Will the Raptors return to the conference finals this year? What trades should they make?
Our NBA Insiders preview Toronto's 2016-17 season.
1. What is the biggest issue facing the Raptors this season?
Brian Windhorst, ESPN.com: LeBron James is still in Cleveland and the Cavs have retained their core for the next three years (or at least two). That's a hard truth for everyone in the East. Oh yeah, the Raptors are not as deep with big men as they were either.
Nate Duncan, ESPN Insider: Defense in the frontcourt. Jonas Valanciunas and Jared Sullinger might not be a viable defensive frontcourt, and the Raptors began many games in a hole last year with Valanciunas and Luis Scola starting together.
The 2015-16 Raptors more than offset that with an awesome bench-plus-Kyle Lowry unit featuring Bismack Biyombo at center. Without Biyombo, the Raptors may take a big step back in their overall defense.
Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: Rim protection. With Biyombo signing with the Magic, the Raptors lost their best rim protector. Newly acquired Sullinger plays below the rim, and Patrick Patterson has never been much of a shot-blocker. Will Valanciunas' ordinary block rate be enough to deter opponents from driving?
Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Insider: Let's hope Jared Sullinger's foot problem doesn't linger. The Raptors have a terrific starting group, though they'll have to prove that interior defense won't be a problem.
If that works out, then they need Terrence Ross or Norman Powell to develop into a consistent anchor for the second unit. That's a young group, but there's a lot of potential there. A strong bench could help Toronto push into the mid-50s in wins and keep Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan fresh for the playoffs.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: Whether Sullinger and Valanciunas can play together. Aside from a minor injury, Sullinger has been the Raptors' starting power forward from the opening of training camp, but if opponents don't respect his inaccurate 3-point shooting (28.2 percent career), it could close down driving lanes for DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry.
2. What's the biggest source of hope for the Raptors this season?
Windhorst: Lowry is in a contract year and he wants to get paid. When Lowry is focused and motivated, he's often a devastating force. But this is something to watch because Lowry is at an age when guards with his size and skill set tend to start slowing down. That contract will be a hard decision for Raptors and he knows it. He's going to have to force their hand, and he does that if he can have another year like last season.
Duncan: The Raptors have a lot of unrealized talent. Valanciunas and DeRozan are still young enough to improve on defense. Norman Powell has shown flashes of versatile 3-and-D play. Terrence Ross could take some steps forward to justify the three-year, $33 million extension that kicks in this year. They might get something out of young bigs Bebe Nogueira and Pascal Siakam.
And though I criticized the Raptors for picking Jakob Poeltl No. 9 in the draft because he has a low upside and is redundant with Valanciunas, it's conceivable he emerges into a reasonable backup center option. Those are a lot of wild cards that could hit.
Doolittle: You really have to like the continuity on this team. I was a little concerned about Masai Ujiri's inability to find a solution at power forward last season, but you can see how that roster has grown. I'm not sure what the ceiling is, but the Raptors are as well-positioned as anybody to take advantage of a slip-up in Cleveland.
Engelmann: That DeMarre Carroll can play an injury-free season. Carroll played only 26 games last season because of a knee injury. It'd be a big plus if he could get fully back to form and play as well as he did when he was with the Hawks.
Pelton: No Eastern Conference team has won more games in the past three seasons than the Raptors, whose 153 victories are seven ahead of the Hawks and 10 ahead of the Cavaliers. The DeRozan-Lowry-Dwane Casey era has yielded consistent success, and there's no reason to expect that will change this season.
3. Which Raptor is most intriguing to you this season?
Windhorst: Valanciunas played perhaps the best basketball of his career during the playoffs last year. When he went down with injury it was a real blow because the Cavs had issues handling him. He's got potential to be a load if he builds on that performance.
Engelmann: DeRozan. Real plus-minus was not a big fan of his performance last season, rating him a hair below average. I was really surprised to see the Raptors throw $145 million at him, as Toronto played six points (per 100 possessions) better when he sat. Maybe this is the year his impact takes a turn for the better?
