How will Reggie Jackson, Andre Drummond and the Detroit Pistons do in 2016-17?
Here are our player scouting reports and analysis.
Projected starters
Reggie Jackson
Position: Guard
Experience: 5 years
Age: 26
Scouting report
+ Solid offensive point guard doesn't have a particular outstanding skill
+ Found nice pick-and-roll chemistry with Andre Drummond
+ Huge wingspan but defensive effort disappoints
Analysis
In his first full year as a starter in Detroit, Jackson made good on the five-year, $80 million contract bestowed by Stan Van Gundy, garnering some fringe All-Star consideration.
On offense, Jackson isn't elite at any particular aspect but does not have any major overall weaknesses either. In particular, he excelled running the pick-and-roll with Drummond, although that combination's dependence on one another exacerbated the Pistons' bench problems since they played together as much as possible. Jackson shot a below-average percentage within 10 feet, but managed to take nearly 50 percent of his shots in the paint. And those missed paint shots still drew the defense, freeing the offensive glass for Drummond.
Jackson has a reputation as a non-shooter, but improved to 35.1 percent on 3s. More than half of his 4.2 3-point attempts per game were off the dribble, and he drained a solid 34.8 percent. Nevertheless, teams often went under the screen on Jackson's pick-and-rolls to prevent him from getting into the paint. Because he shoots more of a set shot, Jackson is less effective rising up for 2-point jumpers, preferring floaters within 15 feet.
One area in which Jackson could improve is his passing. Though he averaged 6.2 assists per game and had a nice chemistry with Drummond, he was often unable to make opponents pay for committing an extra defender to the roll man by finding shooters on the weak side.
While Jackson is solid if unspectacular in most aspects offensively, his defense has been a massive disappointment given his physical tools. Jackson's 7-foot wingspan is one of the largest ever recorded for a player 6-foot-3 or under, but he makes little use of it. Jackson garnered a mere 0.7 steals per game, and ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) rated him 51st defensively among point guards.
Jackson typically cedes the stronger backcourt assignment to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, but often falls asleep on shooters and dies on screens while providing little help at the nail. With how few minutes he plays, Jackson should have more energy for defense.
Indeed, despite the Pistons' backup point guard woes, Jackson played only 30.7 minutes per game in 2015-16. Now slated to miss 6-8 weeks with severe knee tendinitis, a timeline that could have him out a month or more of the regular season, it seems unlikely Van Gundy will push Jackson to play more minutes per game this year.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Position: Guard
Experience: 3 years
Age: 23
Scouting report
+ One of the league's fastest players, can stop on a dime defensively
+ Has potential as a shooter; can get a lot of 3s off but below-average percentage
+ Excellent defender of 1s and 2s, always takes the tougher guard matchup
Analysis
Caldwell-Pope would be among the best shooting guards in basketball if his shot just went in as often as it seems like it should. Perhaps because he regressed from 34.5 to 30.9 percent from deep, KCP took fewer 3s despite playing nearly five more minutes per game.
And to the extent Caldwell-Pope's jumper is effective, he has to spot up. He scored a mere 0.68 points per possession when he received passes coming off screens, per Synergy Sports Technology. At least Caldwell-Pope can get his jumper off pretty easily due to the excellent elevation on his shot. Plus, his reputation and willingness to hoist means defenses guard him outside more than his percentages suggest.
The Georgia product did make strides inside the arc, boosting his 2-point percentage by four points to 48.9 percent. He displayed an increasing facility in the pick-and-roll, posting above average efficiency on the possessions he used out of such plays. Caldwell-Pope is also a terror in transition with his explosive speed, especially after one of his frequent steals. He has outstanding explosion off one foot and finishes well at the rim for a guard, especially when he can get up a head of steam.
Caldwell-Pope is eligible for an extension prior to Oct. 31, and with the Pistons capped out for the foreseeable future there is no chance to use his low cap hold next summer to facilitate moves in free agency, as they did with Drummond in 2016. There should be incentive for the parties to get a deal done prior to the deadline in the range of $20 million per season.
