Are the Miami Heat a playoff team? Would they be better off in the lottery? And what moves should they make this season?
Our NBA Insiders debate the 2016-17 season for Miami.
1. What's your take on the Chris Bosh situation?
Amin Elhassan, ESPN Insider: It's pretty clear from a basketball standpoint that Bosh's situation goes far beyond the run-of-the-mill career-ending conditions. Staying patient with a player recovering from a knee injury does not carry the same life-or-death implications as what Bosh is facing, so I have no problem with how Miami has handled his situation -- even as Bosh himself maintains a level of skepticism about the motives of his employer.
On a personal level, while I understand Bosh's desire to continue to compete (particularly when considering he's still technically in the prime of his career), he's too blessed an individual in terms of family, wealth and interests outside of basketball to risk his life for this sport.
Tom Haberstroh, ESPN Insider: This is a heartbreaking story on a human level, forget the basketball lens. Bosh, like any normal person, desperately wants to continue doing what he loves and excels at, but ultimately health comes first. The Heat will surely miss the future Hall of Famer, on and off the court.
Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Insider: The basketball part of it is tough because it seemed like Bosh might have a couple of big statistical seasons in him. Miami is in a difficult spot now even with the option of getting a cap exclusion for Bosh in February. The cap space is good, but are guys going to flock to play with Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside? As for Bosh, it's got to be tough to be sidelined by something so dangerous yet largely invisible. I just hope he listens to his doctors.
Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: I certainly see Pat Riley's side to it. If Bosh isn't cleared by doctors and they think it's dangerous for him to play, he really shouldn't. It's obviously a gigantic blow to the Heat's playoff chances -- Bosh was one of the better power forwards and a perfect fit next to Hassan Whiteside -- but Bosh's health is simply more important.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: Despite his desire to return, I don't think the Heat were ever planning on Bosh playing this season -- and understandably so, given the risk to his health. So I don't think making that semi-official really changes much from Miami's perspective. It also doesn't give the Heat the depth to withstand the loss of Bosh in the wake of several defections in free agency.
2. Besides the status of Bosh, what is the biggest issue facing the Heat this season?
Haberstroh: They're paper thin. Outside of Dragic and Whiteside, the rest of the Heat roster is filled with guys who have been fighting for NBA minutes or roster spots over the past calendar year. If Whiteside or Dragic falters or gets hurt, the Heat need to press the tank button.
Engelmann: Shot creation and offensive efficiency. The Heat will be giving minutes to many players well below average at creating their own shot (including Justise Winslow, Josh Richardson) and/or inefficient (including Dion Waiters, Beno Udrih). Also, Whiteside needs to snap out of "NBA2K mode" and try to help his team win, instead of just collecting good box score stats.
Elhassan: Short answer? Talent. This team isn't very good. Long answer? Two major areas of concern will be perimeter shooting and the rotation at power forward. The Heat are incredibly thin, with a list of also-rans masquerading at the 4 spot, but then again, they've carved a niche for themselves as the land of reclamation projects, so perhaps they feel they can get 48 solid minutes out of Derrick Williams, James Johnson and Josh McRoberts.
Doolittle: Whiteside has his big contract and he's now the franchise player for a high-profile NBA team. Determining if that's going to work and if the young guys -- Josh Richardson, Justise Winslow and Tyler Johnson -- can coalesce into a promising core around him is what this season is all about. Maybe it works, Whiteside and Dragic play like All-Stars and the kids go to another level. Suddenly the Heat's available cap space could become more of an attraction.
Pelton: The lack of two-way role players. Erik Spoelstra can play shooters like Luke Babbitt and Wayne Ellington to space the floor or better defenders like James Johnson and Justise Winslow. Outside of the team's core, however, Miami has few players who are better than adequate at both ends of the court.
3. What's the biggest source of hope for the Heat this season?
Elhassan: The combo of Dragic and Whiteside as a pick-and-roll duo, combined with the maturation of young players like Winslow, Johnson and Richardson will make this team competitive on some nights. On a more morbid level, the prospect of clearing Bosh's money off the books will make Miami free agency threats once again this summer.