Doolittle: Valanciunas. He keeps getting better, but in baby steps. He's at an age where you could really see a breakout, and having Sullinger around should keep him around the basket with lots of space with which to work.
Pelton: Carroll. Remember, Toronto won 56 games last season while getting relatively little from its marquee addition in free agency, who was limited to 26 games by knee injuries. If Carroll is healthy, Casey will have the option of going to smaller, more defensive lineups with him at power forward and either Joseph or Powell joining the starting guards.
Duncan: Powell. The strong, long-armed 6-foot-4 shooting guard can defend up or down a position against all but the strongest 3s and has shot a high percentage from downtown in a small sample. He has shown flashes of being able to create with the ball in his hands. If Powell can build on his impressive limited-minute production, that could make Ross or even DeRozan available in a trade next offseason.
4. What trade would make the most sense for the Raptors?
Windhorst: They talked to the Hawks about a Paul Millsap deal over the summer. Terms would get interesting, as he's likely going to opt out of his deal at the end of the season, but getting a dynamic two-way All-Star would be huge for any team. Then again, the Cavs vanquished Millsap the past two years in the playoffs.
Duncan: Valanciunas is a lumbering post-up center who lacks mobility on defense, while DeRozan doesn't take 3s and figures to become ever more reliable on inefficient 2-point jumpers over the life of his five-year near-max contract. Moving them for players who don't create shots as well but fit better into a modern system could make sense.
Also, if the Raptors disappoint this season, it is not inconceivable they could look to move Lowry at the deadline as he approaches free agency rather than pay him more than $20 million per year in a new contract into his mid-30s.
Engelmann: The Raptors have a solid roster and don't need to force any trades. But if I were appointed GM, I'd try my best to trade DeRozan. You don't want to be paying about $30 million per season for the next five years for a player who affects only one side of the court positively (with a poor defensive RPM: minus-2.5).
Doolittle: If this team is in contention, which I think it will be, then it makes sense to package some of their younger players who aren't necessarily rotation pieces this season -- Bruno Cabcolo, Lucas Nogueira, Delon Wright. See if you can find a veteran frontcourt player to have in back of Valaciunas, Sullinger and Patrick Patterson. A defender/shot-blocker/enforcer type, that is.
Pelton: If Sullinger doesn't work at power forward and rookie Siakam isn't ready for regular minutes, I could see the Raptors looking at adding a power forward or combo forward (P.J. Tucker is surely still on Toronto's radar) at the trade deadline. For now, however, the roster looks set.
5. Fact or fiction: The Raptors will make the Eastern Conference finals again.
Windhorst: It's a fact that there's no way I could make a prediction like that right now with so many variables. I would say that I'm comfortable that they are the second-best team in the East at the moment.
Engelmann: Fiction. Making the conference finals is a tough feat. With LeBron still in the East, there's only a single spot open, which multiple teams are vying for. The Vegas bookmakers are giving the Celtics a slight edge to grab the No. 2 seed, meaning the Raptors would not have home-court advantage in the second round.
Duncan: Fiction. The Celtics are favorites for the No. 2 seed, and it is difficult to imagine the Raptors winning a series against them without home-court advantage. The Raptors had the point differential of only a 53-win team last year, so their 56 wins is a little misleading. More important, I doubt that Lowry, who had a top-10 individual regular season last year, can maintain the same level of health or performance. If he takes a step back, Toronto might not have the top-end firepower required to beat Boston.
Doolittle: Fact. Every year brings improvement, yet there is no one on the current roster that you can definitely say has peaked or is in decline. Sullinger was a great addition, and Powell and Ross could be poised for breakthrough seasons.
Pelton: More fiction than fact. With Boston's addition of Al Horford and likely regression from Toronto, I have the Celtics as the most likely team to join the Cavaliers in the conference finals.