How good are the Grizzlies? What moves should they make?
Our NBA Insiders preview Memphis' 2016-17 season.
1. What is the Grizzlies' primary cause for optimism?
Tim MacMahon, ESPN.com: The core that carried the franchise to six straight playoff appearances is intact, and the Grizzlies added the highest-profile free-agent acquisition in franchise history in Chandler Parsons. If healthy, and granted that's a big if, Parsons is a perfect fit as the shooter and playmaker Memphis has long lacked to complement Mike Conley and Marc Gasol.
Justin Verrier, ESPN.com: Their first major free-agent signing (non-Darko division). Though he has yet to actually play for Memphis, Parsons should provide the shooting and playmaking on the wing that the Grizzlies have sorely needed throughout the grit 'n' grind regime. Such a player could theoretically extend the defense and thus the lifespan of their well-worn core.
Amin Elhassan, ESPN Insider: They have a few, and it starts with a veteran roster that has been extremely competitive in the West when healthy.
The main offseason goal of bringing back Conley -- one of the most underrated PGs in the game -- was a success. The addition of Parsons gives them the shooting threat they've lacked on the wing for years, as well as an additional playmaker on the perimeter. New head coach David Fizdale is going to attempt to modernize the offense to include more 3-point shooting and floor spacing.
Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: Some say their core can't miss more games this season than they did last, when the Grizzlies had to dress 28 different players. Given that newly signed Parsons had microfracture surgery not too long ago, and that the injury bug was both serious and widespread, people should probably curb their optimism, though.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: A healthy Parsons would be the best offensive wing player Memphis has had in the grit 'n' grind era. Add in new coach Fizdale's willingness to consider tweaking a formula that has been successful but has seen better days and the Grizzlies have a chance to be better offensively with their starting five on the court.
2. What is the Grizzlies' primary cause for concern?
MacMahon: How could it be anything but health? All three of their max players are coming off season-ending injuries, and Parsons still hasn't been cleared to play after spring knee surgery. Tony Allen sat out the preseason to nurse a sore right knee. Brandan Wright is dealing with a bad ankle. The Grizzlies need better luck after setting an NBA record by using 28 players last season -- leading to a total revamping of the medical and training staffs -- but they're entering the season with a lot of injury concerns.
Elhassan: Let's be frank -- the Grizzlies are a team whose main pieces are all aging and/or have injury concerns, including their prized free agent acquisition. There still isn't quite enough shooting on this team (even with Gasol and Zach Randolph venturing behind the line during the preseason), and this is also a team that resisted style change in the past.
But, ultimately, what is the future here? I love Gasol and Randolph, but if we're being honest we can't fool ourselves into believing they can even maintain status quo over the next three years.
Pelton: A troubling combination of injury risk and an unproven bench. The Grizzlies currently on the roster played 12,993 minutes last season, far and away the league's lowest total. If Conley goes down for an extended stretch, Memphis will be forced to start a rookie at point guard. It's unclear the Grizzlies have enough depth on the wing even when fully healthy.
Verrier: Injuries. While it's near-impossible to reach the depths of last season's record-setting revolving door, the Grizzlies' recent struggles to bolster their long-range game in free agency and the draft have created a bench heavy on D-League dice rolls and low-profile draftees. The preseason absences of Parsons and Allen have made a starting lineup featuring James Ennis and Troy Daniels a far-too-real possibility.
Engelmann: Long term, they should be concerned about their future draft pick situation. They could end up in similar situations as Brooklyn and Miami, as Memphis owes two potentially unprotected future first rounders (to Denver and Boston). In a worst-case scenario -- though unlikely, of course -- Memphis wins the lottery in 2019 and 2021 and has to give up the pick both times.
3. What trade would make the most sense for the Grizzlies?
MacMahon: The saying is you can never get enough shooting in the NBA, and the Grizzlies have surely never come close. They addressed that need by adding Parsons (41.4 percent from 3-point range last season) and Daniels (48.4 percent). But the Grizzlies could definitely use another wing shooter, especially if Parsons gets a significant amount of playing time at power forward, which is arguably his best position.
