How will Evan Fournier, Serge Ibaka, Nikola Vucevic and the Magic do in 2016-17?
Here are our player scouting reports and analysis.
Projected starters
Elfrid Payton
Position: Guard
Experience: 2 years
Age: 23
Scouting report
+ Slashing, pass-first point guard with excellent court vision and quickness off the bounce
+ Horrendous perimeter shooting undermines the rest of Payton's game
+ Good size and quickness on defense hasn't translated to consistent impact though he fares well in isolation
Analysis
In a league where shooting is valued more than ever, Payton is trying to figure how to turn his traditional point guard arsenal into one that fits with the contemporary style of play. It's very much a work in progress.
By most measures, Payton's second season was not as good as his first. That's a concerning trend for a player still in his early 20s, one projected to be a long-term solution at a premium position. His assist rate was exactly the same and his turnover rate, while still much too high, was down. Those facts points toward Payton's core problem.
That central dilemma is Payton's inability to score efficiently. He focused more of his perimeter game from the 3-point line but remained below average. From midrange Payton hit just 30.7 percent; from the corners it was 29.6. He was better around the rim, not great, but when he draws contact around the rim, his awful free throw percentage comes into play. Simply put, Payton must get better at putting the ball in the basket or he is not going to be a starting-quality NBA point guard.
Payton is a gifted passer, projected with the seventh-best assist rate in the league by SCHOENE. The turnovers are an issue but even that would perhaps be less of a problem if Payton weren't so inept from the perimeter, which allows defenses to sag off him and cut off his passing lanes.
His defensive metrics were down last season as well. His RPM on that end fell to minus-0.30 and he also suffered declines in rebounding and steals. For a player with such glaring holes in his game, Payton needs to keep his strengths at or near elite level.
This will be a big season for Payton, one that might benefit from new coach Frank Vogel and the end of his backcourt partnership with Victor Oladipo.
Evan Fournier
Position: Guard
Experience: 4 years
Age: 24
Scouting report
+ Efficient shooter and well-rounded scorer
+ Good range and accuracy on 3-point shot
+ Floor game and defense need to be upgraded
Analysis
Magic GM Rob Hennigan declared after the season that retaining restricted free agent-to-be Fournier was one of his top offseason priorities. Not only did he make good on that proclamation by inking Fournier to a five-year, $85 million deal, but he cleared some of the competition on the wing by sending Victor Oladipo to Oklahoma City. If there were any lingering doubts whether Orlando's brass views Fournier as a foundational player, they are gone.
Fournier was an improved player in 2015-16 and started a career-high 71 games for Orlando. His 3.0 WARP moved him safely above replacement level for the first time, though his RPM (minus-1.02) remained below break-even because of a poor defensive showing.
Shooting is his best attribute, as he consistently has hit 3s at a rate better than league average and, as he did last season, is capable of pushing his accuracy over 40 percent. He's got a smooth, stable stroke, but whereas he's a knockdown catch-and-release shooter when left open, he's merely average when contested. Fournier is by no means a shooting specialist and does a lot of his work inside the arc.
Fournier is a good athlete, an acceptable finisher at the rim and good in transition. He needs to improve his ability to draw contact off the dribble. Last season his foul-drawing rate was flat from the season before and SCHOENE projects him to rank 24th among shooting guards in the coming season. His assist rate projects at just 38th, and improving his ability to facilitate should be an area of focus.
On defense, Fournier is merely average on the ball and still could stand to get stronger. His help defense indicators are ho-hum, with a rebound rate that forecasts at 81st among 2-guards, his steal rate at 38th and his block rate one of the curiosities of the league. Fournier has just 12 blocked shots in his career, including only four in over 4,000 minutes the past two seasons.
The Magic can always hand the tougher defensive wing assignment to Aaron Gordon, but now that Fournier is an unchallenged full-time regular, he needs to round out his game.
