How will Dwyane Wade, Jimmy Butler, Rajon Rondo and the new-look Chicago Bulls do in 2016-17?
Here are our player scouting reports and analysis.
Projected starters
Rajon Rondo
Position: Guard
Experience: 10 years
Age: 30
Scouting report
+ Shooting-challenged floor general who is still one of the league's best passers
+ Defense and floor game have slipped since ACL injury
+ Looking to reestablish career on second straight short-term contract
Analysis
Rondo's move from Sacramento to Chicago was one that few (other than a certain podcast) saw coming. The two-year, $27.4 million contract is a second straight "prove it" deal for Rondo, with only $3 million guaranteed for 2017-18.
The mercurial point guard maintains some of the skills that made him one of the league's best in his prime. Although his league-leading 11.7 assists per game were marred by stat-hunting, Rondo is excellent at squeezing the ball through to the roll man and might be the league's best post-entry passer.
He shot a career-high 36.5 percent from 3-point range a year ago, but his low volume and reputation as a non-shooter mean his defender is often helping off him at the nail. His reluctance to shoot jumpers off the dribble also allows defenses to go under on pick-and-rolls or dribble handoffs in the half court. As a result, the Kentucky product's positive effect on an offense is far less than his box-score stats would suggest, as evidenced by his ranking 23rd among point guards in the offensive component of ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM).
That said, Rondo has impressed at times in the preseason, pushing the ball hard in transition and showing an increased willingness to finish at the rim rather than assist-hunting as in the past. He has also exhibited what looks like a little smoother set shot from beyond the arc.
A key concern for Chicago is Rondo's fit with Dwyane Wade and Jimmy Butler, both of whom also need the ball in their hands to be effective and are poor spot-up shooters. The lack of spacing on the floor could exacerbate Rondo's penchant for turnovers; last season, he coughed it up on a career-worst 24.7 percent of all the possessions he used. Expect to see Rondo staggered with Dwyane Wade this season to reduce those concerns. Rondo could also be pushed for minutes by the newly acquired Michael Carter-Williams, especially if the Bulls struggle early and the season takes on a rebuilding feel.
We are less than two years removed from the Dallas Mavericks' acquiring Rondo as a purported defensive upgrade, but little evidence exists to indicate he has been a plus defender since his 2013 ACL tear. Rondo still shows flashes with his long arms, strength and anticipation, but dying on screens, losing shooters and transition lollygagging are more common from him at this point. He ranked 29th among point guards in defensive RPM for the porous Kings a year ago.
Dwyane Wade
Position: Guard
Experience: 13 years
Age: 34
Scouting report
+ All-time great slasher changing teams for the first time in his career at age 34
+ Had healthiest season in five years in 2015-16
+ Can still bring it on D only in rare spurts; defensive effort often problematic
Analysis
Wade's signing in Chicago was the most surprising free-agent exodus of the offseason, as he joins his hometown team after an inner-circle Hall of Fame career in Miami. The move was so surprising that even the Bulls were shocked when he accepted their $47 million "one-plus-one" offer. For much of the free-agent period, it was assumed that Wade was using Chicago and the Denver Nuggets to leverage a better deal with the Heat. Instead, Gar Forman & Co. found themselves dumping the salaries of newly acquired Jose Calderon (to the Lakers at the cost of two future second-rounders) and Mike Dunleavy (into a Cavaliers trade exception) to create salary-cap space to sign Wade.
Wade's 2015-16 outstripped all expectations. Perhaps the most surprising number was his 74 games played, a far cry from what was expected, given his age and chronic knee issues. Wade re-emerged as Miami's most ball-dominant player a season ago and finished the season by uncorking repeated clutch heroics in the playoffs to bury the Charlotte Hornets and keep things close against the Toronto Raptors. Some of the shake that made Wade perhaps the best pick-and-roll shooting guard in history remains, and he is able to get shots off against all but the best wing defenders. Wade has added a post game to take advantage of smaller players in recent years, and his pump fake continues to bedevil overeager defenders.