Either now or in restricted free agency next summer, Caldwell-Pope is going to get paid because of his defense. He emerged as one of the best defensive shooting guards in the NBA. With quick hands and quicker feet, Caldwell-Pope slithers around ball screens and uses his great closing speed and deceleration to chase shooters away from the ball. He is also a force helping into the lane and closing back to his man in a flash.
Unfortunately for Detroit, Caldwell-Pope is too thin to use his talents as a stopper against larger wings and can be taken advantage of on switches in the post. His defensive RPM (17th among shooting guards) does lag behind the eye test in this case. Overall, though, Caldwell-Pope ranked 10th in RPM at his position.
Tobias Harris
Position: Forward
Experience: 5 years
Age: 24
Scouting report
+ Versatile combo forward can shoot, take larger players off the bounce and post up
+ Needs to increase usage and maintain efficiency to become true second option
+ Not very explosive, a little slow guarding 3s and doesn't protect the rim as a 4
Analysis
The acquisition of Harris was the latest success of Van Gundy's strategy to use salary-cap space by acquiring players already under long-term contract via trade. Harris slotted in as a combo forward next to Marcus Morris, although the defense suffers with those two together since neither is a plus on that end. Harris would fit better with Stanley Johnson if he can eventually take over for Morris as more of a stopper.
Harris is a smooth scorer who scores in a variety of ways, though like Jackson he does not stand out in any particular area. He shot better on spotups after arriving in Detroit, and is able to attack either off the dribble or in the post depending on the matchup. In all, Harris posted a solid 57.7 true shooting percentage in a Pistons uniform. He also rarely turns the ball over.
Despite his reputation as a scorer, Harris had only a 19.3 usage rate between Detroit and Orlando. On a Pistons team desperate for creators, especially with Jackson out the first part of the year, perhaps Harris could focus more on generating opportunities even if he becomes less efficient on a per-play basis. It remains to be seen whether Harris' low usage rates are due to scheme or an inability to handle a larger workload.
On defense Harris has improved under Van Gundy compared to his younger days, but is overmatched against the best wing scorers. He lacks outstanding physical tools, without great length or athleticism to guard on the perimeter, nor the rim-protection and strength to defend the interior. While certainly a solid piece on a more than fair contract at his present level of performance, Harris ability to mature into a true second scorer could hold the key to the Pistons' ceiling in the East.
Marcus Morris
Position: Forward
Experience: 5 years
Age: 27
Scouting report
+ Post player in college but mostly plays on the perimeter these days
+ 3-point threat who also likes to post up for turnaround jumpers
+ Miniscule block rate, doesn't protect the rim and a little slow to defend perimeter
Analysis
Morris also was acquired via a trade taking him into the Pistons' cap space, as the Suns moved on from him to open space for a fruitless pursuit of LaMarcus Aldridge in the summer of 2015. Morris immediately proved a steal as the starting small forward, and continued to start next to Harris after the trade deadline. Morris is owed a mere $15 million over the next three years, a great value even if Johnson eventually supplants him as a starting forward.
The Kansas product's game starts with a solid career .362 mark from downtown. A post player in college, Morris is effective with his back to the basket from the midpost, where he likes to shoot turnaround jumpers over smaller players. Morris or Harris will usually have a size advantage when they play together, depending on who is guarded by the opposing small forward. That said, Morris is not particularly dynamic off the dribble or finding his teammates, and is not a pick-and-roll threat as a ball handler. He was overstretched as the scoring centerpiece on limited Pistons bench units without Jackson or Drummond early in the year.
Defensively, Morris isn't quite big enough to handle strong power forwards in the post, and doesn't have the quickness to hang with good wing scorers or smaller players on switches. His rim protection is poor for the power forward position, with a career 0.7 percent block rate.
