How big is the Reggie Jackson injury for the Pistons? Are they contenders in the East?
Our NBA Insiders debate Detroit's 2016-17 season.
1. For the Pistons, how big a blow is the injury to Reggie Jackson?
Dave McMenamin, ESPN.com: Asked about the Cavs' biggest competition in the East, the first team that came out of coach Ty Lue's mouth was Detroit. Going the first couple of months without Jackson could actually prepare Ish Smith -- a potential pick for the Most Improved Player award this season considering the talent he gets to play with -- for the long term.
Brian Windhorst, ESPN.com: Don't know yet -- how's his knee going to feel in six weeks? No one knows. Ish Smith is the definition of a journeyman, but Stan Van Gundy has a way of pulling the best out of players. They're really going to need their wings to pick up the scoring slack.
Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Insider: Assuming he's back in the expected time frame of eight weeks or so, it shouldn't cripple Detroit's playoff chances, if only because the East appears to be pretty weak after the top six or seven spots. Ish Smith is on par with Jackson as a playmaker and they have wings in Marcus Morris and Stanley Johnson who could take on more playmaking responsibility.
I worry that teams can sag off Smith in 1-5 pick-and-rolls with Andre Drummond, and overall a no-Jackson lineup seems woefully short on shot creation. The Pistons might limp out of the gate, so Jackson needs to get healthy ASAP.
Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: It will make it significantly tougher to grab homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Before the injury was announced, many saw the Pistons as the fourth-best team in the East. Without Jackson, the team is lacking good shot creators.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: Zach Lowe has been making the point that Jackson's injury could be more problematic than statistical projections imply (updating projections based on ESPN's real plus-minus had it costing them about a win) and that feels valid. Jackson is so central to what the Pistons do, and they're so thin behind backup Ish Smith, that it could hamper the start of a promising season.
2. Other than Jackson's injury, what is the biggest issue facing the Pistons this season?
McMenamin: What to do with Andre Drummond at the end of the game. Every time the Pistons find themselves in a close game, Drummond's free-throw ineptitude threatens to derail both his confidence and the team's confidence in him as the Pistons see the game they worked so hard to win for three-plus quarters turn into a spectacle.
Doolittle: There just isn't enough shooting on the roster. Even with second-chance shots and good ball protection, I don't see enough shot-makers to get the Pistons into the upper half of the league offensively, so they'll have to win with defense and board dominance.
Engelmann: Andre Drummond's shortcomings at the stripe are a gigantic problem. Last season's 35.5 percent shooting on nearly 600 free-throw attempts were a sad, historic milestone. Not only are the Pistons scoring a below average number of points per possession when Drummond gets two free throws, opponent teams can stop the Pistons' offensive rhythm by resorting to hack-a-Drummond.
Windhorst: The hacking rules didn't change much. Opponents can still force Detroit's best player off the floor if they really want to for most of the fourth quarter. It's a real disadvantage. The Pistons were a loser in Adam Silver's inability to force more change.
Pelton: Lack of outside shooting. My SCHOENE projections have Detroit shooting 33.0 percent as a team from 3-point range, good for 27th in the league. In an offense that relies heavily on spacing the floor, that's a concern.
3. What is the biggest source of hope for the Pistons this season?
Doolittle: Sure, free throws are still a major problem for Drummond, but otherwise he looks poised for a big season. He has been playing volleyball with himself on the offensive glass during the preseason, averaging 11 offensive boards per 48 minutes. And he's averaging 27 boards overall per 48. Twenty-seven!
Pelton: The effectiveness of their starting lineup. The Pistons had a plus-3.2 net rating with their current starters on the floor last season. And the additions of Smith and Boban Marjanovic, along with the development of second-year wing Stanley Johnson, should help upgrade their weaker reserve lineups.
Windhorst: It would be huge for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope or Stanley Johnson to take a leap forward and develop some "go-to" qualities. Both have shown nice potential but Detroit needs to develop another cornerstone player they can count on every night.
Engelmann: I think Stanley Johnson and especially Kentavious Caldwell-Pope have the potential to develop into elite wing defenders, in a similar mold to Tony Allen. A top-5 ranking in defensive efficiency seems within Detroit's grasp.
McMenamin: Stanley Johnson. The way teams make leaps from playoff qualifier to contender status is when their players go from promising to potent (in recent years just look at Golden State, Toronto and Oklahoma City). If Johnson can follow the Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler paths to true two-way stardom, the Pistons become that much more dynamic.
4. What trade would make the most sense for the Pistons?
McMenamin: Detroit could use a knock-down shooter. It is deep at the wing position, but outside of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, which one of those guys can you truly rely on for a triple? Prying someone like Mike Scott from Atlanta or Mirza Teletovic from Phoenix would make the Drummond-Jackson pick-and-roll an even more deadly play, providing a kick-out option.
Doolittle: Caldwell-Pope presents a real dilemma for Stan Van Gundy. He's easily their top perimeter defender, but it's uncertain whether Detroit should commit to him with an extension now -- and for how much. If he were either good with the ball in his hands or dependable as a shooter, it would be different. I see few signs he's going to become above average in either area.
I think if you can find a youngish wing who can shoot and is at least an average defender, you've got to consider a deal. Or maybe you address another need and turn the position over to Stanley Johnson.
Windhorst: Stan makes great trades; they've won three of them in the last two years, in my opinion, getting Jackson, Tobias Harris and Marcus Morris. They could use a two-way wing player. Then again, couldn't almost everyone? They're hoping they have that guy on their roster already.
Engelmann: The Pistons are relatively young and have a very good coach in Van Gundy, so they can wait and hope for development from within. A star would be great to have, but I don't see the Pistons putting together an enticing package.
Pelton: I could see Detroit in the market for a backup wing who can space the floor nearing the trade deadline, but for now I think it makes more sense to give youngsters Reggie Bullock and Darrun Hilliard the first crack at those minutes so the Pistons can see what they have.
5. Fact or Fiction: The Pistons will make the Eastern Conference final four.
Doolittle: Fact. The conference looks weak and the Pistons have been together for a while now as a group. They made the playoffs last season and project in that Nos. 4-5 range. A first-round win seems like a logical step, even if the steps after that will be much more difficult.
Engelmann: It's 50/50. Before the Jackson injury my projections had the Pistons as the fourth-best team in the East, but not by much. With Drummond's FT troubles, it's hard to see the Pistons winning a playoff series without homecourt advantage -- so grabbing that fourth spot appears necessary.
Windhorst: Fact, I guess. I might say that about six or seven teams in East right now. They played the Cavs tough in the first round last year. They aren't that far away.
McMenamin: Fiction. Cleveland and Toronto are still the class of the East, with Boston, Atlanta and Indiana a step below that. Detroit is right there with Charlotte, Washington and New York as a team that wouldn't surprise you if they put it together for a solid season but also wouldn't surprise you if they were a first-round flameout.
Pelton: Faction. At full strength, I think the Pistons are the fourth-best team in the East, and perhaps comfortably so. But Jackson's injury could easily cost them a top-four seed and force them to win a series without the benefit of home-court advantage to reach the second round.