Will Anthony Davis become an MVP candidate and help the New Orleans Pelicans make the playoffs? What trades should they make?
Our NBA Insiders preview New Orleans' 2016-17 season.
1. Fact or Fiction: Anthony Davis will return to All-NBA, MVP-contender status this season.
Amin Elhassan, ESPN Insider: Pass. Davis' success is almost wholly dependent on his health, so whether he will have a dominant season is, in a sense, out of his control. Then again, based on what we know about the Pelicans' training staff, health probably isn't as hard to predict as it seems.
Tom Haberstroh, ESPN Insider: Fiction. Honestly, if you asked me this a week ago, I would have answered differently. But mix in a Grade 2 ankle sprain with his injury history, and I can't be certain he is going to be healthy enough to get in that mix. When fully healthy, only a few players are at his level.
Justin Verrier, ESPN.com: Fact-ish. What led to a mass exodus on the Brow bandwagon seems fixable through some combination of better-fitting teammates, altered utilization, renewed effort and improved health -- the latter of which is hard to predict, given his Operation-level spread to date. Alas, the Pelicans' high bar probably resides somewhere around .500, making re-appreciation, not a full-on return, the likelier result.
Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: Fiction. If last season was any indication, Alvin Gentry does not seem like the right coach to mold Davis into an MVP contender. Further, Davis rarely seems full healthy. He ha missed a total of 68 games the past four seasons with a wide variety of injuries, and the recent ankle sprain showed that this streak might continue. When he tries to play through those injuries, his performance naturally suffers.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: Faction. All-NBA consideration is certainly possible, and is perhaps even likely if he can stay healthy. I don't see the Pelicans being good enough for Davis to be in MVP consideration. Even finishing with as many wins as 2014-15, when Davis was fifth in the voting, seems like a longshot.
2. Other than The Brow, what's the biggest source of hope for the Pelicans this season?
Haberstroh: Rookie Buddy Hield has looked pretty good this preseason. He should, given that he is older than Nerlens Noel. But they'll desperately need a 3-point shooter with Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson gone and Jrue Holiday tending to family. After an iffy summer league, it's good to see Hield hold his own in preseason.
Elhassan: Buddy Hield? He gives this roster some much-needed shooting -- and another young talent to pin hopes to. But overall, this roster doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. Put bluntly, they are failing Davis. It is reminiscent of how the Timberwolves failed to surround Kevin Garnett with a good supporting cast post-2004, or Cleveland with LeBron James in his first stint.
Verrier: An offseason facelift, transitioning from high-scoring holdovers to scrappy 3-and-D types. Davis evoked Boston as an aspiration ... which is curious, considering Boston has been laser-focused on obtaining a player like Davis. But such a shift figures to provide a needed base for sustainability.
Also: rookies! For the first time in his pro career, Davis will play next to someone -- two someones, even -- younger than him.
Engelmann: That Buddy Hield quickly develops into a star. He has recorded decent stats in preseason, and he has a sweet stroke, at least. It's also encouraging that his turnover numbers are OK, though he still needs to work on his passing game.
Pelton: Improved depth. By buying bulk in free agency, the Pelicans have enough rotation-caliber talent on the roster to survive the absence of Tyreke Evans, Jrue Holiday and Quincy Pondexter, whereas similar injuries submarined their 2015-16 campaign entirely.
3. What is the biggest issue facing the Pelicans this season?
Pelton: A glaring lack of above-average talent. Before Holiday returns, who is the second-best player on the team after Davis? It might be Solomon Hill, which is a scary possibility, given that Hill was in and out of the Indiana Pacers' rotation just last season.
Engelmann: Injuries. Between Davis' new ankle injury, Tyreke Evans' knee injury and Jrue Holiday's absence due to his wife's health (in addition to his own leg issues), the Pelicans might be missing three starters when the season begins. This is, unfortunately, in line with what unfolded last season, so one has to wonder when that injury luck will turn.
Haberstroh: Same thing as last season: availability. Tyreke Evans suffered a blood clot in February after knee surgery, Anthony Davis already sprained his ankle, Terrence Jones and E'Twaun Moore are two other rotation players battling injury, Jrue Holiday is justifiably taking some personal time to be with his ailing wife. It's just one thing after another.
Elhassan: With the unavailability of Holiday, point guard is extremely thin. Langston Galloway is a solid backup as a defender and shot-maker, but he isn't really a setup man, and the other point guards -- Tim Frazier, Quinn Cook (who probably won't make the team) -- are inexperienced. That means much of the playmaking will fall upon the dynamic duo of Lance Stephenson and Evans, neither of whom are renowned for their decision making.
Verrier: Fixing the defense without sacrificing too much offense. The Pelicans are hopeful that the hard workers they added can drag the defense out of the bottom third of the league for the first time in the Davis era, but without Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon -- and no Jrue Holiday, Tyreke Evans and Quincy Pondexter to start the season -- do they have enough playmaking and reliable non-Davis options to keep up?
4. What trade would make the most sense for the Pelicans?
Haberstroh: It's hard to see which players, if any, have significant value beyond Anthony Davis. If injuries continue to pile up, they might have to cut bait on Evans and Holiday for some long-term assets. Don't worry: Davis doesn't become a free agent until 2020. This team can survive another youth movement.
Verrier: Anything that unclogs the paint, the cap sheet and the roster crunch. Absent a Hail Mary with Omer Asik, swapping Alexis Ajinca, who is miscast on an Alvin Gentry team, for any asset (future second?) would free up a spot to keep Lance Stephenson or sign another wing who shakes free. They could then waive Alonzo Gee and find a backup center for the minimum.
Engelmann: I'd probably make everyone available except Davis and maybe Hield. The Pelicans aren't making the playoffs, so I'd like to see them deal some veterans for draft picks. In terms of rebuilding, having Davis, Hield, their own (presumably high) draft pick and another one or two first-rounders from other teams seems like a better place to start next season.
Elhassan: Beyond the need at point guard? I would say getting more athletic on the frontline or adding stretch bigs. The idea that Davis is both the designated athletic roll man and the stretch big is indicative of how poorly the Pelicans have filled out this roster.
Pelton: Trading Tyreke Evans for any value would make sense. Evans is in the last year of his contract and struggled in Alvin Gentry's offense last season, so he doesn't seem to fit in New Orleans. However, his persistent knee injuries might have undermined the trade value he once had.
5. Fact or Fiction: The Pelicans are a playoff team.
Elhassan: Fiction. Barring roster overhaul, this team is not equipped to beat out the other teams vying for the last two spots in the Western Conference. There isn't enough shooting or playmaking to effectively run Alvin Gentry's system, and the fit between the pieces they do have isn't that great.
Verrier: Fiction. It will be better -- because, really, how could it get worse? -- but it's hard to see anything akin to 2015 offseason-level expectations, especially with three players out to start the season. Ownership wants a winner to sell, but as general manager Dell Demps recently admitted, this will be a process. The hope is that the former doesn't force an early abandonment of the latter.
Haberstroh: Fiction. Again, if they had a clean bill of health, they could get there on the shoulders of The Brow's greatness. But at this point, this is just a weird group of players looking to rejuvenate their careers. Not enough in the West.
Engelmann: Fiction. The Pelicans are dealing with too many injuries to a roster that wasn't great to begin with. They won't be sniffing the top seven, and the race for the eighth seed is filled with teams that have better experience, talent and/or health.
Pelton: Fiction. I'd put New Orleans in the mix for the last playoff spot or two in the West, but unless Holiday is able to return more quickly than expected or Buddy Hield proves an instant contributor, I don't see the Pelicans among the conference's top eight teams.