Aaron Gordon
Position: Forward
Experience: 2 years
Age: 21
Scouting report
+ Elite length and athleticism with skills to become an All-NBA defender
+ Good ball skills on offense in terms of passing and decision-making
+ Awkward and inconsistent outside shooter
Analysis
Perhaps no Magic player will be more affected by the arrival of Frank Vogel as head coach than Gordon. Over the summer, Vogel said that the explosive combo forward will be his starting 3 this season. More interestingly, Vogel added that he envisions Gordon holding down a similar role to the one Paul George had in Indiana. That would mean Gordon has the ball in his hands a whole lot more often this season. And it could mean a significant leap forward for the super-athletic Gordon.
Gordon was one of the more improved players in the NBA during his second season, spending about 60 percent of his court time playing power forward, per basketball-reference.com. That will change this season with Serge Ibaka and Jeff Green on the depth chart, though Gordon will surely see minutes at the 4 in smaller lineups. Gordon's WARP went from 0.1 his first year to 5.7, and his RPM went from minus-2.52 to 0.63. That is the trajectory of a future All-Star, and he didn't turn 21 until the very end of the summer.
Gordon proved to be a capable playmaker by averaging 2.5 dimes per 36 minutes with a limited number of turnovers. With his explosive leaping ability, Gordon is an efficient finisher around the basket and draws a good number of fouls. He's not a good shooter outside of the paint and needs to make a George-like leap in that area in order to hold down the kind of role that's been suggested for him.
Gordon's defensive potential is exciting. His RPM climbed above zero last season as he learned how to discipline himself on that end. His steal rate is solid even for a 3 and his block rate (eighth among small forwards) and rebound rate (first) are elite. With his length, quickness and leaping ability, Gordon is tough to shoot over and is dynamite in isolation. And though he profiles as a combo forward, his rim protection (52.7 percent allowed at the basket) ranked third on Orlando behind bigs Dewayne Dedmon and Jason Smith.
Serge Ibaka
Position: Forward
Experience: 7 years
Age: 27
Scouting report
+ Exceptional spot-up shooter for a big man, especially from midrange
+ Has developed 3-point range but needs to improve consistency from the corners
+ Rebound rates have fallen and they need to get up
Analysis
One of the bigger gambles any team took this offseason came on draft night, when the Magic acquired Ibaka from Oklahoma City for Victor Oladipo, Ersan Ilyasova and the rights to Domantas Sabonis. Orlando GM Rob Hennigan sent away one of his own high-lottery picks (Oladipo) while he was still under his rookie contract for a player whose game showed wear and tear last season and who is entering a contract year.
It might be like the old Woody Allen bit: The Magic could be getting a player who isn't that good, and they won't be getting him long enough.
Luckily, it's premature to declare that Ibaka is in decline. After having some knee trouble in 2014-15, he logged over 2,500 minutes last season and his athletic indicators indeed appeared to be diminished. His rebound rate was a career low and his block rate, while still upper-tier, was less than half what it was five years ago. His offensive role was also more marginal.
All of these things are concerning, but they are also hard to separate from circumstance -- his role for the Thunder under Billy Donovan was different from the one he played under Scott Brooks. Whatever the explanation, Ibaka's bottom-line WARP has fallen from 22nd to 61st to 138th over the past three seasons.
At the offensive end, Ibaka's RPM has settled into around break-even. His usage rate not only slipped in 2015-16, but he didn't shoot the ball as well. He again focused more of his game spotting up from deep. His midrange game is still aces -- he's hit over 45 percent from that zone four years running. Last season, Ibaka's accuracy from the corners slipped, contributing to an overall 3-point rate that fell to 32.6 percent. Ibaka needs to shoot better if he's not going to be around the offensive glass, where his rate was a career worst.
The good news is that new Magic coach Frank Vogel intends to explore more of the full range of Ibaka's skill set. As a post player, Ibaka ranked in the top 4 percent of the league on a per-play basis (including pass-outs) according to Synergy Sports Technologies. The opportunities were limited but it's worth exploring whether Ibaka's exceptional touch inside the arc can force teams to send an extra defender his way on the low block, and while his overall assist rate is low, his passing out of the post looks promising. Keeping Ibaka down low also makes him a better frontcourt partner for Nikola Vucevic and keeps him near the offensive boards.