Even so, it must be noted that Wade's .517 true shooting percentage in the regular season was the worst of his career, and his minus-1.08 RPM ranked 38th among shooting guards. A key impediment on offense was Wade's nearly nonexistent (7-44) 3-point shooting. He isn't that bad a 3-point shooter; many of his 3s are tough, end-of-clock bailouts, and his 3-point renaissance in the playoffs and so far this preseason show at least some upside. Previous research by ESPN's Tom Haberstroh showed that Wade's propensity for "ghost cuts" along the baseline causes defenders to stick closer to him than the typical non-shooter.
Wade's adjustment to Chicago will go well beyond sub-freezing January temperatures. Wade's 41.7 percent usage in the clutch (when his team is ahead or behind by five or fewer points in the last five minutes of the game) ranked fifth in the NBA among players with more than 15 clutch games played, per NBA.com/Stats. By contrast, his Miami backcourt-mate, Goran Dragic, managed a mere 11.2 usage rate in the clutch. One expects Wade will share the ball more with Butler and Rondo, especially in the clutch, though SCHOENE foresees a similar overall usage rate to last year's 31.6 percent.
On defense, Wade has of course declined from his heyday in Miami's trapping scheme early in the Big Three era. Although he was able to summon a few throwback performances with his help defense and rotations in the series against the Hornets, on the whole Wade is now a subpar defender. He lacks the quickness and energy to chase his mark over screens, and failed attempts to draw fouls on offense devolve into pleas to the referees in lieu of getting back on D. Wade remains a force in the passing lanes, though his gambles for steals can cause odd-man advantages for the opposition in the half court.
Jimmy Butler
Position: Forward
Experience: 5 years
Age: 27
Scouting report
+ Versatile iso and pick-and-roll scorer will need to integrate game with other ball-dominant smalls
+ Radically improved ball skills the past two seasons; gets to the foul line
+ Among the league's best one-on-one wing defenders
Analysis
For those who wondered whether Butler's nearly unprecedented offensive breakout in 2014-15 was for real, he turned in an arguably better season last year. Butler added pick-and-roll playmaking to his mid-post isolation game, and "point Jimmy" put up a career-high 4.7 assists per 36 minutes. The uptick in usage (21.6 to 24.4 percent) resulted in a slight drop in true shooting percentage, but Butler remained solidly above average due to his ability to draw contact and get to the foul line.
Unfortunately, one area he was unable to improve was games played. For the third straight season, Butler played between 65 and 67 games, this time because of a sprained left knee.
The most interesting question for Butler is how he will be used this year. Butler operates best with the ball in his hands, as only 44 percent of his 2-pointers were assisted a year ago. Had the Bulls' offseason been different, we might have focused on whether he could maintain efficiency while vaulting his usage to the level of some of the league's true offensive superstars.
Instead, the acquisitions of Wade and Rondo might serve to highlight Butler's game off the ball -- for good or for ill. The Marquette product's 3-point shooting has vacillated between the high and low 30s the past four years, but for his career, he is a 32.8 percent shooter from deep on relatively low volume. Nevertheless, that makes Butler the best spot-up option of the Bulls' perimeter starters.
He is also the most efficient option of the Bulls' perimeter starters with the ball in his hands. It remains to be seen whether the Bulls can find space for Butler to operate, either in concert with Wade and Rondo or by staggering him away from them.
One advantage of a potentially lower usage rate could be a renewed focus on defense. Butler is the only player approximating a wing stopper in Chicago, though he slipped a bit last year as his offensive responsibilities increased and the Bulls' defense evaporated after Joakim Noah went down. But when Butler gets up for a matchup, he remains one of the best.
He is particularly effective as an individual stopper in isolation against the league's power wings. Point guards can give Butler a little more trouble; he is better getting into players' bodies one-on-one than tracking waterbugs around screens.
Taj Gibson
Position: Forward
Experience: 7 years
Age: 31
Scouting report
+ Old-school power forward will get on offensive glass but lacks 3-point range
+ Still solid on D, but athleticism has declined
+ High-character locker room influence with a warrior reputation
Analysis
The offseason trade of Derrick Rose leaves Gibson as the only player remaining from the Bulls' 2011 conference finals team. Now 31 and coming off ankle surgery in the summer of 2015, the Brooklyn native has declined from his should-have-been Sixth Man Award campaign in 2013-14. That season saw Gibson operate at times in the post (though never to pass) and post the best defensive RPM among power forwards averaging more than 25 minutes per game.
