How will Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan and Jonas Valanciunas do in 2016-17?
Here are our player scouting reports and analysis.
Projected starters
Kyle Lowry
Position: Guard
Experience: 10 years
Age: 30
Scouting report
+ Elite two-way point guard who has keyed Toronto's success
+ Good, prolific outside shooter who creates out of pick-and-roll
+ Tough defender who is effective despite small stature
Analysis
For all the talk of "skinny Lowry," he was more or less the same player as he was in the second half of 2013-14 and the first half of 2014-15 throughout a single campaign. The result was the best full season of Lowry's career, a second consecutive All-Star start, an appearance on the All-NBA third team and a spot on the USA team that won gold in Rio.
Just three point guards (and nine players total) used more than a quarter of their team's plays with true shooting percentages of .570 or better: Lowry, MVP Stephen Curry and Chris Paul. That's the company Lowry has kept recently, ranking as a top-10 player by most all-in-one value stats.
Lowry's game starts with effective 3-point shooting as a catch-and-shoot option or off the dribble (he shot 34.2 percent on such 3s, according to SportVU data on NBA.com/Stats). Lowry's 547 attempts ranked sixth in the league and he made them at a 38.8 percent clip. Since he can shoot off the dribble, defenses have to play up on the pick-and-roll, helping Lowry get into the paint. There, he's a good finisher for his size (he shot 60.2 percent inside 3 feet, per Basketball-Reference.com) who also can find open teammates on the perimeter.
Alas, the importance of Lowry's shooting was reinforced in the playoffs, when he made just 30.4 percent of his 3s, up slightly from the previous year's 21.7 percent while battling injuries. This time around, a swollen and sore elbow gave Lowry trouble, though he steadfastly refused to blame it for his slump. The big challenge for Dwane Casey and the Raptors' coaching staff will be keeping Lowry healthy and fresh for the postseason, which means cutting last year's career-high 37.0 minutes per game.
In fairness, Lowry is tough to take off the court because he's so effective at both ends. Toronto's best lineups featured Lowry alongside backup point guard Cory Joseph, which was workable because both players can defend bigger opponents. Just 6-foot, Lowry doesn't give an inch to bigger opponents, battling using his low center of gravity. He has exceptional quickness and anticipation that make him one of the league's premier thieves.
DeMar DeRozan
Position: Guard
Experience: 7 years
Age: 27
Scouting report
+ Volume scorer who maintains efficiency with high free throw rate
+ Likes playing in isolation and most comfortable shooting inside arc
+ Below-average defender with tools to be more effective
Analysis
DeRozan timed a career year well, representing the Raptors as they hosted the All-Star Game and cashing in on the new salary cap during his first foray into free agency. Toronto didn't quite max out DeRozan but came close with a five-year, $137.5 million deal that starts at the max but does not increase after 2017-18.
Last season saw DeRozan use a career-high 29.8 percent of the Raptors' plays while simultaneously improving his true shooting percentage to .550, his best mark since playing a small role as a rookie. Though he shot a career-best 33.8 percent from beyond the arc, DeRozan still isn't much of a 3-point shooter. And he still takes too many long 2-pointers, though the 24.7 percent of his shots he attempted from between 16 feet and the 3-point line was a career low, per Basketball-Reference.com.
But DeRozan's ability to score one-on-one and get to the hoop allowed him to average a career-high 8.4 free throw attempts per 36 minutes, which he made at an 85 percent clip. Those easy points prop up his efficiency, though the first two rounds of the playoffs illustrated DeRozan doesn't really have a Plan B when defenses can defend him without fouling. His true shooting percentage dropped to a dismal .462 in the postseason as DeRozan used even more of the team's plays (30.9 percent).
The focus on DeRozan's efficiency as a scorer has overshadowed a greater weakness: his defense. Toronto allowed 4.9 fewer points per 100 possessions with DeRozan on the bench last season, according to NBA.com/Stats. As a result, DeRozan ranked 78th among shooting guards in the defensive component of ESPN's real plus-minus.
The big concern with DeRozan's new contract, which takes him through age 31, is that his poor defense and shooting mean he's not capable of being an effective role player if and when he's no longer capable of being a go-to option on offense.
