The NBA trade deadline is just a month away, and the best way for teams to maximize the return on their deals is to use a familiar axiom: Buy low.
Instead of searching out the hot names, teams should be looking for players who are currently performing below established norms (meaning they'll benefit from regression to the mean) or those who are out of favor with their current teams.
Let's take a look at six players I'd be targeting if I were running an NBA front office.
Kenneth Faried
Denver Nuggets
Power Forward
Quietly, Faried's advanced statistics have never changed all that much from his first few seasons in the league, when he was celebrated as a draft steal and started on a 57-win Denver team at age 23. He's still among the NBA's top offensive rebounders (he ranks fourth in offensive rebound rate among players who have seen 500 minutes of action) and a high-percentage finisher.
Because the league has changed to emphasize floor spacing from the power forward position, Faried isn't a fit for every team. Still, he could work well alongside a less athletic center with 3-point range, like Brook Lopez or Myles Turner.
Of course, that description could also apply to Nuggets center Nikola Jokic, so perhaps Denver is content to leave Faried in the starting lineup after he regained his role following a series of DNP-CDs earlier this month. If that changes or Faried is required to match salary in a trade with a team that doesn't have a need for him, I'd be quick to inquire.
Nikola Mirotic
Chicago Bulls
Power Forward
The Chicago Sun-Times reported Sunday that the Bulls are shopping Mirotic, who can be a restricted free agent at season's end and is due to increase his $5.8 million salary, along with point guard Rajon Rondo. If I were a team in need of floor spacing at power forward, I'd be willing to pay Mirotic.
Yes, it's troubling that Mirotic's 3-point percentage is south of 32 percent for the second time in three NBA seasons. But no stat is more likely to fluctuate and give a false impression of a player's value than 3-point percentage, with Mirotic's 2015-16 as an excellent example. After shooting 33.1 percent from downtown through December, Mirotic made 43.3 percent of his 3s the rest of the season.
Even at middling percentages, Mirotic's frequent 3-point attempts (7.8 per 36 minutes) keep defenses honest, so Chicago's offensive rating is 2.2 points better per 100 possessions with Mirotic on the court, according to NBA.com/Stats. Both ESPN's real plus-minus and my wins above replacement player metric suggest Mirotic has been about a league-average player this season without the benefit of accurate shooting. So imagine how valuable he might be if his shots start going in more consistently.
Jared Dudley
Phoenix Suns
Power Forward
Signed to provide veteran leadership and serve as a bridge at power forward to 2016 lottery picks Dragan Bender and Marquese Chriss, Dudley moved aside to accommodate the youngsters much earlier than expected. After starting the season's first seven games, Dudley has played just five total minutes in all of January. (He has been sidelined the past week due to dizziness.)
Dudley's performance hardly merited the benching. He was shooting 44.0 percent from 3-point range and a career-high 56.0 percent beyond the arc. As recently as last season, Dudley was an effective part-time starter for the Washington Wizards. His three-year, $30 million contract is reasonable for a reserve. (The Wizards would surely love Dudley back, but don't have any matching contracts that would interest the Suns.)
Tim Frazier
New Orleans Pelicans
Point Guard
Hey, remember Frazier? He started the season's first 20 games for the Pelicans and had seven double-doubles. Yet when Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans returned, Frazier found himself out of New Orleans' rotation.
While Holiday and Evans remain injury risks, the Pelicans have enough depth in the backcourt that they might be able to spare Frazier, and he could certainly help several contenders as a backup point guard -- a role more appropriate for him than starting, where he was stretched despite the impressive box-score stats.
The Atlanta Hawks and Washington Wizards, who have both been searching for consistency behind their starting point guards, would make sense as possible destinations.
Richaun Holmes
Philadelphia 76ers
Center
All the discussion about whether the 76ers will trade either Nerlens Noel or Jahlil Okafor obscures the fact that they have a fourth young center on their roster: Holmes, who has played five total minutes since Dec. 14. (He missed five games during that span with a concussion but is active now.)
Holmes has an intriguing skill set based primarily on his impressive leaping ability. He blocks shots at an above-average rate (4.4 percent of opponents' 2-point attempts during his career) for a center (average is 3.1 percent for the position) and has made 57.6 percent of his 2-point attempts. Holmes even flashes occasional 3-point range, having made seven triples in 20 tries this season after going 8-of-44 as a rookie.
The one question mark with Holmes is whether he can control the defensive glass. As a rookie, his defensive rebound percentage (11.7 percent) was below average for a small forward, let alone a big man. Holmes has nearly doubled that to 19.0 percent in limited playing time this season. With a team-friendly contract that is fully non-guaranteed for the minimum the next two years, Holmes is an easy fit for any team looking to add a center project.
Tyus Jones
Minnesota Timberwolves
Point Guard
Lost in the Ricky Rubio trade rumors and discussion of Kris Dunn as the Timberwolves' point guard of the future is the fact that Minnesota has a point guard on the roster who's younger than Dunn. Moreover, the 20-year-old Jones has been more effective than Dunn in his limited action, posting a 3.71-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio and shooting 13-of-28 from 3-point range.
At a slight 6-foot-2, Jones' defensive limitations might prevent him from developing into a starter. Nonetheless, his heady decision-making at the point and ability to shoot the 3 mean he could become an ideal backup. Timberwolves management has no ties to Jones, who was drafted by the previous regime, so despite the fact that he's a Minnesota native he might be available for a reasonable price.