Andre Drummond
Position: Center
Experience: 4 years
Age: 23
Scouting report
+ Combination of strength, length, speed, and hops may be unmatched in NBA
+ Best rebounder in the league, pick-and-roll threat due to offensive rebounding and alley-oops
+ Defense slowly improving but could do more with elite physical tools
Analysis
Since Ben Wallace was probably the best rebounder of the 2000s, it is apropos that the Pistons now employ the best rebounder of the 2010s. Playing exclusively with low-rebounding stretch-4s next to him, Drummond garnered a league-high 34.2 percent of available defensive rebounds and led the league overall with a 24.5 percent rebound rate. His offensive rebounding actually declined by 2.7 percent from the prior season, but remained an elite 15.6 percent.
The offensive rebounding paired with his huge wingspan and excellent leaping ability make Drummond one of the best pick-and-roll bigs in the league. Even when he did not receive the pass, he opened the lane for Jackson as opponents terrified of an alley-oop or offensive rebound stuck to him rather than help. The next step for Drummond is learning to make a play when opponents trap his pick-and-rolls to force an early pass to him at the free throw line. Cleveland met with great success using this tactic in the playoffs because the big center lacked the vision to find open teammates in the resulting 4-on-3 situations.
The offense-starved Pistons also went to Drummond in the post on occasion, but he really isn't efficient there unless he gets position inside the lane first. And of course his execrable .355 free throw shooting limits his efficiency. Opposing teams managed to get him off the court, even with under 2 minutes left in the half, by fouling him when he was ostensibly part of the play during screening or rebounding action. At this point, we should probably assume this will be a continuing problem, as a significant improvement after years of sub-50 percent shooting would be unprecedented in NBA history.
On defense Drummond began to realize his unlimited potential under Van Gundy, but still has much work do to with his pick-and-roll angles, awareness and rim-protection. He does have a 2.0 career steal percentage, elite for a big, although he can rely too much on reach-ins with his long arms at times. At the rim Drummond allowed below-average 52.4 percent shooting. He always goes for the block with his left hand, which is useful against righties much of the time but proves limiting against drives from the left side of the rim. His 3.16 defensive RPM ranked eighth among centers, although that may overstate his value at his point.
Reserves
Stanley Johnson
Position: Forward
Experience: 1 year
Age: 20
Scouting report
+ Quick feet for his weight, impossible to move on D
+ Struggled with efficiency as a rookie, has to improve shot from outside but it isn't broken
+ Not an explosive leaper, still developing as a ball handler but has potential
Analysis
The No. 8 pick in the 2015 draft, Johnson's physical and stylistic resemblance to Ron Artest is one of the most accurate player comps I can recall. The Arizona product is built like a brick house and nearly impossible to post up, considering his strength and competitiveness. His quick feet and good hands complement that strong frame, and he has the potential to guard 1 through 4 as he refines his technique.
Johnson isn't there yet as an elite defensive force, but he has the competitiveness and physical profile to get there in time. He is one of the few players in the league with the heft and quickness to reasonably guard LeBron James in the post, as he showed at times in their playoff matchup. Mouthing off about James during that 4-0 series loss wasn't the best look, though it did illustrate his competitive fire.
Offense is where Johnson has much more work to do. He hit only .307 from downtown as a rookie and about the same on 2s away from the basket on the way to a rough 46.0 true shooting percentage overall.
Johnson doesn't get much elevation on his jumper and has a low release in front of his head, but he did work in summer league on creating space for his jumper off the dribble using his big body. He should at least become passable from downtown in time, and will be helped by playing more with the starters or at least with what should be a better Pistons bench once Jackson returns from injury.
While Johnson has a decent handle and can probably expand his pick-and-roll game, it is unlikely he will evolve beyond a third or fourth option because he lacks explosion at the rim and isn't a natural shooter. While he can get up in space for dunks or lay-ins off one foot on occasion, Johnson has no bounce at all off two.