DeMarre Carroll
Position: Forward
Experience: 7 years
Age: 30
Scouting report
+ Veteran role player who lost much of season to knee surgery
+ Effective 3-point shooter who struggled inside arc last year
+ Quality individual wing defender capable of sliding to PF
Analysis
Fresh off signing a four-year, $60 million deal to join the Raptors, Carroll was limited to 26 games by a sore knee that ultimately required surgery. He was able to return just in time for the playoffs and started 19 of Toronto's 20 postseason games, but was limited offensively. With more than $46 million left on his contract, the Raptors will have to hope Carroll can bounce back at age 30.
Carroll faced an adjustment going from an Atlanta Hawks team that shares the ball to an isolation-heavy Toronto offense. Just 54.2 percent of his 2-point attempts were assisted, per Basketball-Reference.com, down from 72.7 percent in 2014-15. As a result, Carroll got fewer easy looks around the basket, but his decline as a finisher (from 65.7 percent inside 3 feet to 57.6 percent) might be more attributable to a lack of lift playing through the knee injury. Carroll was also forced to take too many in-between shots off the dribble and was a 27.7 percent shooter between the restricted area and the 3-point line, according to NBA.com/Stats. The one place Carroll's shooting didn't suffer in the regular season was the 3-point line, where he hit 39.0 percent before slumping to 32.9 percent in the playoffs.
Despite his struggles to score, Carroll's defense was invaluable to the Raptors during the postseason. Carroll was Toronto's only passable matchup for Paul George, and toggled between Joe Johnson and Dwyane Wade before having a tough time containing LeBron James in the conference finals. Carroll's size allowed him to slide down to power forward at times, something we may see more of this season with Luis Scola's departure.
Jared Sullinger
Position: Forward
Experience: 4 years
Age: 24
Scouting report
+ Burly big man who's most effective as a center
+ Volume scorer has yet to shoot accurately from 3-point range
+ Can't defend on the perimeter but also not a rim protector
Analysis
It was an eventful 12 months for Sullinger, who began the last season of his rookie contract in danger of falling out of the Boston Celtics' rotation but instead started a career-high 73 games. In the playoffs, however, Sullinger lost that role and played just 81 minutes in six games. After signing Al Horford, Boston pulled Sullinger's qualifying offer. He settled for a one-year deal in Toronto at the $5.6 million non-taxpayer midlevel exception. Casey said at media day that the starting power forward job is Sullinger's to lose, which will present a defensive challenge for the Raptors. He could prove a better fit backing up Jonas Valanciunas than playing alongside him.
Sullinger has good skills for a big man but has never translated them into efficient scoring. In fact, his true shooting percentage actually dropped last year to a career-low .476. Theoretically a stretch big man, Sullinger is a 27.6 percent career 3-point shooter.
Still, cutting his 3-point attempts last season was a bad idea because most of them turned into long 2-pointers. Sullinger had a worse effective field goal percentage on 2-pointers from beyond 16 feet (39.8 percent, per Basketball-Reference.com) than on 3s (42.3 percent) despite superior accuracy. He's better around the basket as a good offensive rebounder who finishes reasonably well without much lift.
Defensively, Sullinger doesn't have a position. He's too slow-footed to defend on the perimeter and blocks shots at a below-average rate for a power forward. Amir Johnson was an ideal frontcourt partner because he could guard 4s while still supplying rim protection. Sullinger is an excellent defensive rebounder, but it's a little hard to explain how those skills translate into good all-in-one value stats. Sullinger posted 5.2 wins above replacement player (WARP), third-best on the Celtics, and his plus-2.8 RPM ranked 33rd in the league last season. We'll see if Sullinger can maintain that in Toronto.
Jonas Valanciunas
Position: Center
Experience: 4 years
Age: 24
Scouting report
+ Skilled offensive center just coming into his own at age 24
+ Effective post scorer who can also be used in pick-and-roll
+ Will block shots but not really a rim protector
Analysis
With DeRozan and Lowry struggling to score, Valanciunas stepped into a larger offensive role during the first two rounds of the playoffs, averaging 15.0 points on 55.0 percent shooting before suffering a sprained ankle that sidelined him until the Eastern Conference finals. However, it's Valanciunas' defense that figures to take on paramount importance in the first season of his four-year, $64 million extension because Toronto no longer has departed backup Bismack Biyombo as a defensive-minded alternative.
