Are the Thunder a top-four team in the Western Conference? What trades should they make?
Our NBA Insiders preview Oklahoma City's 2016-17 season.
1. Fact or Fiction: Russell Westbrook should be the favorite for the MVP award.
Royce Young, ESPN.com: Fiction. Westbrook is the sentimental favorite, with heaps of goodwill pouring in. But there's one pesky problem: wins. There hasn't been a sub-50 win MVP since 1982 (Moses Malone), and unless Westbrook is really special, it's unlikely the Thunder reach the threshold. LeBron James is still the best player in basketball, and the Warriors are going to steal votes -- as well as all of the wins.
Neil Johnson, ESPN Analytics: Fact. But even if Russell Westbrook is the odds-on favorite now, we are a long way away from the actual voting. James Harden is in a very similar situation. LeBron is still LeBron. I will take the field.
Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: Fiction. Vegas says he is, but this is one instance where I disagree with the bookmakers. In the past 30 years, the MVP has come from a playoff seed worse than second just twice: Karl Malone's No. 3-seeded Jazz tied the No. 1-seeded Spurs for best record in 1998-99 (a lockout year), and Michael Jordan (also for a No. 3 seed, in 1987-88) averaged 35 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 5.9 APG, 3.2 SPG and 1.6 BPG while shooting 53.5 percent from the field -- and he won Defensive Player of the Year.
Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Insider: Fiction. We don't give the MVP to guys who put up enormous numbers on middling teams. I mean, I'll be watching. There may be no more compelling player to watch on a nightly basis than Westbrook will be this season. I just don't see the Thunder getting to 50 wins. The MVP will come from a team that does -- probably Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Blake Griffin. Maybe James Harden.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: Fact. I'm unconvinced that this is the year LeBron James takes the regular season more seriously -- especially after winning a championship -- and while James Harden might put up box-score stats as impressive as Westbrook or more, that's only going to translate into MVP votes if he also improves on defense and the Rockets finish ahead of the Thunder. That's too many ifs for me.
2. Fact or Fiction: Victor Oladipo and Steven Adams will be cornerstones for the next great Thunder team.
Young: Fact-ish. Steven Adams, yes. He's already a borderline-elite defensive big man, and his offensive game has taken leaps since the second half of last season. He's a lethal pick-and-roll partner with Westbrook and a gargantuan offensive rebounder.
Oladipo is still a question mark. There's no guarantee he'll even be with the Thunder long-term (he will be a restricted free agent next summer if he doesn't get an extension before Oct. 31), and while he's a very good player, how he will mesh with Westbrook is too much of an unknown.
Johnson: Adams is a cornerstone now. Not so sure about Oladipo. I have an issue with the word "great," since that is subjective. If viewed as the next time they make it back to the Western Conference finals, I see this as "fiction," due to the combination of my feelings toward Oladipo and when that next trip to the Western Conference finals will be.
Doolittle: Fiction. I definitely can see Adams getting there in terms of his quality of play. He can be something like what Joakim Noah was a couple of years ago when he was first-team All-NBA. Yet I feel like if Westbrook is there for the duration, the best fit for a No. 2 will be an offensively dominant big guy, whether it's a 4 or a 5.
I'm not sure I see Oladipo developing the shot-making consistency a player needs to be an All-Star. I'm also not sure when the Thunder will be great.
Engelmann: Fact. I think highly of OKC's player-development staff. And since the current starting lineup features an average age of 23.6, there's definitely room for growth. Adams and Oladipo, who both had a real plus-minus (RPM) around 2.5 last season, definitely seem good enough to be productive starters on a very good team.
Pelton: Fact, depending on how you define "cornerstone." If it's the best two players, then no, probably not. As part of a supporting cast for either Westbrook or a new star acquired for him, sure.
3. What is the biggest issue facing the Thunder this season?
Engelmann: That Westbrook plays out of control too often. Even last season, with Kevin Durant still on the roster, Westbrook sometimes tried to do too much, be it taking ill-advised 3s -- he made less than 30 percent of 341 attempts -- or driving head-on into traffic, which led to the league's second-worst turnover rate. With Durant gone, Westbrook probably feels he has even more freedom.