Gibson remains a solid defensive power forward, with his 7-foot-4 wingspan, but the unique athleticism that allowed him to both protect the rim and switch out on the perimeter has waned, and that resulted in a career-low block percentage and his ranking 20th at his position in DRPM.
On offense, Gibson provided similar numbers to the previous year, despite the offseason surgery, with a reliable if awkward midranger out to 20 feet and a solid 11.4 percent offensive rebound rate. Gibson no longer creates any of his own offense, though. His 14.6 usage rate (down from 23 percent two seasons ago) was a career low, as the Bulls abandoned the Gibson post-ups that characterized their offense-challenged teams of yore.
The game has moved away from traditional 4s of Gibson's ilk as he has aged, and that could make it more difficult for Hoiberg to find him minutes. A solid preseason has Gibson in the mix to start this season, but he fits much better on the second unit with more shooting around him. It remains to be seen whether Gibson is best paired with Robin Lopez or Cristiano Felicio.
He could also see time at backup center in more mobile units next to fellow power forwards Nikola Mirotic or Bobby Portis, though Gibson's weak defensive rebounding could limit such alignments. Regardless of his role, the Bulls can count on Gibson to maintain a positive presence in the locker room, where he is considered one of the higher-character players in the league.
Robin Lopez
Position: Center
Experience: 8 years
Age: 28
Scouting report
+ Lumbering traditional center whose boxouts free up the boards for others
+ Protects the rim when in position but can't leave paint vs. pick-and-rolls
+ Might terrorize mascots throughout the Central Division
Analysis
Lopez and what many consider his reasonable contract (three years, $41.4 million remaining) was the big return of the Derrick Rose trade with the Knicks. The true 7-footer typically provides steady if unspectacular play for about 27 minutes a night.
Lopez is one of the league's better centers on the offensive glass, and though his defensive rebound rates are subpar, his teams regularly rebound better with him on the court because he is so good at boxing out.
The Stanford product has never been explosive around the rim, but his hands are OK in the pick-and-roll. Lopez's teams rarely look for him to create offense, but with either hand, he can break out soft hooks that originate near his waist, usually on deep post-ups against mismatches. Lopez also possesses a reliable 15-footer spotting up, though he isn't quite facile enough to use his J in pick-and-pop situations.
On defense, Lopez is effective defending the rim when in position, and he holds opponents to a solid 45.8 percent around the rim. But fouls and matchup issues often keep his minutes under 30 per night. He can't really guard anyone outside of 15 feet, whether in pick-and-roll or spot-up situations, for fear of being blown by.
Much like the departed Pau Gasol, Lopez and his teams have struggled to generate turnovers defensively in part because his presence necessitates such conservative pick-and-roll coverages. Opponents can play Lopez off the floor by going small, especially at the end of games.
Reserves
Nikola Mirotic
Position: Forward
Experience: 2 years
Age: 25
Scouting report
+ Sharpshooter in Europe beginning to find 3-point range in the NBA
+ Displayed a less versatile offensive game in 2015-16
+ Unfairly maligned team defender; struggles one-on-one
Analysis
More playing time for the Spanish née Montenegrin sharpshooter was a major reason for optimism in Fred Hoiberg's system, but Mirotic struggled early in a difficult defensive pairing with Pau Gasol and couldn't find the range from downtown early in the season. After complications from an appendectomy resulted in 16 missed games and severe weight loss, 2015-16 appeared to be a lost season for Mirotic. But he returned to the lineup and hit 44.5 percent on 3s in 22 games after the All-Star Break, again sowing optimism for the upcoming season in Chicago.
Despite the shooting uptick, Mirotic proved less effective in his second season because he devolved into more of a 3-point specialist. In particular, his free throw rate plummeted by more than a third, as he drove less and the league (and its referees) grew used to his comical flopping on loose rebounds. Although Mirotic's floor-spacing at the 4 should prove critical for a team with so little shooting among the smalls, the addition of so many high-usage players bodes poorly for his attempts to rediversify his game.