As long as the Raptors' guards are using nearly 60 percent of the team's plays while on the court, Valanciunas is unlikely to play a featured role, so it might make sense for Casey to use him more with the second unit. Valanciunas has proven capable of creating his own offense in the post, where he clears space well and shot a solid 47.7 percent, according to Synergy Sports tracking on NBA.com/Stats, albeit with a high turnover rate. Valanciunas is also one of the league's best offensive rebounders and an excellent pick-and-roll finisher who shot 60.0 percent as a roll man.
Valanciunas blocks shots at an above-average rate for a center, which overstates his presence in the paint. Opponents shot 52.2 percent against him on attempts within 5 feet, per SportVU tracking on NBA.com/Stats, as compared to 45.2 percent against Biyombo. Valanciunas doesn't move particularly well to recover when pulled outside the paint and is a poor defensive center overall, albeit with the ability to improve as he gains experience.
Reserves
Patrick Patterson
Position: Forward
Experience: 6 years
Age: 27
Scouting report
+ Capable stretch-4 who has proven most comfortable as reserve
+ More of a volume 3-point shooter than a highly accurate one
+ Versatile defender who's capable of guarding smaller opponents
Analysis
Though Patterson was clearly the Raptors' best power forward option, he came off the bench throughout the regular season before starting nine games in the playoffs. If Sullinger proves unable to play alongside Valanciunas, Casey may have little choice but to start Patterson despite the fact that it breaks up Toronto's dominant reserve units.
Offensively, Patterson actually had something of a down campaign in 2015-16. While he made 106 3-pointers at a 36.2 percent clip, his second consecutive season in triple digits, Patterson scored with below-average efficiency overall because his 2-point percentage dropped to 49.0 percent. Patterson has a tough time exploding up in traffic and made just 52.5 percent of his attempts inside 3 feet, per Basketball-Reference.com. But he's capable of making the right pass and spaces the floor, which helps explain Patterson rating third in offensive RPM among power forwards, though that's surely something of a fluke.
For a stretch-4, Patterson is a good defender who can even hold his own against some wing players. The Raptors tried him at times against combo forwards like James. Patterson does well defending pick-and-rolls on the perimeter, and despite almost never blocking shots, he provides adequate rim protection using verticality. However, Patterson is a poor defensive rebounder who should be paired with someone who can control the glass.
Cory Joseph
Position: Guard
Experience: 5 years
Age: 25
Scouting report
+ Combo guard who can run an offense or play off the ball
+ Solid finisher who slumped from beyond the arc
+ Quality defender at either guard spot thanks to strength
Analysis
Toronto excelled with native son Joseph on the court last season, outscoring opponents by 6.0 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA.com/Stats. Key to that was his partnership with Lowry; with both point guards on the court, the Raptors had a plus-12.7 net rating.
Joseph's ability to play both on and off the ball makes the lineups with Lowry effective. Surprisingly, he managed that despite shooting just 27.3 percent from 3-point range, down from 36.4 percent the year before. While 2014-15 might have been the outlier since Joseph is a career 29.4 percent shooter, he's still bound to improve on last season's accuracy. My SCHOENE projection system forecasts 30.9 shooting.
Toronto was able to use the dual point guards to swing the ball from side to side and get the defense moving, and Joseph is good at attacking off the catch in those scenarios. Nearly 30 percent of his shot attempts came from within 3 feet, and Joseph made them at a solid 61.5 percent clip, per Basketball-Reference.com.
At the other end, Joseph is capable of defending bigger opponents at 6-foot-3, using strength and quickness to compensate for the size he sacrifices. Both Lowry and Joseph ranked among the top 20 defensive point guards in RPM.
Terrence Ross
Position: Forward
Experience: 4 years
Age: 25
Scouting report
+ Athletic, sweet-shooting yet inconsistent wing
+ Rarely takes advantage of above-the-rim finishing
+ Has made progress but not a reliable defender
Analysis
On paper, Ross' skill set sounds tailor-made for stardom. He's a high flyer who won the slam dunk contest as a rookie, yet is also a career 37.7 percent 3-point shooter. For whatever reason, Ross' game is much less than the sum of its parts. That has relegated him to the role of sixth man, one that is jeopardized by Norman Powell's emergence even as Ross begins a three-year, $31 million contract extension.
