The Golden State Warriors find themselves in an odd position in some of the most prominent statistical power rankings: second place.
Eight days after the San Antonio Spurs knocked off the Warriors, the question is: How should we rank the teams heading into the playoffs?
As the Warriors chase the best regular-season record in NBA history, they're staring up at the Spurs from the No. 2 spot in ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) as well as Basketball-Reference.com's Simple Rating System and barely ahead in FiveThirtyEight's Carm-Elo rankings.
The discrepancy in the standings, which shows Golden State four games up after San Antonio's short-handed loss Saturday at Oklahoma City, and those rankings can be explained by point differential.
Because point differential is a better predictor of future wins and losses than record, statistical power rankings generally use it as a starting point. And while the Warriors' plus-11.1 differential is very, very good -- only four NBA teams have previously surpassed it -- the Spurs have a superior plus-11.7 differential.
So, does San Antonio really deserve a spot atop league power rankings? Should the Spurs be considered the league's best team approaching the playoffs?
My answer is no, because a variety of different metrics show that Golden State has been better when it's required to be.
Warriors at their best against the best
When Golden State lost at San Antonio on March 19, it was notable because it was the first time all season the Warriors had lost to one of the top five seeds in either conference. Depending on how the rest of the season plays out, it's entirely possible that Golden State will lose more games to lottery teams than opponents who make the playoffs.
In fact, the Warriors' performance has been remarkably consistent regardless of the quality of the opposition.
Only against the league's very worst teams has Golden State's margin of victory been appreciably worse. Even then, when we add the opposition's season-long point differential to the outcome of each game, it becomes even clearer that the Warriors have truly saved their best performances for the best opposition -- including their 30-point win over the Spurs at home in January.
By contrast, the Spurs have struggled against the league's best teams, going 5-6 against opponents who have won at least 60 percent of their games (a group that includes Golden State, Oklahoma City, Cleveland, Toronto and the L.A. Clippers) and getting outscored in those matchups. Adjusted for opponent quality, San Antonio has played best against teams around .500.
Warriors at their best with the game on the line
Part of the reason Golden State hasn't performed better against weak competition is that those games tend to mean fewer minutes for starters. The team's deep reserves have allowed opponents to make games look more respectable with late runs.
According to Basketball-Reference.com, the Warriors have been outscored by an average of 3.3 points in the fourth quarter when they take a lead of 15 points or larger into the final period. The Spurs have played opponents almost to a draw in these situations (minus-0.1 points per quarter). Removing this garbage time from each team's differential moves Golden State (now plus-12.4) ahead of San Antonio (still plus-11.7).
The bigger the lead, the worse the Warriors play. Seth Partnow of Nylon Calculus broke down each team's net rating per 100 possessions in fourth quarters based on the margin of the game.
In "very low" leverage situations, where the margin is greater than 21 points, the Spurs have been 31.7 points per 100 possessions better than Golden State. The teams have been similar in high-leverage situations (margin five points or fewer) and low-leverage situations (margin between 16 and 20 points), with the Warriors' huge edge in medium-leverage situations (margin between six and 10 points) making them 8.4 points per 100 possessions better on non-garbage possessions in the fourth quarter.
Looking at the entire fourth quarter includes a lot of bench lineups in even high-leverage situations. Focusing on what NBA.com/Stats defines as "clutch" situations, where the margin is five points or fewer in the final five minutes, Golden State becomes even more dominant, outscoring opponents by a preposterous 46.7 points per 100 possessions. The Spurs have the league's next-best net rating at plus-21.4 points per 100 possessions, less than half the Warriors' mark.
Over the two decades for which NBA.com/Stats has compiled clutch data, just two other teams -- the 2008-09 Cleveland Cavaliers and 2012-13 Miami Heat, both led by LeBron James -- have surpassed a plus-30 net rating in clutch situations.
While the 2012-13 Heat were able to pull off perhaps the most remarkable comeback in NBA history to win Game 6 of the NBA Finals en route to the title, Cleveland's clutch heroics didn't carry over to the playoffs. Despite James' winning 3 at the buzzer of Game 2, the 2008-09 Cavaliers were outscored in clutch situations during the Eastern Conference finals, losing two games by a single point and the series 4-2.
There's reason to believe Golden State's success might be more sustainable. After all, Warriors coach Steve Kerr has usually saved his best weapon -- the so-called "death lineup," with Draymond Green at center along with Andre Iguodala, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Harrison Barnes -- primarily for clutch situations.
Of the 149 minutes that fivesome has played together in 2015-16, per NBA.com/Stats, 64 have come in the fourth quarter, the most of any Warriors lineup. And when the death lineup has played in the fourth quarter, it has outscored opponents by an unimaginable 73.4 points per 100 possessions.
Ordinarily, I believe that thin-slicing point differential against top opponents or in clutch situations is a mistake because it reduces sample sizes. However, when all the data lines up to confirm the dominance that's evident watching Golden State win 90 percent of its games, it's worth making an exception.
No matter what point differential and the power rankings derived from it might say, the Warriors -- and not the Spurs -- are the NBA's best team.