In many ways the development of Johnson, who Van Gundy famously took ahead of Justise Winslow, is key to the Pistons' ceiling. Capped out the next few seasons, he represents their best hope of internal improvement. If Johnson can mature into a solid 3-and-D option at the 3, the Pistons could move Morris into a more appropriate bench role and move toward the elite defense they will need to contend in the East.
Ish Smith
Position: Guard
Experience: 6 years
Age: 26
Scouting report
+ Water bug point guard knows how to run a pick-and-roll, has good vision
+ Will always struggle to be efficient due to jumper; defense goes under on him
+ Plays hard on D but undersized and struggles with closeouts
Analysis
A relentless barrage of injuries in New Orleans allowed Smith to finally establish his career, so much so that Philadelphia traded two second-rounders for him in a last-ditch effort to avoid setting the all-time loss record. This summer, Van Gundy settled on his former charge in Orlando as the solution to Detroit's backup point guard woes, bestowing a three-year, $18 million contract. The wisdom of that decision will immediately be tested more severely than Van Gundy would prefer, as Smith will start in Jackson's stead to begin the year.
Smith has matured into an effective pick-and-roll operator and his quickness allows him to get all the way to the rim and probe for passing angles. His effectiveness on offense is limited by his inability to make defenses pay by going under the screen. He also has zero gravity off the ball, an issue because he isn't efficient enough to put the ball in his hands that much on a good team. Even in a career season, Smith's 44.2 true shooting percentage was below replacement level and he shot in the low 30s outside the paint.
Smith did rank a reasonable 36th at his position in RPM, and he can be a pesky on-ball defender. But his small stature means he can't switch, and he struggles in the post or closing out on shooters, making him a slightly below-average defensive point guard overall.
Jon Leuer
Position: Forward
Experience: 5 years
Age: 27
Scouting report
+ Combo big can provide a different look at power forward or center
+ Shoots it well from 3, but more than just a shooting specialist
+ Can hold up at center on the boards but limited defender at either big position
Analysis
Leuer was a big part of the Pistons' offseason haul on a four-year, $41 million deal, continuing the endless parade of stretch-4s from Phoenix to Detroit under Van Gundy. Leuer is capable from downtown at .375 for his career, and the Pistons also plan to use the solid defensive rebounder as a stretch 5 at times. He should be a solid fit with Smith in that role, as his pick-and-pops and floor-spacing should enable Smith's driving game.
That said, Leuer was not just a specialist last year -- 3s comprised only 23.6 percent of his shots. His usage was near league-average, and he's a good finisher at the rim, taking 30 percent of his shots there and making 72.5 percent of them. If he could cut out some of the 2s away from the rim, as Van Gundy will no doubt encourage, he could really boost his efficiency.
Defense is the big limitation for Leuer, as he is too slow for the 4 and doesn't protect the rim well enough at the 5. If Leuer can build on his career 2015-16, that big contract will pay him appropriately for the first couple years, but Years 3 and 4 could get ugly.
Aron Baynes
Position: Center
Experience: 4 years
Age: 29
Scouting report
+ Burly Australian center likes to mix it up on the boards, foul magnet on both ends
+ Can't jump, which limits his finishing and rim-protection
+ Good box score stats, but Pistons played poorly with him on the floor
Analysis
Baynes moved on from San Antonio to Detroit on a three-year, $19.5 million deal in the summer of 2015 despite always playing on the fringe of the rotation in San Antonio. A big part of the appeal was Baynes' ability to hit free throws when opponents' intentional fouling took Drummond off the floor, but Baynes' limited athleticism is a major limitation. Paired with Steve Blake for much of the year, Baynes proved ineffective in pick-and-roll defense and protecting the rim. At the other end, his low .606 rate finishing at the rim displayed his struggles to finish inside when contested. His lack of explosion means he has to get his shoulder into defenders to finish, and he has to rely on tougher short hooks to finish instead of attacking the rim. Baynes does have some post-up ability on switches, and a reasonable jumper out to about 18 feet.