Offensively, Ross suffers from his difficulty creating off the dribble. He's comfortable shooting a one-dribble pull-up to counter closeouts, but anything more becomes dicey. As a result, Ross rarely takes advantage of his vertical in game situations. Just 8.6 percent of his shot attempts last season came within 3 feet, per Basketball-Reference.com.
And Ross virtually never gets to the foul line, where he's nearly an 80 percent shooter; he has averaged 1.3 free throw attempts per 36 minutes in his career. So despite his great finishing and good 3-point shooting, Ross' .551 true shooting percentage is barely better than league average (.541).
At the other end, Ross has the requisite athleticism to be a capable defender against shooting guards, and he's able to get his lanky frame around screens well. But Ross just isn't consistent enough to be counted on as a one-on-one defender or to be in the right place to provide help. And while his leaping makes him a plus shot-blocker from the perimeter, Ross is a below-average rebounder for a shooting guard.
Norman Powell
Position: Guard
Experience: 1 year
Age: 23
Scouting report
+ Second-round pick impressed with defense and outside shooting
+ Has shown ability to create own shot in summer league
+ Plays bigger than his size defensively; also effective against point guards
Analysis
The No. 46 pick of the 2015 draft, Powell started 24 games as a rookie and was one of a handful of first-year players to make a meaningful impact in the playoffs. Carroll's return likely sends him back to the bench -- they did start two games together in small lineups in the postseason -- but Powell figures to remain a key figure after a star turn at the NBA Summer League in Las Vegas.
Having played every role during four years at UCLA, Powell easily slipped into a complementary one as part of the Raptors' starting five. He used just 13.8 percent of plays with the starters, per NBAwowy.com, spending most of his time spotting up and taking more 3s than 2s. Powell shot an impressive 40.4 percent overall beyond the arc after shooting 31.4 percent in his college career, an indication he's likely to regress going forward. Playing with reserves, Powell showed more adventurousness creating his own shot, and he averaged 19.8 points per game in summer league, attacking the basket off the dribble.
Powell's biggest impact came at the defensive end. Just 6-foot-4, he comfortably guarded the tougher opponent at either wing spot when starting alongside DeRozan. Powell is strong for his size and rarely got posted up. Still, he's probably best suited using his quickness against smaller opponents. Powell was Toronto's best matchup for Monta Ellis in the playoffs and may finish games at times for his defense, pushing Carroll to power forward.
Jakob Poeltl
Position: Center
Experience: Rookie
Age: 20
Scouting report
+ Skilled center with decent athleticism for a 7-footer
+ Has good touch around the basket and range on jumper
+ Decent shot-blocker who must improve against physical play
Analysis
The NBA's first player from Austria, Poeltl saw mixed results from deciding to return for a second season at Utah. He made strides in his development, nearly doubling his scoring average and winning Pac-12 Player of the Year. Because few teams in the lottery needed a center, however, Poeltl slipped to ninth before the Raptors took him as a long-term backup for Valanciunas.
The 7-foot-1 Poeltl was one of the best post scorers in college hoops last season. His 238 points on post-ups ranked 10th among Division I players, per Synergy Sports tracking, and Poeltl shot an excellent 59.1 percent on those attempts. He did it more with touch than strength, shooting accurately on turnarounds and hooks. Since he's unlikely to get post opportunities in the NBA, Poeltl will likely spend more time in the high post. He has good court vision for a center and is an accurate free throw shooter, improving to 69.2 percent as a sophomore after hitting 44.4 percent as a freshman.
Dealing with physical play will be the biggest challenge for Poeltl, who got pushed around as a freshman and this summer in Las Vegas. He has improved his core strength but still isn't a particularly good defensive rebounder for his size. Poeltl will also be challenged to be more active defensively than he was in college, when he could stay near the hoop and contest shots. Sullinger's arrival means Poeltl may not play much as a rookie.
