#NBArank, our annual countdown of every player in the league, is a fertile source of data for statistical analysts. There's no more comprehensive overview of how players are rated, allowing #NBArank to serve as a window into what members of our ESPN Forecast panel value.
Armed with final results (no peeking!) and my projections combining my wins above replacement player statistic (WARP) and ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) for the 2014-15 season, I compared the two sets of rankings to see which player characteristics are rated higher and lower by the #NBArank panel than the statistics.
#NBArank Overvalues
1. Usage rate
No surprise here -- scoring is highly valued by #NBArank. The typical player with an above-average usage rate is rated 10 spots higher by the panel than the stats. Going through the players in the bottom 200, it's easy to find capable rebounders, defenders, shooters and even playmakers. But good luck finding a quality scorer. Not counting the injured Paul George, just two players have been ranked so far who used at least 25 percent of their team's plays in at least 250 minutes of action: Tony Wroten of the Philadelphia 76ers (No. 289) and unsigned free agent Michael Beasley (No. 341).
2. Field-goal percentage
As our Henry Abbott has noted, the statistical movement in the NBA is often less about paying attention to stats and more about paying attention to the right ones. Consider field goal percentage. Players whose shooting percentages are relatively higher than their true shooting percentages, which incorporate 3-pointers and free throws for a fuller view of offensive efficiency, tend to be somewhat overrated by #NBArank.
#NBArank Undervalues
1. Steal rate
When we rolled out real plus-minus last season, I noted steal rate was one of the characteristics it valued most highly. There's still a tendency among analysts to be skeptical of players who gamble for steals, though other types of research support their value.
That has hurt backup point guards Nick Calathes of the Memphis Grizzlies (No. 283) and Phil Pressey of the Boston Celtics (No. 413), who posted two of the league's top 10 steal rates among players with at least 1,000 minutes.
2. Free throw attempts
The flip side of the field goal percentage argument is that players who make a comfortable living at the free throw line appear to be relatively underrated by #NBArank. From an aesthetic standpoint, nobody likes players who throw themselves into contact without even trying to make a shot (*cough* James Harden *cough*), but those easy points add up.
3. Rookies
RPM creators Jeremias Engelmann and Steve Ilardi wrote last month that, based on plus-minus, few rookies help their teams much right away. The #NBArank panel took that history and last year's poor rookie class to heart -- perhaps too much. While we're not quite halfway through the countdown of the league's top 500 players, just 11 rookies remain to be unveiled. On average, players drafted last June ranked about five spots lower on #NBArank than in the statistical rankings.
In particular, #NBArank seems to be down on the late first round, putting picks like C.J. Wilcox (No. 421), Rodney Hood (No. 379) Jordan Adams (No. 370) and even T.J. Warren (No. 369) in among replacement-level free agents. It's unclear how much those rookies will play, especially with several going to contending teams, but odds are at least one of them will become a contributor right away.
4. Philadelphia 76ers
Given that the Sixers might be less talented than last season, when they tied the NBA record by losing 26 consecutive games, it's understandable that just two Philadelphia players are among the #NBArank top 250. Many of the 76ers' players are replacement level or worse, and one of the team's best talents (No. 3 overall pick Joel Embiid) is unlikely to play this season, explaining his No. 398 rating.
Still, #NBArank seems to be holding some Philadelphia players guilty by association. Hollis Thompson (No. 420) was a competent starter last season, and Henry Sims (No. 407) was highly productive after the trade deadline, yet both ranked in the 400s. And through little fault of his own, second-round rookie K.J. McDaniels (No. 395) ranked behind Minnesota Timberwolves forward Glenn Robinson III (No. 361), who was taken eight picks later and is unlikely to play nearly as much this season.