The big Aussie plays tough and is a solid rebounder, and also gets to the foul line with his physical style. On the surface, his 17.8 PER (a metric based entirely on box score statistics) was excellent, but his negative 0.99 RPM more accurately tells the tale. Though the signings of Leuer and Boban Marjanovic were reportedly motivated by the potential for Baynes to opt out after this season, they could well prove upgrades on Baynes this year.
Boban Marjanovic
Position: Center
Experience: 1 year
Age: 28
Scouting report
+ Giant center with great per minute stats
+ Looking to establish himself in a larger role, but glacial speed limits him to certain matchups
+ Immovable in the paint, major force around the rim as shot-blocker, rebounder and finisher
Analysis
Marjanovic is the latest example that Van Gundy only considers acquiring bigs from the Suns or Spurs. The enormous Serbian followed Baynes' path from a minimum contract in San Antonio to a sizable multiyear deal with the Pistons, in his case a three-year, $21 million pact. Part of the rationale for signing Marjanovic was the Pistons' fear that Baynes would opt out of his contract in the summer of 2017, although I view that as less likely and less damaging than Detroit seems to.
At 7-foot-3, his size and immobility can put Marjanovic on either side of the line between effective and curio, depending on the matchup. He has a solid skill level, preferring a little push-shot jump hook in the post and a reasonable if awkward jump shot within 15 feet. Marjanovic also has a great work rate on the offensive glass, and dunks everything he can get his hands on around the rim. Playing mostly in garbage time, he amassed a 27.7 PER in 508 minutes and ranked 12th in RPM among centers.
But his lack of speed meant the Spurs were loath to play him against all but the biggest, most unskilled centers when it mattered. Marjanovic is in shape and tries, but his sprint down court is a jog for other players. He also can't leave the paint on the pick-and-roll, and a center with any shooting range at all can get his shot off whenever he wants. Set a screen for a shooting center, and Boban is toast every time. The behemoth is a massive shot-blocking presence at the rim when in position, though.
There is some chance Marjanovic could simply produce enough to make up for these defensive limitations. And with the signing of Leuer, they will be able to play two styles at backup center even if Baynes moves on.
Darrun Hilliard
Position: Guard
Experience: 1 year
Age: 23
Scouting report
+ Light NBA résumé, solid ball handler and shooter in college
+ Has size to defend on the wing, but an average athlete
Analysis
The 38th pick out of Villanova in the 2015 draft, Hillard has put precious little on film to evaluate at the NBA level. He also missed the 2016 summer league with a stress fracture in his lower back. Hilliard is not especially athletic getting to the rim or a dynamic ball handler, but knows how to play and is comfortable moving the ball after straight-line penetration.
Hilliard should be able to defend either wing position off the bench; he is 6-6 with a 6-8 wingspan and good strength. He shot well on 3s his last two years at Villanova and never turned it over his senior year. Van Gundy has stated that Hilliard will compete with Reggie Bullock for minutes at backup shooting guard, but those should be sparse since Johnson can play there also and Caldwell-Pope plays so many minutes. It is difficult to speculate how Hilliard will fare in that competition given his short NBA résumé.
Reggie Bullock
Position: Forward
Experience: 3 years
Age: 25
Scouting report
+ 3-and-D prospect has played little in three years with three different organizations
+ Shooting potential from outside, but does precious little inside the arc
+ Strong frame and good defensive reputation in college, but yet to impress in NBA on D
Analysis
Bullock was drafted by the Clippers as the 25th pick in the 2013 draft as a 3-and-D prospect. Though he looks the part, it is telling that he has received limited playing time on three teams (he arrived in Detroit from Phoenix via the Marcus Morris trade) that desperately needed that skill set. He played a mere 429 minutes in 2015-16, though he did put up a solid .583 true shooting percentage on the strength of 41.5 percent 3-point shooting. He is only .343 career from downtown though, and Bullock does little inside the arc, with a mere 12.6 career usage rate.