Lucas Nogueira
Position: Center
Experience: 2 years
Age: 24
Scouting report
+ Lanky, athletic Brazilian center who has been inconsistent
+ High-percentage finisher and lob threat off pick-and-roll
+ Overly aggressive defender who tries to block everything
Analysis
Nogueira, who goes by "Bebe," has been known more for his mop of hair than anything he's done on the court during his first two NBA seasons. That could change this year, as Nogueira will compete for backup minutes at center after Biyombo's departure.
Casey did throw Nogueira into the fire during the conference semifinals after Valanciunas went down, and the results were predictable: He committed six fouls in 21 minutes of action against the Miami Heat. The game hasn't yet slowed down for Nogueira, who thirsts for blocked shots and tends to chase shadows (or pump fakes) in the process. That takes him out of position on the defensive glass.
Offensively, Nogueira's best skill might be his leaping. He provides vertical spacing on the pick-and-roll with the threat of finishing above the rim. Of Nogueira's 28 field goals last season, 17 were dunks, according to Basketball-Reference.com, so it's no surprise he shot 63.6 percent from the field. More unexpectedly, Nogueira made a 3-pointer and attempted three of them, and he shows some ability as a passer from the high post.
Delon Wright
Position: Guard
Experience: 1 year
Age: 24
Scouting report
+ Big point guard with limited shooting range
+ Effective as scorer and passer off pick-and-roll
+ Outstanding college defender who can defend SGs
Analysis
A couple weeks after drafting Wright in the first round of the 2015 draft, the Raptors signed Joseph, consigning the rookie to the D-League much of the year. Wright was impressive there, averaging 17.9 points, 6.5 assists and 5.0 rebounds per 36 minutes, and putting up similar numbers (18 points, seven assists and five boards) in his lone start in place of a resting Lowry. But surgery to correct a shoulder injury suffered in this year's summer league likely means Wright's second year will be a wash. Since he's already 24, Toronto may not get much return on its pick.
Wright's D-League translations suggest he's ready to be a backup point guard in the league now. At 6-foot-5, Wright needs to play with the ball in his hands because he's a poor outside shooter (though he did make an impressive 36.0 percent of his 3s in the D-League). Fortunately, Wright is capable in that role. He can get to the basket off the pick-and-roll and finishes well using his size (he shot a strong 60.3 percent on 2-pointers in the D-League) while also picking out teammates.
At 6-foot-5, Wright is big enough to defend either guard spot. He's an excellent help defender from the perimeter who will block a shot and also generates steals at a solid rate. Wright can contribute on the glass as well.
Bruno Caboclo
Position: Forward
Experience: 2 years
Age: 21
Scouting report
+ Long-armed wing with defensive potential
+ Has mostly developed into a 3-point specialist
+ Blocks a ton of shots for a wing player
Analysis
Good news: Caboclo is now just two years away based on the timeline ESPN analyst Fran Fraschilla infamously laid out for him when Toronto drafted the unknown Brazilian in the first round. Bad news: At age 21, Caboclo still doesn't appear ready to contribute for the Raptors, and he now has just two years left on his rookie contract before potentially hitting restricted free agency.
Benefiting from Toronto adding a D-League franchise, the Raptors 905, Caboclo played 1,270 minutes after seeing just 62 minutes of D-League action as a rookie. That experience, along with summer league, suggests that Caboclo might not be much more than a 3-point specialist on offense. More than half of his D-League shot attempts came from downtown, with Caboclo making them at just a 33.5 percent clip. His form is smooth but Caboclo's long arms make for a slow release and also make him vulnerable to defenders reaching in when he's dribbling away from his body.
Caboclo's frame is a greater asset at the defensive end, where he has the tools to be a stopper in time. At the D-League level, Caboclo blocked shots at a better rate than the average center. The D-League translation cuts into that, but his SCHOENE projection still has Caboclo as an above-average NBA shot-blocker for a power forward, let alone a wing.
Pascal Siakam
Position: Forward
Experience: Rookie
Age: 22
Scouting report
+ Cameroon native who was WAC Player of the Year
+ Good finisher who may struggle away from basket
+ Strong shot-blocker for a power forward
Analysis
Having drafted Poeltl with the lottery pick they got from the New York Knicks in the Andrea Bargnani trade, the Raptors used their own first-round pick on Siakam, an active forward from Cameroon by way of New Mexico State. Siakam's summer league was cut short by a sprained knee suffered in Toronto's opening game in Las Vegas, and he'll likely spend much of this year in the D-League.
