Ever since LeBron James and Dwyane Wade joined forces in 2010, the seedy underbelly of analysis argued that the Miami Heat were better without Wade. The first sign of adversity signaled that James and Wade, as two ball-dominant superstars, couldn't coexist. It was a fractured relationship, beyond repair.
Of course, those theorists have been proved dead wrong over the past four years.
Except for in last year's Finals. Turns out Wade and James were mostly powerless together against the San Antonio Spurs.
In the Finals, the Heat played 230 minutes with James and Wade on the floor together and got blown out by 57 points. The Spurs destroyed them with that star duo on the court. But in a bizarre display of symmetry, in the 71 minutes that James played without Wade, the Heat outscored the Spurs by 57 points.
Minus-57 with James and Wade.
Plus-57 with James, no Wade.
The key to the 2014 rematch will be whether Wade's ineffectiveness in 2013 was a one-year fluke or a trend that the Spurs can exploit. Indeed, Wade was limping to the finish line with troublesome knees. As the Spurs packed the paint, he morphed into a jump-shooter. With little confidence and strength in his legs, he turned into a shell of himself.
A compromised offense
The Heat hope that Wade is better-equipped to handle the same coverage should the Spurs decide to abandon the perimeter. Offensively, the Heat were compromised without an extra 3-point shooter on the floor. With James and Wade on the court, the Heat mustered just 99.5 points per 100 possessions in the Finals, which is the output we might expect of an NBA cellar dweller, not the defending champs. The Heat were diffused and their shooting percentages rotted.
However, that all changed when Wade stepped off the floor.
It was only when the Heat took Wade off the floor that they began to look like themselves. With Ray Allen by his side, James saw new driving lanes and fought his way to the basket. It was stunning to watch what a Hall of Fame 3-point shooter can do to decongest the paint. James was virtually automatic; he missed one layup the entire series without Wade on the floor. James shot a baffling 14-for-15 (93.3 percent) inside five feet.
But with Wade on the court? That close-range shooting percentage plummeted to 52.8 percent (19-for-36), or nearly sliced in half.
All in all, James saw his per-36 minute averages sink to 18.8 points, 5.3 assists and just 4.1 free throws with Wade on the court. With an extra Spur sagging in the paint, James shot 41.1 percent from the floor and became painfully tentative with his 3-point shot. James' averages with Wade off the court? He scored 28.9 points, dished out 7.6 assists, pulled down 9.6 rebounds and accrued 6.6 free throws per 36 minutes while shooting 53.5 percent from the floor. In other words, James was the MVP again.
Will this year be different?
Wade now appears to have his scoring faculties in order. And when he's playing like this, he can play next to anyone.
Entering the 2013 Finals, Wade had put up just two 20-point outings in 15 postseason games. Two. And he'd never had more than 21 points. But so far this postseason, Wade has slalomed his way to five 20-point outings in his past nine games. The 28-game absence in the regular season as part of the Heat's maintenance program appears to have paid off. He has averaged 18.7 points per game this postseason in fewer minutes, compared to just 15.9 points last postseason.
Wade has often said that his jump shot is the barometer for his health. When he has his legs underneath him, he can get better lift on his jumper and his shot mechanics stay sound. So far, so good. Wade has seen much better success with his jump shot, which could prove to be pivotal in this series. He's shooting 45 percent on his jumpers according to Basketball-Reference.com shooting data whereas that was just 39 percent last postseason.
But the Heat must be careful here. Wade has become oddly reliant on his 3-point shot, an area of his game that had been in hibernation until only recently. In the Pacers series alone, he shot 13 3-pointers and made six of them. After the All-Star break in the regular season, Wade took just nine 3-pointers and missed them all. For his career, he is a 28.9 percent 3-point shooter on 1,211 attempts. In NBA history, only Charles Barkley has shot worse than Wade with as many 3-point attempts (26.6 percent).
The Spurs are smart, and they will likely tempt Wade to continue firing up from downtown, so trusting the sample size over the long term will prevail. Wade didn't take a 3-pointer in the Finals last year, but the Spurs might hope that changes.
The Mike Miller factor
It might end up being that the Heat will thrive once again with James surrounded by 3-point shooters. With Allen and Mike Miller on the floor next to James, the Heat outscored the Spurs 188-135 in 71 minutes, with a preposterous offensive rating of 139.6 points per 100 possessions. Recreating that magic will be essential for the Heat regardless of whether Wade is feeling healthy or not.
Who fills Miller's role will be an interesting dynamic to monitor, but the notion that Miller rescued the Heat in the series isn't entirely accurate. After a few scorching-hot performances in Games 1-3, Miller was inserted into the starting lineup for Game 4 when the Heat tied up the series at 2-2. But what often gets left out of the picture is that Miller was held scoreless for three of his four starts.
The Heat have been much better this postseason with Wade and James playing together. They've outscored opponents by 51 points with that tandem on the floor, and there haven't been any screams about their on-court chemistry. Indeed, Wade looks healthier, but don't discount one theory that the Heat have added an additional floor-spacer to their James-Wade lineups. His name? Chris Bosh.
In last year's Finals against the Spurs, guess how many 3-pointers Bosh made? Zilch. This postseason, he's made 1.7 3-balls per game and at a 41 percent clip. Bosh can help Heat fans forget about Miller's departure, and pulling Tim Duncan out of the paint will make it easier for Wade and James to do their work. While it's true that Rashard Lewis and Shane Battier can fill the Miller role to some degree, much of the burden will fall on Bosh spacing the floor better than he did last Finals.
The Heat were able to overcome the James-Wade struggles last postseason. Wade had a monstrous Game 4 to revitalize the Heat after a 36-point blowout in Game 3. But on balance, the Heat were compromised when they played James and Wade together.
Ultimately, the Heat were able to squeak by in seven games (the Spurs actually outscored the Heat in the series), but the Spurs are better this time around. The Heat had better hope the James-Wade partnership is better, too, because it will be tested.