Mirotic's defense frequently draws the ire of commentators, but there is little statistical evidence of these purported defensive struggles. He certainly can look awful in the wrong one-on-one matchup and is frequently overmatched trying to switch on the perimeter, but Mirotic is a solid team defender with an excellent steal rate for a big. He should be fine with a decent defensive center next to him.
Doug McDermott
Position: Guard
Experience: 2 years
Age: 24
Scouting report
+ Lived up to reputation as a 3-point shooter in 2015-16
+ Takes more 2s than you'd expect, with mixed results
+ Extremely limited defender with historically low rates of blocks and steals
Analysis
Although he is unlikely to live up to the draft night trade for the picks that became Jusuf Nurkic and Gary Harris, McDermott at least took a step toward being a rotation player in 2015-16. Most importantly, he started hitting from downtown, to the tune of 42.5 percent accuracy beyond the arc. He also proved one of the few Bulls able to effectively run Fred Hoiberg's system; he works hard off the ball and makes a quick decision to shoot or pass when he gets it.
To take the next step as an offensive player, McBuckets must either become more efficient inside the arc or concentrate more on 3s. His true shooting percentage was only a bit better than league average, despite his scalding shooting on 3s, because he took more than 35 percent of his shots on 2s away from the basket and shot a below-average 57.7 percent at the rim. McDermott was an outstanding post scorer in college, but he was not asked to create his own offense, despite his often being guarded by smaller defenders. As is the case with Mirotic, more diversity to McDermott's offensive game is unlikely because the Bulls have few other floor-spacing options.
What most sets McDermott apart from his Creighton brethren Kyle Korver is his utter lack of impact on defense. McDermott totaled a combined 20 steals and blocks in 1,861 minutes last year, continuing the trend from college. Although he improved at executing the system, he still plays with zero force defensively. As a result, offensive players can work to their spots with no fear of losing the ball. The Bulls try to hide McDermott in individual matchups, but he will forever be a target of small/small pick-and-rolls designed to force him onto better scorers. Overall, his -2.93 defensive RPM was a putrid 74th among small forwards.
Michael Carter-Williams
Position: PG
Experience: 3 years
Age: 25
Scouting report
+ Big, long point guard who can't shoot and struggles at rim but has nice floater
+ 25-year-old's offseason development has been hampered by injuries
+ Length an asset defensively; solid floor game
Analysis
The decline has been swift for the 2013 Rookie of the Year. In 18 months, Carter-Williams went from the centerpiece of a blockbuster deal involving Brandon Knight and a premium protected Lakers pick to being traded for fellow distressed asset Tony Snell. The main impediment to Carter-Williams' improvement has been the stagnation in his shooting, perhaps in part because shoulder and hip surgeries have severely curtailed his offseason work. In 54 games before a hip injury ended his season, MCW took fewer 3s than ever, as they comprised a mere 9.9 percent of his shot attempts.
Nevertheless, Carter-Williams has skills, including bullying smaller guards in the post and reasonable pick-and-roll play when opponents can't go under. But as with Philly and Milwaukee, the Bulls' lack of shooting appears to make for a poor fit offensively. Carter-Williams should have the inside track at backup point guard with his new team, but he might suffer because he shares his shooting weakness with many of the Bulls' other ball handlers and doesn't get guarded off the ball. He should be the best defender of point guards on the team, though, and he might be able to eat in the post against backup point guards, as the Bulls saw firsthand in the 2015 playoffs.
Defensively, Carter-Williams looked better, and he posted the 12th-best defensive RPM among point guards. Although he struggles with inattention at times, the Syracuse product has the length to lay off quicker players and still contest, and at 6-foot-6, he can switch better than most point guards. That size also makes him an effective shot-blocker for a point guard, and his steal rate has always been solid.