Siakam won WAC Player of the Year on the strength of averaging 20.2 points and 11.6 rebounds in 2015-16. A high-volume scorer, Siakam was excellent around the hoop, shooting 73.3 percent around the rim, according to Hoop-Math.com. Still, after factoring in the translation to the NBA, SCHOENE projects him as just a 48.2 percent shooter as a rookie. That will make it difficult for Siakam, who's already 22, to score efficiently.
Despite his double-digit average, Siakam actually projects as only an average NBA rebounder for a power forward. More impressive given his position were Siakam's 2.6 blocks per 40 minutes last season. He may become a secondary rim protector from the weak side and has the mobility to defend on the perimeter and against pick-and-rolls.
Drew Crawford
Position: Guard
Experience: Rookie
Age: 25
Scouting report
+ Son of longtime NBA referee Dan Crawford
+ Must improve 3-point shooting to stick
Analysis
Don't expect Crawford to get any technical fouls during the preseason. He knows better than to talk back since his father, Dan, is one of the NBA's most accomplished referees. A five-year starter at Northwestern (including a redshirt year due to shoulder surgery), Crawford spent 2014-15 in the D-League and played in Israel last year.
He has consistently been around a 35 percent 3-point shooter, which doesn't figure to translate into good enough outside shooting to make it as a role player in the NBA. Crawford is likely ticketed for Raptors 905.
Brady Heslip
Position: Guard
Experience: Rookie
Age: 26
Scouting report
+ Excellent 3-point shooter who thrived in D-League
+ Lacking NBA-caliber skill besides shooting
Analysis
The Raptors completed their training camp roster with another Canadian. Heslip attended high school in Burlington, Ontario, just outside Toronto. After three years at Baylor, where he made 301 3-pointers, Heslip spent last season playing with the fast-paced Reno Bighorns in the D-League. The high-octane style was perfect for Heslip, who made 6.6 triples per 36 minutes at a 44.3 percent clip.
However, that's about the extent of his NBA game. Heslip had 20 assists in 618 minutes and didn't record a single block. He's also a historically poor rebounder for a shooting guard. So he's more likely to continue his career in the D-League or overseas.
Yanick Moreira
Position: Center
Experience: Rookie
Age: 25
Scouting report
+ Skinny center who's not much of a shot-blocker
+ Adequate finisher around the basket
Analysis
An SMU product originally from Angola, Moreira split his first season out of college between France and Spain. At 6-foot-11, 220 pounds, Moreira is on the light side for a center but not skilled enough to play power forward in the NBA. He'll almost certainly head to the D-League.
E.J. Singler
Position: Guard-Forward
Experience: Rookie
Age: 26
Scouting report
+ Excellent 3-point shooter
+ Weak ball handler for guard; too small for small forward
Analysis
After spending training camp with the Utah Jazz, Singler started his D-League season with Utah's affiliate in Idaho but was traded to the Raptors 905 in March. He averaged 14.7 points, 7.5 rebounds and 3.7 assists in 10 games for them. That performance, which was out of line with the rest of his D-League career, earned Singler a spot in training camp.
Singler is a good enough 3-point shooter (43.5 percent career in the D-League) to succeed in the NBA. The issue is that he doesn't quite have a position. Singler isn't enough of a playmaker to be a shooting guard but is too small at 6-foot-6 to defend small forwards.
Jarrod Uthoff
Position: Forward
Experience: Rookie
Age: 23
Scouting report
+ Skinny combo forward with NCAA 3-point range
+ Good shot-blocker but does not have an NBA position
Analysis
There's little doubt that Uthoff was one of the 60 best prospects available in this year's draft. However, he passed on offers to be stashed as a second-round pick in favor of taking his chances as a free agent. After playing sparingly for the Sacramento Kings in Las Vegas, Uthoff signed a deal with Toronto that guarantees him $50,000, according to Eric Pincus of BasketballInsiders.com.