Jennings maturing for Pistons

Editor's note: This story was written before Brandon Jennings left Saturday night's game with a leg injury.

Climbing from the depths of the lottery, the Detroit Pistons have been one of the NBA's best teams since waiving Josh Smith on Dec. 22, going 12-3. Nobody has played a bigger role in that unexpected surge than point guard Brandon Jennings, who has averaged 20.0 points and 7.2 assists per game since Smith's departure, highlighted by Wednesday night's 24 points and 21 assists (the most in the NBA this season) in a win over the Orlando Magic.

Using numbers and scouting, ESPN Insider's team of Kevin Pelton and Amin Elhassan explain why Jennings has been the biggest beneficiary of the Pistons' in-season makeover.

The numbers perspective: Jennings' hot streak

Looking at Jennings' per-game stats actually understates how well he's played over the last four weeks. Jennings has become the leader of the Detroit offense, using more than 30 percent of the team's plays, while scoring more efficiently than ever before in his career (including a .563 true shooting percentage). Only three players in the NBA have posted a higher TS% with a usage rate of 30 or more: Kevin Durant, James Harden and LeBron James. And after Wednesday's career-best performance, Jennings' assist rate without Smith would rank fifth in the league.

Best Win%, 2014-15

*post-Smith

Because of that combination of volume, efficiency and playmaking, Jennings has been playing at an All-NBA level. As the chart at right shows, his player win percentage (the per-minute version of my WARP rating, akin to PER) without Smith would rank sixth in the NBA.

Looking deeper, however, there's reason to believe that Jennings' recent level of play may not be sustainable. Remarkably, the biggest change in Jennings' shot selection has been him getting to the basket less frequently compared to when he played with Smith. Maybe that's not such a bad thing, since Jennings has historically been a poor finisher and most of those attempts have gone to high-value 3-pointers. Still, according to NBA.com/Stats, his shooting percentage by location has been far better since the move -- and better than the rest of his career.

Brandon Jennings shooting by location

If Jennings had shot his career percentages from each location since Smith's departure, he'd have scored 1.9 fewer points per game, and his TS% would drop from .563 to .508 -- about what he shot the last two seasons.

Other gains figure to be more permanent. While assisting more, Jennings is turning the ball over on less than 10 percent of his possessions over the last month, which would be the best mark of his career but not by a dramatic amount. Still, I suspect the quality of Jennings' play won't be the only point of comparison between this stretch and the first month of his career.

Jennings burst on the scene by averaging 21.9 PPG through November 2009, including a breathtaking 55-point performance against the Golden State Warriors. He was even hotter from beyond the arc that month, making an even 50 percent of his 3s. The rest of his rookie season, Jennings shot 34.3 percent beyond the arc, and his rising star quickly faded.

Is there cause for optimism that this stretch could prove longer-lasting?

Scouting take

I don't know, Kevin, I think my scouting eyes tell me a similar story to what the numbers are telling you.

First, let's delve into the positives: The absence of Josh Smith has freed Jennings to a more comfortable basketball state, where his decision-making has been more measured and less rushed.

He no longer fears that letting go of the ball means never seeing it again, meaning he's less likely to jack up shots indiscriminately. With the ball in his hands more often, the Pistons are running a ton of sets to take advantage of his above-average ability to run the pick-and-roll, mainly out of drags (screens set in transition) and "Horns" sets (two bigs high, one popping and one rolling). Jennings is an aggressive attacker coming off screens, and his quickness forces defenses to react, creating passing lanes for him to pick targets.

In the screenshot above, the Pistons run Horns with Andre Drummond and Greg Monroe both lifted high. As Jennings comes off the screen, depending on what the defense decides, Jennings can either hit Drummond rolling, Monroe high (where he can then put the ball on the floor and attack) or hit Kyle Singler in the corner should the defense collapse: it does, so he does. With the ball in his hands, Jennings is more comfortable to make the right read and execute accordingly.

Here, Jonas Jerebko has set a drag screen in transition for Jennings, who turns the corner on the not-yet-set Indiana defense. The big defender Ian Mahinmi is forced to switch onto the smaller, quicker Jennings, while his would-be help defenders (C.J. Miles in the corner, David West in the paint) are preoccupied with what their respective assignments are doing. Should the help come, Jennings has the vision and ability to deliver the ball, but since it doesn't he keeps it and drives past Mahinmi for the open layup (which he misses).

This highlights the main reason I'm not too optimistic about Jennings' ability to keep up this torrid pace: While the Pistons have put him in a position to be successful with his passing and decision-making, his effectiveness is still closely tied to his ability to make shots. The example above highlights his inability to finish consistently, and while he sports a good 3P%, he's a streaky perimeter shooter at best.

As defenses start to force him to make shots, they'll be in better position to take away his passing options until he can hit some shots again and make them react to his threat again. Even so, they'll live with their chances of a Jennings floater or layup vs. a Drummond dunk or Jodie Meeks 3-pointer.