The UNC product's defense trends more toward serviceable than outstanding as well, although he is strong enough to move over to the 3 in the right matchup. Bullock is eligible for a rookie extension going into his fourth year, and perhaps it would behoove the Pistons to take a flier if he is willing to sign on for under $5 million per season. But the fact that no coach seems to want to play him is troubling.
Henry Ellenson
Position: Forward
Experience: Rookie
Age: 19
Scouting report
+ Highly skilled big man can dribble, pass and shoot
+ Versatile jump shot off the catch or dribble, but hasn't created efficient shots
+ Projects to struggle on D, too slow for 4 and ground-bound for 5 with poor instincts
Analysis
The Pistons made Ellenson the 18th pick in the 2016 draft, a selection that would have been traded to Houston for Donatas Motiejunas at the deadline had Detroit not rescinded the trade due to D-Mo's back issues. A mobile combo big, Ellenson flashes impressive skill level and mobility on offense for his size. He is comfortable in grab-and-go scenarios, and can easily create long 2-point jumpers. At this point, though, Ellenson's skill level is more impressive than effective, as he looks great creating sweet stepback looks that don't go in very often. He struggles to finish inside and is more outside shot-taker than shot-maker. His offensive future likely depends on his ability to hit 3-pointers, at which he showed some positive signs in preseason. If he can make the shots he is good at generating, he could become a valuable piece on offense.
It is Ellenson's shaky defense that could limit his upside to solid backup. He has center size, but neither the instincts or hops to protect the rim. Ellenson also struggles to get into a stance and defend the pick-and-roll as a traditional big, and putting him at the four won't work because he can't defend combo forwards one-on-one or close out to the 3-point line.
Ray McCallum
Position: Guard
Experience: 3 years
Age: 25
Scouting report
+ Not a pure point guard, but not a particularly dynamic scorer either
+ Smooth game, but hasn't developed an elite NBA skill
+ Won third point guard job in camp, will be needed to begin the year
Analysis
Some predicted a strong future for McCallum when the Spurs acquired from the Kings in the summer of 2015 for their own (low) 2016 second-rounder, but he played mostly for the Austin Spurs and was waived in favor of Kevin Martin for the Spurs' stretch run. McCallum had previously played extensively down the end of the 2014-15 season in Sacramento, as the Kings were beset by point guard injuries and elected not to sign additional help. Coincidentally, Sacramento managed to retain the top-10-protected pick they owed to the Bulls for the fifth consecutive season.
McCallum is more smooth than explosive, and isn't an above-average passer, penetrator or shooter for his position. He owns a career .470 true shooting percentage, and doesn't make up for that with his defense since he has only average physical tools.
The Detroit Country Day product was brought in on a minimum contract that is non-guaranteed until the league-wide Jan. 10 cut-down date, but he appears to have made the final roster with the Pistons' release of Lorenzo Brown. McCallum should get a chance at backup point guard minutes to start the season with Jackson's injury, but Van Gundy may wish to upgrade if McCallum can't improve on his performance to date.
Michael Gbinije
Position: Guard
Experience: Rookie
Age: 24
Scouting report
+ Solid but not great athlete who plays hard; handled the ball in college
+ Shooting stroke improved at Syracuse, but poor free throw percentage limits projectability
+ Old for a rookie
Analysis
The Pistons took Gbinije 49th overall in the 2016 draft on the strength of his floor game. He impressed in 5-on-5 action at the NBA combine, where he used his physical tools to good effect. The Syracuse product showed an ability to get into his mark defensively despite having played in a 2-3 zone in college. He also emerged into an adequate shooter in college, but his poor free throw shooting does not augur well for a transition to the NBA 3-point line.
Gbinije spent some time at the point the past two years, although he probably isn't dynamic enough to have the ball in his hands regularly at the NBA level. The biggest thing holding him back as a prospect is his age. He turned 24 in June so he will need to make an impact quickly with much of his development time behind him already.