Johnson: Floor spacing. The only shooter the Thunder have from last year is Anthony Morrow, who is a defensive liability. Alex Abrines helps, but that puts only two above-average 3-point shooters in the rotation, and those guys will come off the bench.
Doolittle: Can coach Billy Donovan keep Westbrook channeled into the right direction? What is the right direction? It's tempting to just let Westbrook average 35 points and 10 assists and marvel at his brilliance. But Donovan has to figure what the ideal mix of production needs to be for his rotation players to reach their potential.
Young: Shooting. Simply put: They don't have any. On the other hand, the Thunder also might have one of the best offensive rebounding teams in history. They'll have plenty of chances to prove it.
Pelton: Lack of outside shooting. Even in the preseason, teams have packed the paint defensively against Oklahoma City. The Thunder will have to beat zones and help-heavy defenses with enough 3-pointers to create room for their guards to drive to the basket.
4. What trade makes the most sense for the Thunder?
Young: They need a small forward -- pretty obvious considering a future Hall of Famer just vacated the position. In the short term, a deal for the apparently disgruntled Rudy Gay in Sacramento could be beneficial; the Thunder might not even have to include enticing assets.
For more of a long-term answer, the Thunder could shop Enes Kanter or rookie Domantas Sabonis -- who the organization is very high on -- to try and wrangle a high-caliber swingman.
Doolittle: I really like the rumors that have OKC targeting Rudy Gay. He's a fit as an offensive talent who doesn't need to be an alpha scorer, and he would be excellent running the floor with Westbrook. If the Kings are moving Gay, the Thunder should be able to find the young pieces to swing a deal.
Johnson: I'm not sure a trade makes sense right now. The Thunder are right at the salary cap, made significant offseason moves and have already pressed the reset button.
Engelmann: The Thunder don't have a great bench, and they're especially thin at the wing positions, with Kyle Singler (RPM: -2.7) and Anthony Morrow (-2.6) as backups. They could use some new blood there. That being said, with how good the Thunder are at developing young players, I'd probably advise against dealing future picks for quick help.
Pelton: I don't think the Thunder should be in trade mode right now. If Oklahoma City is in the mix for a top-five seed, I could see adding another two-way wing before the deadline, someone in the Wilson Chandler mold. An Ersan Ilyasova trade would also be reasonable if the Thunder slip out of playoff contention or are comfortable enough with Sabonis and other options at power forward.
5. Fact or Fiction: The Thunder will make the Western Conference semifinals.
Johnson: Fiction. Our Basketball Power Index pegs them as having a 28 percent chance of making the Western Conference semifinals. It's hard to imagine the Thunder pulling an upset against one of the four best teams in the West. Unless a team is likely to be a top-three seed, I wouldn't feel confident.
Young: Fiction. The playoff picture in the West appears to be split into three tiers: the Warriors, then the Spurs and Clippers, and then seven other teams with a legitimate shot to land anywhere between four and 10. The Thunder could be good enough to score a top-four seed. But anticipating a series win feels like setting the bar too high.
Engelmann: Fiction. There's no clear fourth-best team in the West -- after the Warriors, Spurs and Clippers -- so OKC grabbing the No. 4 seed is not out of the question. But there are lots of contenders for that spot, including the Rockets, Blazers and Jazz, meaning the Thunder have about a 25 percent chance of grabbing home court in the first round.
Doolittle: Tricky question. There's only one available slot after Golden State, San Antonio and the L.A. Clippers, and a lot of teams that could get it. Some of those contenders are young teams projected to break out, like Utah and Minnesota.
I could see the Thunder getting the No. 4 seed. They are deep, and it shouldn't take 50 wins to get it. But I think in the first-round format, a good defensive team can game plan for Westbrook. So I'll go with "fiction" on this one.
Pelton: Fiction. I wouldn't be stunned if it happens, but the Thunder don't project as one of the four best teams in the West. There's plenty of competition in the next tier of teams in the conference, including Houston and Portland.