rebuild. He has been a dominant offensive and defensive player for them despite having missed the last two seasons. How good is Embiid? And how good do you think he can be?

Kevin Pelton: When we last checked in on Embiid in November, he was putting up crazy numbers on a per-minute basis while Philadelphia was continuing to struggle. His numbers remain every bit as unprecedented for a 22-year-old rookie. As ESPN colleague Tom Haberstroh has pointed out via Basketball-Reference.com, the only players who have matched what Embiid is doing on a per-minute basis are superstar centers in their prime.

What's changed is how Embiid is helping the 76ers win, particularly at the defensive end of the court. He has made the paint a no-fly zone for opponents, allowing them to make a league-low 39.6 percent of their shots within 5 feet, according to SportVU tracking on NBA.com/Stats.

In January, that percentage is down to an unthinkable (and surely unsustainable) 27.8 percent. Marcus Smart has had a better chance of hitting a 3-pointer this season (29.6 percent) than opponents have had of making a shot inside 5 feet with Embiid as the primary defender in January.

Led by Embiid, Philadelphia has allowed a league-low 99.9 points per 100 possessions this month, the biggest reason the Sixers have gone 9-3. I ended up selecting other candidates who have played more minutes, but when he has been on the court, there's little question Embiid has played at an All-Star level.

So I guess I'll pass back the second half of your question: How much better can Embiid get, given how well he's playing now?

Ford: Well, if he's putting up numbers usually reserved for All-Star centers in their prime, I'm not sure we should expect a much higher ceiling. That's an unusual thing to say about rookies. They almost always get better -- especially on defense.

But while Embiid missed two years of playing basketball games, he didn't miss two years of basketball. He went through a lot of coaching and drills. I think it sunk in. If he's going to get much better than he already is, he'll win multiple MVP awards and be in the Hall of Fame. That's how high his ceiling is already.

How does the rest of the roster look?

Ford: I think the next question concerns the other lottery picks the Sixers have on their roster. Nerlens Noel, Jahlil Okafor and Dario Saric all have immense talent, but none of them has shown the upside that Embiid has early on. I don't think there's any way the Sixers will keep all of them.

They seem to be experimenting with both Noel and Okafor (or maybe showcasing them). I'm not sure either is an ideal fit next to Embiid. Saric has been very solid for a rookie, and I think he'll only get better. The only issue for me with him is how he duplicates a lot of what Simmons will do. And Simmons is better.

Kevin, do you think the Sixers should keep Noel, Okafor and/or Saric? Are any of them real building blocks for the future?

Pelton: No, I don't see building blocks. Saric's rookie season has been a bit of a disappointment to me. While he's developed into an adequate 3-point threat (34.1 percent), Saric is making less than 40 percent of his 2s and hasn't really played much of a playmaking role. He's averaging 2.4 assists per 36 minutes, same as starting power forward Ersan Ilyasova. So at this point, he's more of Ilyasova light than Simmons light.

On the plus side, Saric still has three years left on his rookie contract, and European players do tend to get more comfortable in Year 2, above and beyond the normal aging curve. So I see no reason to move him.

Philadelphia's run has also coincided with Noel replacing Okafor in the rotation. According to NBA.com/Stats, the 76ers have been outscored by 9.7 points per 100 possessions with Noel on the floor, as compared to a minus-14.1 net rating with Okafor. They've been more competitive with fourth center Richaun Holmes on the court (minus-7.4 net rating).

At this point, it's hard to pass off how poorly Philadelphia has played with Okafor as a fluke. He's not helping the Sixers win games. Maybe that will change somewhere else, but I would probably keep Noel as a backup to Embiid (and, crucially, insurance policy for his foot) while getting whatever I could for Okafor. I just don't see his value rebounding. Do you have any more hope?

Ford: I do, especially for Noel. I think a lack of maturity in his approach to the game has stifled his progress somewhat. But I see tools there that I think could help in the long run.