Cristiano Felicio
Position: PF
Experience: 24
Age: 1 year
Scouting report
+ Brazilian center came out of nowhere to show promise late last season
+ Quality finisher around the rim, has flashed occasional 3-point range at lower levels
+ Still learning NBA defense but can make up for inexperience with athleticism
Analysis
Felicio was never a hyped prospect, and he began the 2015-16 season with little pedigree. But he made great strides with his body and athleticism since I first saw him at the 2014 Adidas Eurocamp, evolving from a pudgy power forward to a solid athlete at center. Desperate for more pop at the position, coach Fred Wiberg turned to Felicio at the tail end of the Bulls' abortive playoff push and found him surprisingly effective. Felicio even deservedly closed a few games over Pau Gasol down the stretch, and he finished the season with a 17.6 PER in 321 minutes. He followed that performance with an efficient turn at the NBA Summer League, as the Bulls won the championship in Vegas.
On offense, Felicio provides effective finishing on pick-and-rolls and dump-offs. Although we haven't seen it at the NBA level, the Brazilian looked comfortable and went 4-of-10 on 3s in four D-League appearances. Felicio is more of a work in progress on D, as he can struggle with fouls and execution despite his physical tools. His mobility is above average for a center if he can harness it with technique. Despite his inexperience, SCHOENE projects Felicio, at age 24, as only slightly below average this season.
Jerian Grant
Position: Guard
Experience: 1 year
Age: 24
Scouting report
+ Above-average athleticism, size and wingspan for a point guard
+ Inability to shoot limits his offensive game
+ Has the tools to emerge as a quality defensive option
Analysis
Because he plays for the Bulls, you've already guessed that Grant's biggest limitation is shooting. Teams can go under all day on the pick-and-roll and don't need to guard him spotting up, in light of his 22-for-100 performance from downtown a year ago. He also struggled to finish at the rim and hit only 52.1 percent in the restricted area, despite his ability to uncork the occasional dunk off one foot. His .479 true shooting percentage was well below the league average for his position.
Nevertheless, Grant looks the part of a rotation point guard at times, as he threw some sweet pick-and-roll passes in summer league and used his athleticism on the ball defensively. However, given that he is already 24 after a four-year stint at Notre Dame, it appears his ceiling is more quality backup than starter.
Although the Bulls purportedly viewed Grant as an important part of the Rose trade, he faces stiff competition for minutes at backup point guard, with the newly acquired Carter-Williams, Denzel Valentine, Isaiah Canaan, and Spencer Dinwiddie also in the mix.
Bobby Portis
Position: PF
Experience: 1 year
Age: 21
Scouting report
+ Has shooting talent but jacked too many long 2s
+ Plays hard and runs the floor, but a limited athlete laterally and vertically
+ Positioning on D and shot-selection on O need work
Analysis
After an excellent summer league and some hot shooting nights early in the season, calls emerged for Portis to play more, despite the Bulls' ostensibly loaded frontcourt. Portis wasn't ready on defense. He really struggled to deny penetration on the perimeter and proved too ground-bound to offer much as a rim-protector. Worse (as with many rookies), he struggled to execute the defensive system. Nevertheless, injuries eventually necessitated that Portis play 1,102 minutes.
Offensively, he proved elite at running the floor and showed off a solid touch for his age on jumpers. He flashed good touch on a righty jump hook in the post, though he goes left shoulder every time at this point. Unfortunately, Portis had a nasty habit of jacking a midranger every time he touched it, and his 20.7 usage rate was far too high for a support player with a .469 true shooting percentage. More than 55 percent of his shots were 2s away from the basket. If he can turn those into 3s (a good possibility, given his summer league performance) and maintain his solid work on the offensive glass, Portis could prove a valuable offensive player. However, even assuming such strides, he will have to improve his work on the perimeter defensively to become a quality rotation piece.
Denzel Valentine
Position: Shooting guard
Experience: Rookie
Age: 22
Scouting report
+ 6-foot-6 wing has excellent ball skills and shooting ability for his size
+ Four-year senior comes out with a reputation as a winner
+ Will have to overcome athletic limitations on both ends
Analysis
Valentine's combination of shooting and playmaking at 6-foot-6 enticed the Bulls with the last pick of the lottery, despite rumored concerns about his knees. Chicago will try to make him its latest senior success story. The Michigan State product projects as an above-average NBA 3-point shooter out of the gate, and he possesses a nice floater game off the pick-and-roll. In college, Valentine showed an ability to make all of the passes coming off screens.