On defense, while Ibaka's block rate isn't as off-the-charts as it used to be, SCHOENE still gives him the 14th-highest forecast in that category. NBA.com/stats ranked him 11th in defending shots at the rim and he brings that much-needed component to Orlando. That is if his statistical decline in athleticism doesn't prove to be an actual one. But if that happens, at least it was for only one year.
Nikola Vucevic
Position: Center
Experience: 5 years
Age: 26
Scouting report
+ Versatile offensive center who is a rare high-volume scorer among big men
+ Improving as a passer and face-up shooter, allowing more of the offense to flow through him
+ Below-average defender who needs to be paired with a rim-protecting power forward
Analysis
One thing you can say about Vucevic is that his level of play is established, and whether or not that's good enough will be directly reflected in his minutes played. That's especially true on this season's Magic, where new coach Frank Vogel has a lot of options with his frontcourt. Luckily, Vucevic's inside-outside versatility as a scorer should allow him to coexist with most of Vogel's power forward options.
Vucevic is an accomplished post scorer around the basket and a fine midrange threat either as an offensive safety valve or in the pick-and-pop. He's not shy -- his projected usage rate is the fourth highest among centers -- and his efficiency is undermined a bit by poor shot selection. He likes to carry a heavy load and does, not only scoring but as a willing passer who takes good care of the ball for a player at his level of usage.
The strength of Vucevic's game is his work on the boards, though his numbers were down last season as he evolved into more of a perimeter big. He's capable of throwing up a 25-rebound game on any given night.
Overall, he's a below-average defender, with a plus-0.95 RPM on that end last season, a subpar mark for a center. According to NBA.com/stats, he allowed 54.5 percent shooting when defending at the rim, a big reason why the Magic made the move for Serge Ibaka.
Vucevic could emerge as a trade candidate this season. He's got three more years left on a very reasonable contract. The Magic signed Bismack Biyombo to help out at center, and while they are very different players, it remains to be seen who might work better with Ibaka, Jeff Green and Aaron Gordon.
Vucevic had a solid summer in international play and told reporters that he's working to extend the range of his face-up shot behind the 3-point line. Lots of players say that, but it's something to watch.
Reserves
Jeff Green
Position: Forward
Experience: 8 years
Age: 30
Scouting report
+ Up-and-down shooter who has shown proficiency from the corners
+ Struggles from midrange and has long needed to cut that out of his game
+ Tweener skill set on both ends, lacking rebounding of a starting power forward and shooting of a starting 3
Analysis
The mercurial nature of Green's game is perhaps best illustrated by his WARP totals over the past six seasons: 3.8, 0.4, 3.0, 0.2, 3.3, -0.2. On the bright side, after signing Green to a one-year, $15 million deal over the summer, the Magic might be getting him at the right time, if the pattern holds true. There is a difference between a combo forward and a tweener, and Green trends more toward the latter. Entering his age-30 season, it's not likely to change.
Green had a golden opportunity to land a multiyear deal last season in Los Angeles, where he could have emerged as an impact player on an excellent team dealing with Blake Griffin's injury. Instead, Green started just 10 of his 27 games with the Clippers and posted a PER of 12.0, all while remaining the same average-volume, low-efficiency player he's always been. In both the regular season and the playoffs, the Clippers were about five points per 100 possessions better with Green off the floor. He doesn't rebound well enough for a 4 or shoot well enough for, well, anybody.
All of this explains why Green consistently posts RPMs in the negative on both ends of the floor. He's a plus athlete when playing 4, but that hasn't translated to great metrics in transition. He has plus size when playing 3, but shot just 35.5 percent on post-ups last season, per Synergy Sports Technologies. On the Magic, Green will again play a hybrid role, coming off the bench behind Serge Ibaka.
