Will the Clippers make the Western Conference finals? What trades should they make?
Our NBA Insiders preview their 2016-17 season.
1. Fact or Fiction: The Clippers have the second-best starting lineup in the NBA.
Kevin Arnovitz, ESPN.com: Fact, if you go by last season's data, which had the lineup that included Luc Mbah a Moute at the small forward. That five-man combo crushed the league, with a gaudy net rating of 19.4 points per 100 possessions, easily the best lineup in the league that recorded over 250 minutes. Take out Mbah a Moute, and that combo is the best returning non-Warriors four-man lineup in the league. They're also a lot better defensively than you might think.
Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: Fact. The best starting lineup, obviously, belongs to the Warriors. The Cavs' starting lineup includes the defensively anemic Irving, while the Spurs start a way-beyond-his-prime Tony Parker. Meanwhile, the Clippers' starting lineup doesn't have any giant weaknesses, and features an underrated and still elite Chris Paul (real plus-minus: 8.6).
Andrew Han, ESPN.com: Fact. Chris Paul, JJ Redick, Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan and a revolving door of small forwards have consistently landed at or near the top of the list for starters in net rating each of the past four seasons. Be it with Matt Barnes or Wesley Johnson or Luc Mbah a Moute, the core Clippers quartet has hummed to near perfection.
Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Insider: Fiction. I'd still put both of last year's finalists ahead of them. Age is becoming an issue, too. But it's a heck of a good lineup -- if everyone stays healthy.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: Fact. The Clippers' plus-19.4 net rating with their starting five on the court was actually best among all lineups with at least 250 minutes played last season, per NBA.com/Stats. With Kevin Durant in Golden State, the Warriors have the league's best starting lineup, but the Clippers enter the season No. 2 in the power rankings.
2. Fact or Fiction: This is the season the Clippers' age starts to show.
Han: Fiction. The Clippers boast an older roster (and much older if including the 39-year-old Paul Pierce), but Jamal Crawford is really the only consistent contributor on the theoretical decline. Chris Paul's game is suited to age well and shooting (Redick's key skill) typically resists Father Time. Griffin and Jordan are both peaking in physical ability, which should mitigate any age-related attrition.
Arnovitz: Fact, but the effects of age can be mitigated with rest and recovery, which is why you could see the ranking members of the Clippers' core get a steady diet of rest once we reach the winter doldrums of the interminable 82-game regular season. If the Clippers are doing it right, Paul should play not much north of 2,000 minutes before the postseason.
Doolittle: Fiction. It has to at some point, right? But with Griffin headed into free agency there is an urgency to this season for the Clippers where we find out just what the ceiling for this group really is. The depth is better so Rivers will be able to steal as much rest for his guys as he needs.
Engelmann: Fact. I don't think it'll hamper their starting lineup significantly, but Jamal Crawford (age 36) and Paul Pierce (age 39) were already negatives last season, with RPM ratings of -2.3 and -2.6, respectively, and shooting a combined 39 percent from the field. Expect this number to get even worse, as the largest drops in offensive performance appear at age 36 and beyond.
Pelton: Faction. We can look at the track record of similar players to give us an idea how likely this is to happen -- and I'd say it's more likely than most people are thinking -- but we won't actually know until the season plays out.
3. What is the biggest issue facing the Clippers this season?
Arnovitz: The Clippers have been looking for a reliable, two-way solution at the small forward slot ever since coach Mike Dunleavy was juggling minutes for Corey Maggette and Quinton Ross.
Last season, the Clips fared best with Luc Mbah a Moute at the 3, but the defensive stopper doesn't command much attention in the half court. Wesley Johnson, too, posted solid defensive numbers but needs to hit more than a third of his 3s. Paul Pierce and Alan Anderson will see some time, but neither gives the Clippers the entirety of what they need from the position.
Engelmann: Bench performance. Austin Rivers (RPM: -3.6) would probably not make the roster for 29 other NBA teams, yet he gets 22 minutes a night while playing for his dad. Add in Crawford and a 39-year-old Pierce and the bench will have trouble keeping anyone from scoring at will.
