Will the Mavericks make the playoffs? What can they expect from Harrison Barnes? And what trades should they make?
Our NBA Insiders debate the 2016-17 season for Dallas.
1. What's your take on the acquisition of max free agent Harrison Barnes?
Amin Elhassan, ESPN Insider: I believe it was the early 21st century troubadour Jason "Jadakiss" Phillips who once posited the seminal question: "Why?"
I get it: The cap explosion means there was an abundance of funds and inflated deals. I get it: The Mavs were trying to fill a need for youth and upside. I get it: Rick Carlisle has consistently shown an ability to get more out of players than they displayed in previous stops.
But this might be one of the three worst deals of the summer. Barnes is a limited offensive player who has his difficulties defensively against quicker opponents. Even a max deal prorated to the old cap would be an overpay.
Tom Haberstroh, ESPN Insider: Seems like an emotional move to me after losing out on DeAndre Jordan last summer. From my perspective, it was maybe the most puzzling big contract this offseason. There's almost no evidence -- beyond being the No. 1 recruit out of high school in Iowa -- that he can be a go-to star. I'd rather save the money and not get my hopes up.
Tim MacMahon, ESPN.com: For some reason, the Mavs ignored my advice to re-sign Chandler Parsons. Then again, I didn't think he'd still be recovering from March knee surgery as the regular season nears.
Barnes definitely won't be a bargain, but the Mavs are better with him now and in the post-Dirk future than they'd be without him. They decided a solid starter with a chance to improve is worth a huge investment.
Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: I didn't think Parsons was the answer, but I certainly don't think Barnes is the answer either. Barnes' impact doesn't even come close to that of his old teammates, and if the Mavs think he can develop into a star -- he is getting star money -- I'm fairly certain they're mistaken.
Expect his shooting percentages to drop significantly with Steph Curry not around to draw double-teams.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: The Mavericks could have done worse with their money this summer. At least Barnes is young enough to improve and has complementary skills that ensure he won't be a liability.
Nonetheless, the idea that Barnes can improve in a larger role isn't consistent with how he played off the bench in Golden State during Mark Jackson's last season at the helm.
2. What is the biggest issue facing the Mavericks this season?
MacMahon: Who is going to create offensively? J.J. Barea is by far their best off-the-dribble threat, and he's a 32-year-old backup. It's expecting way too much to think Barnes will blossom immediately into a go-to guy. Carlisle's brilliance and big man Andrew Bogut's creative, skilled passing will help mitigate this issue, but it's a concern for the Mavs.
Elhassan: A term we used to kick about when I was a member of the Suns front office was whether a roster had a high LOFT factor (Lack Of [Expletive] Talent). The Mavs' roster has a LOFT factor through the roof.
Many of their best players are far past their primes, and their younger guys are low-ceiling prospects who look like good role players at best. This was a roster built to save face, not put itself in a position for short- or long-term success.
Haberstroh: Health. The medical team should prepare to work overtime keeping these guys on the floor. There are injury red flags all across the roster from Deron Williams to Bogut to a 38-year-old Dirk Nowitzki. I'd throw Wes Matthews in the mix but he appears to be a superhero after coming back early from ripping his Achilles.
Engelmann: Injury risk. Except for Barnes and Nowitzki -- who's 38 now -- the Mavs' starters have extensive injury histories. The Mavs don't have a lot of quality depth, so if a starter gets hurt -- or held out of back-to-backs -- there'll be a significant drop-off.
Pelton: Defense at the point of attack. Dallas has upgraded elsewhere with Barnes and Bogut but remains weak at point guard with Williams backed up by Barea and Seth Curry. How well Carlisle can game plan around this weakness will go a long way toward determining whether the Mavericks make the playoffs.
3. What's the biggest source of hope for the Mavs this season?
Pelton: Nowitzki and Carlisle are still both in Dallas. Beyond that, the possibility of better wing health with Barnes replacing Parsons and Matthews a year removed from his ruptured Achilles. Add in Justin Anderson's development and this could be a deep group.