Bismack Biyombo
Position: Center
Experience: 5 years
Age: 24
Scouting report
+ Elite rebounder and rim protector
+ Combines top help defense with very good on-ball metrics and against the pick-and-roll
+ Little offensive game beyond dunking, with poor hands leading to excessive turnovers
Analysis
Did Biyombo mail a copy of his Orlando Magic contract to Michael Jordan? Probably not, as it's never a good idea to taunt His Airness, but it had to be tempting. A year after the Hornets allowed their former lottery pick to walk, Biyombo signed a four-year, $70 million deal with Orlando this summer. It seems his playoff breakout with Toronto made Biyombo a very rich man.
After Jonas Valanciunas went down, Biyombo started 10 postseason games for the Raptors and played more than 25 minutes per contest, up from 22 during the season. He put up a 15.9 PER while averaging 13.3 rebounds per 36 minutes and shooting 58 percent from the floor. The Raptors were outscored with him on the floor, but nevertheless the Magic were sold.
During the regular season, Biyombo was the same player he'd been for Charlotte. His defensive rebounding spiked to the level of an elite specialist but he continued to get most of his hoops on dunks coming off cuts and putbacks. Biyombo has hands of stone, so you can't use him much in the pick-and-roll, and you never want to isolate him on the block. All of this is illustrated by the usage rate of a defensive specialist.
It's on that end where Biyombo really made his money. He put up a defensive RPM of plus-3.02, enough to offset his horrendous mark on the other end. Besides his elite rebounding, Biyombo can be counted on to block over 6 percent of opposing 2s, and SCHOENE sees him as one of the top 10 shot-blockers in the league.
His post defense numbers are also elite and his rim protection rate (45.2 percent, per NBA.com/stats) means that when Orlando pairs him with Serge Ibaka, the lane will be effectively sealed off.
D.J. Augustin
Position: Guard
Experience: 8 years
Age: 29
Scouting report
+ Quick, streaky small guard with good long-range accuracy
+ A flashy but often erratic passer
+ A defensive liability with limited wingspan for contesting shots
Analysis
After being traded from Oklahoma City to Denver during the 2015-16 season, Augustin played some of the best basketball of his recent career before fading a touch down the stretch. On the whole, Augustin finished with the fewest minutes played of his eight NBA seasons. But his per-possession winning percentage (.474) was his best since his Chicago days. It was enough to land a four-year, $29 million deal in Orlando, where Augustin hopes that his merry-go-round of eight teams in six years will come to a halt.
The simple explanation of Augustin's career fluctuation has usually been his 3-point shooting. Last season, he topped 40 percent, driving his true shooting percentage to 57.5, his best showing since his rookie year. His turnover rate spiked some, but that may have been a product of playing with such a young team in Denver.
Augustin's bugaboo has always been borderline-unplayable defense. His RPM on that end was less terrible -- minus-1.71 after a minus-3.24 showing the season before. His rebound, steal and block rates were all better. He's not going to be better than Elfrid Payton, the guy he'll back up in Orlando, but it's something. As ever, Augustin has to compensate for poor reach that makes him too easy to shoot over.
That said, given the potential for a high-level defense behind him, it's possible that Augustin could emerge as the crunch-time point guard for Orlando.
Mario Hezonja
Position: Guard
Experience: 1 year
Age: 22
Scouting report
+ Exciting, long-range scoring potential
+ Good athlete who runs the floor effectively
+ Needs to make better decisions about when to get aggressive
Analysis
Hezonja draws Utah's Gordon Hayward as his top statistical comparison, and that's a solid developmental trajectory for the talented Croatian to follow. He's of similar size and burgeoning skill set, though Hezonja may have more explosive raw scoring ability. He's got a long way to go, however, after finishing with minus-1.1 WARP and a minus-3.19 RPM during his rookie season.
Hezonja looks like a high-level shooter with the potential to become one of the best in the league. As a rookie, he hit more than half his 2s and shot over 90 percent from the line, while clocking in around league average from behind the arc. He's a good passer but so far walks a fine line between aggressiveness and deference. Besides his plus ability to knock down open looks, Hezonja's best trait at this point may be running the floor.