His weaknesses stem from his physical profile, as Valentine lacks pop on either axis. That limits his ability to get to the rim and finish or draw fouls. He struggles to beat his man one-on-one without a screen, and that renders Valentine vulnerable to switching defenses. His athletic limitations make it difficult for him to deploy that same strategy on the other end, though Valentine was a more effective team defender in Coach Tom Izzo's system at MSU.
The role for Valentine is unclear at first blush. At first, his clearest path to minutes might be as a de facto backup point guard, though he should be paired with someone who can guard the position on the other end. However, the recent acquisition of Michael Carter-Williams as a backup point complicates that path. A sprained ankle in camp has also retarded Valentine's efforts to carve out an early-season role.
Isaiah Canaan
Position: Guard
Experience: 3 years
Age: 25
Scouting report
+ Pretty versatile, as long as he's shooting a 3; gets hot from downtown
+ Struggled mightily inside the arc, had to play too big an offensive role in Philly
+ Limited length and tools defensively
Analysis
Although it seems wishful thinking that Canaan could contribute after the woeful Sixers declined to make him a restricted free agent by tendering a qualifying offer, his 3-point shooting as the nominal point guard superficially provides a solid fit when Dwyane Wade runs the show on the second unit. Canaan's ability to fill it up from deep would be a lot more valuable if he could adequately guard opposing point guards. Instead, he struggles to get through screens and lacks the length to bother his mark. Canaan was 71st among point guards in defensive RPM and will likely be limited to deep reserve roles unless he improves on that end.
Canaan needs to play next to a lead ball handler because he struggles when asked to do more than shoot 3s. Indeed, he shot worse inside the arc (.354) than from downtown (.363), despite limiting 2s to only 33 percent of his attempts. At age 25, Canaan hasn't shown much more ceiling to improve, but the hope is that he can prove more efficient in a smaller role.
Spencer Dinwiddie
Position: Guard
Experience: 2 years
Age: 23
Scouting report
+ Tall point guard looking for something to hang his hat on at NBA level
+ Decent handle and vision but hasn't been able to score efficiently from anywhere on the court
+ Non-guaranteed contract; projects as 15th man
Analysis
Chicago acquired Dinwiddie in a swap for Cameron Bairstow prior to the draft, after he proved unable to seize the opportunity for minutes amid an unsettled backup point guard situation in Detroit. The Bulls later waived him to clear a few hundred thousand dollars in cap space, presumably pursuant to an agreement to re-sign him on a two-year deal using the minimum exception following the conclusion of free-agent business. Dinwiddie's $400,000 guarantee does not go into effect until Nov. 1, per BasketballInsiders.com, but he figures to make the team as the 15th man.
Dinwiddie's main appeal is his size for the point guard position, as he is 6-foot-6. Beyond that, it proves difficult to enumerate any clear strengths of his game. The Colorado product is more smooth than explosive, with decent but not exceptional vision. Although not a bad shooter by the eye test, he is 13-of-75 on 3s in his nascent NBA career and lacks the pop to get to the rim.
On defense, the story is much the same, as Dinwiddie offers size for the position, but not much else stands out. With the acquisition of Carter-Williams, Dinwiddie's path to playing time is narrow indeed.
Paul Zipser
Position: Forward
Experience: Rookie
Age: 22
Scouting report
+ 22-year-old has ample experience in Europe for Bayern Munich and German national team
+ Bulls will look to develop him into a 3-point-shooting combo forward
Analysis
Zipser's potential as a combo forward inspired the Bulls to guarantee the first two years of the German's contract after they made him the 48th pick. That guarantee includes $750,000 for 2016-17, more than $200,000 more than the rookie minimum. In exchange, Chicago has Zipser for the minimum through 2019-20, if he pans out.
SCHOENE sees Zipser as an above average 3-point shooter, based on his European performance for Bayern Munich. He likes to cut and finish at the rim off one foot, and he flashed a decent pull-up game against reserves in preseason. Still, one imagines his ultimate path to success in the league will be as a lower-usage play-finisher with the defensive versatility to guard either forward position.