And while Embiid has been amazing, I think we have to be cognizant of the fact that he has had foot problems, and there's no guarantee that he stays this healthy. If the Sixers dump both Noel and Okafor and then Embiid goes down, it would be a disaster.

I have less hope for Okafor, at least in Philly. I think he's a terrible fit for that team, and I think the only way he bounces back is to move to a team that potentially could use him the same way the Thunder use Enes Kanter -- an all-offense, no-defense big man.

And while I'm a little less down on Saric than you are, I think Simmons plays his position. When Simmons is healthy, Saric's role won't be significant enough to consider him a building block.

Which leads me to Simmons. Kevin, how do you think the return of Simmons will affect the Sixers? As our editor Royce Webb points out, if the 76ers can go 23-15 the rest of the way, they hit 40 wins and could possible make the playoffs.

Do you see Simmons being able to help the Sixers maintain their momentum when he returns in February? Or do you think Philadelphia should keep him off the court the rest of the year and focus on a high draft position for one more season?

Pelton: As much as I like Simmons' potential, I'm not sure he'll help that much in the short term. Look around at this year's rookies: Besides Malcolm Brogdon, a five-year player at Virginia who's not really comparable to Simmons, nobody who played in college last year is doing much to help their team win. And while those players aren't as talented as Simmons, he has missed four months and counting. I doubt he'll be a better player right now than Ilyasova or Robert Covington, and integrating him into the Philadelphia offense will take some time.

The latter factor is a good reason to bring Simmons back now, presuming he's fully healthy. The 76ers would rather go through Simmons' growing pains now than next year, when the playoffs are a far more realistic target. If that helps the draft pick, all the better -- even though Philadelphia can take advantage of a pick swap with the Sacramento Kings if the Kings land a top-10 pick, which means there's less downside to winning now.

Ultimately, though, I'm not convinced the Sixers will have to worry about picking outside the lottery. They've won a series of close games during January, which is not likely to continue. At best, Philadelphia is probably about a .500 team right now -- but since they are currently 10 games below .500, that's not good enough to mount a playoff run.

2017 draft strategy

Pelton: So let's say the 76ers have at least one lottery pick and maybe a second courtesy the Lakers (who will send their pick to Philadelphia if it lands outside the top three). What should the Sixers be targeting in the draft?

Ford: Great question. This is such a strong draft that it still seems plausible that the Sixers could draft another All-Star-caliber player. If we use our ESPN Basketball Power Index playoff odds as a guide, and assume the lottery follows teams' projected records, Philadelphia would select fourth. The Sixers have another potential lottery pick from the Lakers. Currently, our BPI odds have the Lakers projected with the third-worst record in the league. BPI projects there's a 47.9 percent chance they land in the top three. That makes it better than 50-50 the 76ers get a second pick.

Given the holes in their backcourt and the strength of this year's guard class, I think that's where they'll focus. So if the Sixers pick fourth, I could see them either grabbing a shooter like Kentucky's Malik Monk or another playmaker like Dennis Smith Jr. Both players should be available in that range, and both would be great fits.

In a dream scenario, the Sixers get the No. 1 pick and the No. 4 pick from the Lakers. I'd take Washington's Markelle Fultz and Monk. Both players can shoot, play off the ball and add great athleticism to their backcourt. A starting five of Fultz, Monk, Simmons, Noel and Embiid would have Finals potential in a few years.

But the emphasis is on a few years. The process is going to continue to take a while.

Kevin, who would you select for Philadelphia?

Pelton: I agree that Monk makes a lot of sense if the Sixers pick outside the top two. If Simmons will indeed run the offense as the de facto point guard, a shooter like Monk is a greater need than a playmaker.

Because of the time he'd have to play off the ball, Dennis Smith might be a tough fit in Philadelphia. But Fultz and UCLA's Lonzo Ball have shown enough shooting chops that I think they could play with Philadelphia's core players.