Elhassan: The Grizzlies missed the boat on dumping Allen when they had the chance. At this point, they might as well keep him around, unless he becomes a locker room issue due to his reduced role (or unless they can fool Doc Rivers into giving up more assets for former players of his). Randolph has one year left on his deal and might be able to return some value in terms of future assets.
Engelmann: The roster screams "rebuild" to me, but that was probably out the window once they shelled out a combined $247 million to Conley and Parsons, and given that Memphis owes two future firsts. Still, I'd try to call up the Celtics, offering Conley and Gasol for good young players and the Nets' picks Boston holds the rights to.
Verrier: One that brings more shooting, forever and always. The Grizzlies bombed away from 3 at a top-10 rate in the preseason, but a power forward with more range than current stretch-4-in-progress JaMychal Green would officially transition the Grizz into the grit 'n' go era. Or they could go the other way and embrace the future by restocking their draft coffers.
Pelton: Swapping Vince Carter's partially guaranteed deal (for $2 million) to a team looking to cut salary could be a way for Memphis to add additional depth on the perimeter, particularly since taking on a deal beyond this season isn't a huge issue for the capped-out Grizzlies.
4. Fact or Fiction: The Grizzlies will make the playoffs.
Pelton: Fiction. The Grizzlies have proved me wrong before, and might do so again this season, particularly if they stay healthier than anticipated. But there are too many questions about how the next six months will play out for me to pencil Memphis into one of the eight playoff spots, particularly with so many teams that could make it in the West.
Verrier: Fact. Memphis is counting on a center coming off foot surgery, a point guard coming off an Achilles injury, a small forward who has missed 37 games the past two seasons, a 34-year-old shooting guard and a 35-year-old power forward. If healthy, the Grizzlies have far more established talent than the riff-raff expected to compete for the West's final playoff spots.
Elhassan: Fact. As I said earlier, this team is very competitive in the West at full strength. On top of having a tough front line, they are led by a master floor general and are extremely experienced across the board. I don't have much faith in their ability to move deep in the playoffs once they get there, though.
Engelmann: Fiction. Yes, it's mostly the same core that went up 2-1 on the Warriors in the 2015 Western Conference semis. But that team featured a much-needed Courtney Lee and his 40 percent 3-point shooting. Now, everyone's a year older -- Randolph and Allen are 35 and 34 years old, respectively -- and the new starter at PF, Green, had a Real Plus-Minus of about -2.0 last season
MacMahon: Fact. It's hard to bet against the Grizzlies extending their playoff streak -- the third-longest active run in the league -- after they managed to hang on to a spot without Conley and Gasol and several others down the stretch last season.
5. Fact or Fiction: The Grizzlies have the potential to make the West semifinals.
Elhassan: Fact, only because we are talking about potential rather than likelihood. As we saw last year in the Clippers-Blazers series, a well-timed injury can send an upstart team from being on the way to the slaughterhouse to suddenly considering themselves a West power in the making. In that sense, of course Memphis has the potential to win a playoff series, much like I have the potential to star in an upcoming Star Wars movie. I wouldn't bet on either.
MacMahon: Why not? We know the Warriors, Spurs and Clippers are the West's best teams. The Grizzlies are part of a pack of teams fighting for the fourth seed and home-court advantage in the first round. Memphis has escaped the first round every other year over the past six seasons, so you could say the Grizzlies are due to get to the West semis again.
Verrier: Faction. Potential? Sure. Likely? Not so much. Even if healthy, the Grizzlies' thin bench foretells modest success amid the regular-season grind, which means a road series in a West starkly divided between the haves and have-somes. Memphis, as currently constructed, is a top-heavy team that doesn't quite meet the two-superstar minimum.
Engelmann: Fiction. I think it's unlikely they'll make the playoffs. If they do, there's a good chance they'll meet the top-seeded Warriors in the first round, where Memphis has a less than 5 percent chance of advancing. We remember 2011, when the eighth-seeded Grizzlies ousted the first-seeded Spurs in the first round, but that was a long time ago.
Pelton: Fact. This might seem contradictory to the previous answer, but remember, we're talking potential. If Memphis is healthy and having Gasol and Randolph shooting 3s opens the floor for Conley and Parsons, it's certainly reasonable for the Grizzlies to emerge as one of the four best teams in the West.