Doolittle: Health, first and foremost. Still, as much as I like the improved depth and the additional shooting and the interesting dynamic of having two jump-shooting bigs coming off the bench in Bass and Speights ... has any of this really moved the needle for the postseason?
The only thing that I could see as different for a healthy Clippers roster in the playoffs is if Griffin raises his game even further.
Han: Health is the primary concern, as is the case with most contending teams. Paul and Griffin have both been hampered by fluky injuries the past couple of seasons, robbing Los Angeles of its max potential when it counts the most. With chemistry seemingly not an issue this season (the bulk of the Clippers' bench was re-signed), making it to the postseason as close to 100 percent as possible is the emphasis.
Pelton: The lingering need to put together a playoff run worthy of the talent on the roster, and the mighty roadblock in the way in the form of the Warriors. Can the Clippers have a successful season without beating Golden State -- or taking advantage of an upset -- and getting to the Finals?
4. What trade would make the most sense for the Clippers?
Han: Upgrade the small forward position. Luc Mbah a Moute acquitted himself well as last season's starter, but the concern that his inability to stretch the floor will haunt the title hopeful's chances come April, May and June. If the Clippers can acquire a publicly-available Rudy Gay (without giving up a first-round pick), it could provide just enough of an upgrade at the wing to give others pause come a seven-game series.
Doolittle: None. Again, barring injuries, Rivers can stand pat with this roster. Sure, I'd like to see another defender for the wing and another defensive center for the end of the bench, but a team can't have everything. But if there is no in-season action on the trade front and they again falter in the spring, Rivers will face a busy summer.
Arnovitz: The Clippers could use some help on the wing (rinse, repeat), but their most valuable contracts happen to belong to their best players, which makes it tough to execute an impact trade mid-season. Paul and Griffin are in the final guaranteed years of their deals and it's hard to imagine a scenario where either is moved before February.
Engelmann: None. As a GM, Doc Rivers is up there with Kings GM Vlade Divac when it comes to making horrible trades (and signings) that have awful long-term implications for the franchise. Rivers should keep his hands off the phone so as to not further erode the quality of the Clippers' bench.
Pelton: The Clippers still haven't found the reliable 3-and-D wing that would be ideal to complete their starting lineup. They can't trade a first-round pick for a while, but would one plus matching salary be enough to acquire a player like Wilson Chandler from the Denver Nuggets? Thabo Sefolosha might be a lower-cost option.
5. Fact or Fiction: The Clippers will make the Western Conference finals.
Arnovitz: Fact. On paper, the Clippers have the second-best roster in the conference -- then again, lack of talent hasn't been the issue in recent seasons when they've bowed out early.
Why is this season different? The Thunder are no longer, the Spurs appear more vulnerable, the Jazz and Trail Blazers are young, the Grizzlies are brittle and the Rockets are unknown. Disaster could befall the Clips again, but at some point the probabilities have to fall in their favor, right? ... Right?... Right?
Han: Fact. For the first time in the Paul-Griffin era, the Clippers' roster offers the most continuity among the contenders from the previous season; San Antonio shed Tim Duncan and Boris Diaw, and Kevin Durant moved from OKC to Golden State.
If Los Angeles can get ahead in the schedule and collect wins quickly, the Clippers could secure themselves the top spot in the bracket opposite the Warriors. And that's a reasonable path to the conference finals.
Engelmann: Fiction. The Clippers may be the third-best team in the West, but there's a large gap between them and the second-best team, the Spurs. Also, they have shown a propensity to underachieve in the postseason -- the Clippers have never reached the Western Conference finals, despite having the league's second-best rating (by the Simple Rating System) twice in the past three years.
Doolittle: Fact. I'm optimistic about this team, if only because Griffin looks so good and Doc has decided to stagger his minutes with Paul. This is Golden State's biggest threat in the West.
Pelton: Fact. I mean obviously not fact; the conference finals are seven months away and a lot can happen between now and then. But after the Warriors, I would give the Clippers the best chance of reaching the conference finals in the West because I think their roster is better built for the postseason than San Antonio's.