What moves should the Nets make? Will Jeremy Lin or Derrick Rose have a better season?
Our NBA Insiders preview Brooklyn's 2016-17 season.
1. What is the best-case scenario for the Nets this season?
Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: My projections, which have the Nets winning 30 games, don't expect the Nets to be quite as awful as the general consensus expects, so that's a plus. The early part of their schedule doesn't look too rough, so maybe they can hover around .500 for a while and create some excitement?
Tom Haberstroh, ESPN Insider: Beating the Celtics both times and moving a healthy Brook Lopez for a future first-round pick. The Celtics have the right to swap their 2017 first-round pick, so it's Brooklyn's best interest to sabotage Boston as much as possible. Beyond that, they should forget their own wins and losses; this season's all about building long-term assets.
Amin Elhassan, ESPN Insider: Being bluntly realistic, the best-case scenarios all pay dividends years from now. This team is likely the worst in the league, but unlike most bottom feeders, they don't have the solace of a high lottery pick to soothe the pains of a long, awful season.
Positive developments might include rookie head coach Kenny Atkinson having this team competitive and finding his voice, near-rookie GM Sean Marks mining hidden gems from the D-League and swinging a trade of a vet to return some modest value in the form of future assets, and a player like Bojan Bogdanovic taking a step forward.
Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Insider: Let's face it: Marks is facing a heck of a rebuilding challenge and he's really just at the beginning of it. The roster is full of placeholder veterans, though not a terrible set, including Jeremy Lin, Brook Lopez and Trevor Booker. But Lopez might be the only legit starter on that team. The Nets are playing to build value in their veterans so they can be swapped for future assets.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: That the young players under team control lead them to a better record than expected. With 2015 first-round picks Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Chris McCullough, plus this year's first-rounder Caris LeVert, the Nets actually have a base of young talent despite repeatedly trading their own draft picks. Those players are the best source of hope for the future.
2. What's the biggest issue for the Nets franchise?
Haberstroh: Talent, talent, talent. Do they have a future All-Star on the team? Hollis-Jefferson has the brightest future among the youngsters, but he'll have to become a far better scorer to get there. Lin, Booker and Lopez are solid vets but after that it's a barren roster. Marks has his work cut out.
Elhassan: The pick obligation situation makes it very difficult for Brooklyn to effectively carry out a rebuild. As noted above, usually bad teams have the prospect of a great draft pick to look forward to, but because of bad decisions made by administrations past, the Nets have to take gambles on prospects that are hidden in plain sight. Building a culture and attracting free-agent talent is a difficult prospect to undertake when you are handcuffed.
Doolittle: There is absolutely no elite upside on the roster. Until you've got that in place, you're going to be treading water. And it's not an issue likely to be addressed until the 2019 draft.
Engelmann: The deal Billy King swung for Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Jason Terry will haunt the Nets franchise for years to come. Sporting an awful roster while owing the rights to multiple future first-rounders to another team is the worst possible situation an NBA franchise can find itself in.
Pelton: Getting good enough by the end of Hollis-Jefferson's rookie contract to take advantage of the value in free agency. To compete for top free agents, the Nets will have to reach a baseline level of confidence. And it will be difficult to do so by the time Hollis-Jefferson -- and the other young players, if they develop as hoped -- start making market value.
3. Which NYC point guard will have a better season: Jeremy Lin or Derrick Rose?
Elhassan: I'm not going to be difficult and name a third player, so I'll say Lin. First, he'll have more of an opportunity to dominate the ball; even the most optimistic projection of Rose still has to keep Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis happy.
Second, Lin doesn't have any real competition for his spot (Greivis Vasquez is coming off lingering ankle issues), while Rose has to deal with Brandon Jennings. Finally, as the adage goes, 80 percent of life is showing up, and Rose has earned our skepticism with regard to his ability to stay healthy.
Haberstroh: Oh, this one is easy for me. Jeremy Lin. Rose missed all of preseason and Lin has looked fantastic in the preseason. Given Rose's health questions and the fact that last season he ranked 69th in real plus-minus (RPM) among point guards, I'd go as far to say Brandon Jennings will be superior as well.
