The NBA trade season is already off to a robust start even though we're just now entering that six-week stretch before the trade deadline when transaction buzz really kicks into gear. So you'll see a lot of virtual matchmaking coming up in an effort to satiate the inner general manager in all of us. Maybe if there were an NBA-transaction version of Tinder out there, we wouldn't have to do this, but alas, there is not.
Beyond the Golden State Warriors, there are 10 other teams with a 1 percent or more shot at winning it all, and that doesn't include the Oklahoma City Thunder. That means there will be a lot of competition among contenders for veteran players who are or will emerge as options in the marketplace. This is the time of the year when GMs earn their pay, and that goes for the guys running noncontenders, as well. But for today, let's focus on the teams in the title derby and consider some key positional holes that need to be addressed.
Indiana Pacers: Small Forward
The Pacers' composite RPM for 3s is minus-1.70, no surprise for a team struggling through a season without star small forward Paul George. Though Indiana is just 14-22, the Pacers are only 1 ½ games behind Miami for the last playoffs spot in the East. It's not the kind of playoff jostling the Heat and Pacers are used to, but things change. But whereas LeBron James isn't walking through Miami's door, George is still lurking in the shadows for a team that has valiantly played through its travails. Indiana's full-season record based on point differential projects to 37 wins, which is why the Hollinger report sees the Pacers not only getting into the bracket, but doing so as a 7-seed.
That does not mean Indiana can make a splashy deal for a new wing, of course. They do have a couple of good-sized exceptions to accommodate a veteran, but there is no chance the Pacers will go over the tax line. The most likely scenario remains that Frank Vogel will muddle through with C.J. Miles, Solomon Hill, Damjan Rudez and Chris Copeland and hope that Hill in particular develops quickly.
The match: It's an internal solution, probably an improved Hill. All the players in question have negative RPMs. While this all sounds dull, I wanted to highlight this particular hole for one reason: George could return, or at least he still hasn't completely ruled out the possibility. Indiana should remain ultraconservative with the handling of its young star, but then again, we've got three months left in the regular season. So if the Pacers as constructed might get into the postseason as ostensibly a 37-win team, what happens if they add even a rusty George? What happens is a team that one of the high seeds in the East will not want to play.
Los Angeles Clippers: Wing Defender
Matt Barnes does well enough as the starting 3, providing 3-point shooting, replacement-level production and a stout plus-1.42 RPM that speaks to his intangible value. The Clippers also play a lot of small lineups to get Chris Paul, Jamal Crawford and J.J. Redick on the floor. Still, the only red blot on the Clippers' dossier is the lack of a quality defender of length on the wing aside from Barnes. Thus the Clippers have been 10.9 points better per 100 possessions with Barnes on the floor this season, per basketball-reference.com.
The match: The Clippers are hard-capped, but a minimum-salaried pickup from the veteran waivers market could be accommodated. In a vacuum, Andrei Kirilenko makes sense if he is ultimately waived by Philadelphia. However, it's been a long time since we've seen Kirilenko on the floor and effective. Luc Mbah a Moute would be ideal, but the Sixers will get plenty of offers for him, and his contract would be difficult for L.A. to accommodate. Denver's Alonzo Gee could fit, but it's not clear he'd be an upgrade. If Kirilenko is in shape, wants to play and can persuade the Sixers to set him free, he's worth a shot.
Memphis Grizzlies: Small Forward
The bloom is off the Grizzlies' rose a bit after their rip-roaring 21-4 start. Memphis has since lost five-of-nine, and over its last 10 games, the Grizzlies rank 15th in offensive efficiency and 23rd in defensive efficiency. That's not to imply that Memphis' season is headed south. It's only nine games after all, and Memphis wasn't going to win the 69 games they were on pace to win anyway. What the slump does mean, however, is that we can move on from the "if it's not broke, don't fix it" mindset, because this club has a glaring hole on the wing. We've been decrying the presence of Tayshaun Prince for a long time.
This season, he ranks 401st in WARP and has a minus-3.22 RPM, yet he's still getting 25-26 minutes per game. He's really the only pure 3 on the roster. Quincy Pondexter, Vince Carter, Courtney Lee and Tony Allen are all 6-6 or under. Allen can guard pretty much any wing, and Lee is doing fine as the starting 2-guard. But Memphis still needs a wing with length that can cut into Prince's minutes. It's perhaps the most glaring hole on any contender's roster. With Marc Gasol headed into free agency, the time for Memphis is now.
The match: It's a gamble, but I love the idea of Danilo Gallinari for the Grizzlies. Yes, he was rusty to start this season then got hurt again. It was his other knee this time, and he had surgery to fix a right meniscus tear the day before Christmas. However, Gallinari is reportedly back shooting and looking to return by the end of the month. Meanwhile, the Nuggets were using him under 20 minutes a game anyway, and they are in need of a shake-up.
So deal Prince for Gallinari. If Gallo rounds into form, then Memphis would be a more balanced and dangerous team in the playoffs. If he doesn't, you're at least weaning yourself off of Prince. Memphis would have to add salary to make the deal work and stay under the tax line, and it would likely have to entice Denver with a draft pick. But maybe not -- making this deal swaps Gallinari's deal that runs through next season for Prince's expiring pact.
On Thursday: Teams who should be sellers