Pelton: Besides having this year's first-round pick? The development of second-year players Winslow and Josh Richardson, who played key minutes in the postseason earlier this year. Their modest contracts will help the Heat build around whatever players they can add in free agency next summer.
Engelmann: The Heat can hope Whiteside finally "gets it." So far in his career, Whiteside's been essentially channeling his inner JaVale McGee, with lots of highlight blocks and dunks at the sacrifice of good team basketball. For starters, Whiteside needs to put more focus into being in better defensive position and stop chasing after every possible block.
Doolittle: Even with Wade leaving, the top-to-bottom organizational continuity is what marks the Heat as such a model franchise. Erik Spoelstra is a great coach and while this promises to be a transitional season, Miami is one franchise for which the term "transitional" is not a euphemism for "bad." This can be a bridge season from one great era to another.
Haberstroh: The 2017 draft. That first-round pick remains fully in the Heat's possession, no matter where they finish this season. That can't be said for 2018, which could change hands as a result of the Phoenix trade for Dragic (top-seven protected in 2018, unprotected in 2019). In a season where tanking isn't en vogue, the Heat could sink fast. And that may be best long-term.
4. What trade would make the most sense for the Heat?
Haberstroh: Something like Dragic and McRoberts for Rudy Gay, Willie Cauley-Stein and a 2020 first-rounder. The Kings, who employ a disgruntled starter in Gay, desperately need a point guard and the Heat could use Hassan Whiteside insurance up front.
Doolittle: Since the Heat's perimeter defense looks promising and they have Whiteside in the middle, this is a team that can really favor offense at the power forward position. I don't know how they swing it, but I could see Danilo Gallinari as a great fit in Miami. But if that doesn't work out, that's the model of player they can pursue going forward.
Elhassan: Let me be blunt -- ain't no trade helping this team. Due to pick obligations, the draft pick inventory for the Heat is pretty bare, making an asset haul worth attracting real talent difficult to put together. On the other hand, Miami does have a couple of players they could deal for picks, but not of the highest caliber of return. Basically, status quo might be the best plan of action here.
Engelmann: The Heat are in an awful situation, almost as bad as Brooklyn's: projected to miss playoffs and owing two future, essentially unprotected, first-round draft picks (to Phoenix). They should be in "win now" mode, but it's tough to find a trade that puts them back in the playoffs.
Pelton: Ask me again on Dec. 15. By then, when free agents are eligible to be traded, we'll know whether Miami can reasonably contend for a playoff spot or should consider trading Dragic to tear down this season and try to clear cap space for next summer.
5. Fact or Fiction: The Heat are a playoff team.
Elhassan: Fiction. No playoff team endured more talent loss in the conference, plus they'll be battling teams such as the Bucks and Wizards, who underachieved last season, as well as the Bulls and the Knicks, who have their own issues but will be in the conversation. Miami just isn't deep enough and doesn't feature elite talent to warrant a playoff berth.
Doolittle: Fact -- barely. I think given how weak the East looks after the top six or seven teams and the likelihood that a sub-.500 squad will get in, I like Spoelstra to make it happen for Miami. They'll get blown out by Cleveland once they get there.
Engelmann: Fiction. Making the playoffs would not have been a sure thing even with Bosh on the court. Without him, the Heat are projected to win around 36 games, about five wins less than what they will need to grab the 8th spot.
Haberstroh: Fiction. They don't have a clear starter at shooting guard or power forward, and I fail to see how their uptempo identity fits with Whiteside. I think 30 wins is more likely than 40.
Pelton: Fiction. I'm sure there are scenarios in which Spoelstra can get the most out of the limited talent on the bench and the Heat's young core improves enough to create a starting lineup good enough to win at least 40 games and earn a lower-end playoff spot. It seems much more likely that Miami will go the other direction and treat this as a rare rebuilding season.