Engelmann: Lin, do doubt. Rose's productive NBA days are over. Last season, he ranked among the worst defenders in the league (defensive RPM: -3.1), with low rates in defensive rebounding, blocks and steals. Combine that with his abysmal true shooting percentage (47.9) and you have a player that should not be in anyone's starting unit.
Doolittle: Lin. He may be best suited to be a third guard, but he's still a good player. Rose used to be a good player. Until I see something a lot different than I saw in Chicago, I'm sticking with the past tense on him.
Pelton: Lin. Not only has he been the better player since Rose's injuries -- he's posted a 14.5 player efficiency rating over the past three seasons to Rose's 14.1 mark -- he's in an offense better suited for his talents. Brooklyn should emphasize the pick-and-roll game in which Lin thrives, whereas Rose will likely spend much of his time spotting up.
4. What trade would make the most sense for the Nets?
Haberstroh: Like I said at the top, they should hope Lopez gets off to a great start so they can flip him to a playoff team for future assets. Look out for Portland, which has a need at the center spot and holds an extra 2018 first-rounder from Cleveland. Also keep an eye on Charlotte, reeling from Cody Zeller's knee issues.
Elhassan: Pawning off Lopez for a couple of unproven players and/or a pick package. Marks has to roll the dice on as many young players as he can get in the door because holding onto anyone established on this roster who can provide value elsewhere is like watching diamonds fall down a storm drain.
Engelmann: One dream scenario for the Nets would be the Celtics running into chemistry (or injury) problems while still thinking they'd have a shot at the title if they added just one more piece. In that case, maybe a three-team trade could be engineered, with Lopez being dealt and at least one future Nets pick making its way back to Brooklyn.
Doolittle: Lopez is their biggest piece, and the reality is he's going to have to be moved. When and how are the dual dilemmas facing Marks. You figure that with just one more guaranteed season on Lopez's contract beyond 2016-17, a deal has to happen by this season's trade deadline for the Nets to get maximum value. This of course presumes that the Nets don't want to simply build around Lopez. Given their timeline, his age and his injury history, I'd move him.
Pelton: I'm torn on the idea of trading Lopez. While I think it would be wise to sell high in case of a possible recurrence of foot trouble, this isn't a great time to get value for a center. I would look to trade Bojan Bogdanovic in the last year of his contract if there's any interest and would happily take any value for the veterans on one-year deals (Randy Foye, Luis Scola, Greivis Vasquez).
5. How many current Nets will play on Brooklyn's next playoff team?
Haberstroh: One, Hollis-Jefferson. I like Lin better than most, but it's hard to see him fitting into their long-term plans when he's already 28 years old. As my man Fran Fraschilla once said, this team is two years away from being two years away.
Engelmann: One? It'll take some time for the Nets to get back into the playoffs for reasons mentioned above. The one player I can see still being with the Nets in four or five years is Hollis-Jefferson -- he doesn't seem like the kind of player other teams would be eager to sign because he doesn't score a lot. His defensive impact appears to be good enough, though, for him to be a starter on a playoff team.
Elhassan: Barring the heist of the century, it's going to be a while, a LONG WHILE, before the Nets are playing past mid-April. I don't think there's a single player on the roster who is "keeper" status, and so if I had to bet, I'd say none of these guys is on the next Nets playoff roster.
Doolittle: We're looking at three or four years minimum before the Nets are looking at the playoffs unless they get lucky on a major free agent. As mentioned, they don't even have that first cornerstone piece, nor the piece that can lead to the cornerstone piece, nor the draft pick to set it all in motion next summer. That being the case, I think we're looking at two long-term keepers: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Chris McCullough.
Pelton: Hollis-Jefferson is the only player I'd be confident is still around. Odds are a couple of others among the young players and perhaps even Lopez -- a fixture in Brooklyn at this point -- will join him, but individually none of them seem better than even bets.