Given his length and physical skills, Hezonja needs to lock in better on defense. But you can say that about a lot of rookies. He'll be Frank Vogel's top wing option off the bench in the coming season and his defensive profile should improve in Vogel's system.
Jodie Meeks
Position: Guard
Experience: 7 years
Age: 29
Scouting report
+ Explosive long-range shooter with ability to make plays off the dribble against closeouts
+ Takes care of the ball and passes well when needed
+ Poor defender beyond the occasional skill with nonexistent rebounding ability
Analysis
When healthy, Meeks is one of the more prolific 3-point shooters around. Increasingly though, his health has come into question. After playing just three games for Detroit last season because of a broken foot, Meeks had surgery in July to stabilize a bone in his ailing right foot. The Magic have said they expect Meeks to be back not long after the start of the season, but at this point he has to be termed a question mark.
Meeks has always been more than a straight-up shooting specialist because of his off-the-bounce game. His foul-drawing forecast ranks 16th among shooting guards and he's one of the best free throw shooters in the league once he gets to the line. He's a low-turnover player whose ability to facilitate is underrated. What's not underrated is Meeks' poor defense, a trait that will always consign him to being an instant-offense reserve.
C.J. Wilcox
Position: Guard
Experience: 2 years
Age: 26
Scouting report
+ Slender, sharp-shooting wing with legitimate range and accuracy
+ Has solid shot-creation skills against aggressive closeouts
+ Defensive work in D-League appeared shaky
Analysis
Doc Rivers is usually better about praising young players than actually putting them on the court. That's how it was for C.J. Wilcox, who never got a chance to show if his shooting ability could be leveraged into a rotation role with the Clippers. In Orlando, Wilcox may have a real shot at playing time as the fourth wing if Jodie Meeks' recovery from foot surgery is slow.
Wilcox can clearly shoot, as he has hit 42.1 percent from deep during his D-League career. He has averaged over 20 points per 36 minutes at that level, so there's a certain baseline of shot creation to go with his accuracy.
SCHOENE sees him as a replacement-level performer. It will all come down to defense. Wilcox ranked in the bottom quarter of the D-League last season on a per-play basis, according to Synergy Sports Technologies.
C.J. Watson
Position: Guard
Experience: 9 year2
Age: 33
Scouting report
+ Passive offensive player who before last season converted a high rate of open looks
+ Is a point guard more by size than skill, but passing metrics have improved last couple of years
+ A below-average defender, especially when defending 2s, because of his lack of athleticism and size
Analysis
Watson got into just 33 games because of injuries and ineffectiveness last season, the worst of his career. After a five-year run of logging 2-to-3 WARP per season, Watson tumbled below replacement level in 2015-16. He hit just 29 percent from deep, as usual struggled to finish in the lane and saw his usage rate (12.2 percent) decline to unplayable for a guard. He doesn't make up for it on defense, either, where his RPM fell to minus-1.70.
On the plus side, Watson's point guard skills have been a little better the past couple of years, though he remains a shooting guard in a point guard body. Now 33, Watson's inability to create shots is a real problem and unless he returns to being aces behind the arc, it's hard to see a role for him at a crowded position on the Magic's depth chart. That said, if Watson is healthy and gets his stroke back, he can play alongside a bigger point guard like Elfrid Payton in certain configurations.
Stephen Zimmerman
Position: Center
Experience: Rookie
Age: 20
Scouting report
+ Raw 7-footer with good athleticism and reach
+ Needs to add bulk and hone a burgeoning face-up game
+ Post game needs work
Analysis
Zimmerman was once a touted prep player who ended up slipping to the Magic at No. 41 at draft time. The slender 7-footer has solid raw skills and athletic ability, though his playing time will be extremely limited at the outset playing behind traditional centers Vucevic and Biyombo.
His per-play metrics on both ends at UNLV were not convincing, as he was primarily a post player who rarely attracted a double-team and shot just 42 percent on those plays with a high turnover rate, per Synergy Sports Technologies. He did occasionally step out to the 3-point line for the Rebels, so perhaps the Magic hope he can develop some stretch ability. The raw skills are there but Zimmerman is a project.