Engelmann: The Mavs have to hope Barnes starts playing at a level close to what his salary would suggest. I don't see it happening, and the fact that he's shooting 8-for-35 in preseason is not an encouraging sign, but it's not impossible.
MacMahon: Same as it ever was: Nowitzki is an all-time great and Carlisle is one of the league's premier coaches. Since the 2011 title team was stripped down, they've consistently dragged so-so supporting casts into the playoffs, with the lone exception the season that Nowitzki missed two months because of knee surgery. No reason to rule out them doing it again.
Elhassan: Watching Carlisle turn in another virtuoso performance in making chicken salad out of chicken you-know-what? Marveling at how much longer Dirk can remain a highly efficient scorer?
Haberstroh: They might have something in Seth Curry. Not an MVP like his older brother, but he sneakily thrived in George Karl's up-tempo offense last season, averaging 16.4 points and 5.3 assists with 48.9 percent shooting from deep last April. On a two-year, $6 million contract, this has the chance to be the steal of the summer.
4. What trade would make the most sense for the Mavs?
MacMahon: If the Kings finally decide to deal DeMarcus Cousins, the Mavs would bid aggressively with every non-German on the roster available. Short of landing a star in his prime, however, the Mavs absolutely should not entertain the thought of trading a future first-round pick. Mark Cuban, burned by the disastrous deals for Lamar Odom and Rajon Rondo, has said as much himself.
Haberstroh: If things go south early, I hope we get to see Nowitzki moved to a championship contender. Sure, you'd like to see him be a Mav all the way through, but I think you'd rather see him be happy than limp around for a 40-win team. The Spurs would be interesting if they feel like they want to change directions from LaMarcus Aldridge.
Engelmann: From a pure basketball standpoint, trading Nowitzki makes some sense. As long as he's playing for the Mavs they won't be bad enough to get a high pick, but they're obviously not good enough to make a deep playoff run. So, for as long as they keep him they'll remain in no man's land.
Elhassan: A miracle. But absent that, point guard is the biggest area of need, as well as some athleticism in the frontcourt. Dallas is in dire need of an above-the-rim athlete at the 4 or 5 slot who is taller than 6-foot-9.
Pelton: I honestly don't see a sensible trade for the Mavericks right now. Let's see how this new-look roster fits together before starting to consider one.
5. Fact or fiction: The Mavs are a playoff team.
Elhassan: Fiction. Carlisle will have them competing through the stretch, as he did last year when they managed to sneak in, but I think they fall short this season, especially given how tight the race for the last two spots will be.
Haberstroh: Fiction. Just too many health question marks for me, and not enough firepower behind Nowitzki. There are some interesting pieces like Curry, Salah Mejri and Anderson, but there's not enough reliability here in a tough Western Conference field.
MacMahon: Fact. As long as Nowitzki is healthy and launching one-foot fadeaways with Carlisle coaching, it's hard to bet against the Mavs making the playoffs. Their preseason projections were ugly last season, but the Mavs managed to steal the sixth seed despite all sorts of medical issues. I'll bet on another one-and-done postseason cameo for Dallas.
Engelmann: I expect the Mavs, Wolves and Nuggets to fight over the eighth playoff spot. The Mavs have the most experience of those three, which could help them in close games. That said, it would be sad to see Nowitzki take what will undoubtedly be a beating from the Warriors in what might be -- given the direction the Mavs are moving -- his last playoff series.
Pelton: Fiction. I certainly wouldn't be surprised if Dallas makes the playoffs, but I see it as less than a 50-50 proposition. While Carlisle and Nowitzki deserve the benefit of the doubt given the ability to take a revolving series of rosters to the playoffs, I don't think this year's group is as talented as past ones and I think there are plenty of playoff contenders in the West.