Last week, in the wake of the San Antonio Spurs' blowout win in Game 2 of the Western Conference finals, our J.A. Adande wrote that wing Danny Green "defines the Spurs." Green ended up defining the difference between the first two games of the series, both lopsided San Antonio victories, and the Oklahoma City Thunder's dominant Game 3 victory on Sunday back at home.
After scoring 37 points and shooting 11-of-15 from 3-point range in the first two games of the series, Green was unable to repeat his hot shooting in Oklahoma City. After making his opening two shots, both 3s, Green missed nine of his next 10 attempts and scored just two points the rest of the game.
The connection between Green's slump and his team's shouldn't be surprising. Green's performance serves as a bellwether for the Spurs' offense as a whole. And if San Antonio is to rebound in Tuesday night's Game 4, it will probably require finding a way to get Green going.
The Green indicator
In the three seasons he has been a starter, Green's production from 3-point range has tracked the Spurs' success and failure as a team. Check out their winning percentage by Green 3-pointers:
While the odd spike when Green hits precisely one triple has been more pronounced, the effect has been even stronger in 2013-14. Including the playoffs, San Antonio has gone 10-7 (.588) when Green is held without a 3-pointer. But when Green has knocked down at least three 3-pointers, the Spurs have been almost unbeatable this season -- 24-1 (.960), including 4-0 in the playoffs with an average margin of victory of 24.3 points per game.
Because San Antonio has so many weapons, the Spurs are tough to beat when any one individual plays particularly well. However, this effect is strongest for Green and fellow wing Kawhi Leonard. San Antonio is 20-3 (.870) when Leonard makes more than one 3-pointer this season. The relationship makes sense because the causation runs in both directions. Both players rely on the open looks from beyond the arc the Spurs' offense generates when it's humming at its best.
That's particularly true of Green, who creates few of his own shots. Green was assisted on 83.5 percent of his field goals during the regular season, per Basketball-Reference.com, ranking him eighth in the league among players with at least 500 field goal attempts. Reserve guard Marco Belinelli was the only other San Antonio player to be assisted on more than two-thirds of his makes.
Synergy Sports' tracking suggests that Green is actually a relatively better shooter compared to his peers when he's defended. Still, like all players, his shooting percentages decline quickly against better defensive pressure. According to Synergy, Green's effective field goal percentage (valuing 3-pointers as 1.5 field goals) on unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers is 63.2 percent. That drops to 51.9 percent on guarded catch-and-shoots, and all the way to 44.7 percent on jumpers off the dribble.
Oklahoma City clamps down
Naturally, Green's big efforts in the first two games of the series included a lot of easy opportunities. Of his 17 non-layups in those games, I'd consider 10 of them to be open catch-and-shoot jumpers where he was able to shoot in rhythm. That changed in a big way during Game 3, as the return of Serge Ibaka closed off the paint to Tony Parker's penetration and Oklahoma City's move to start Reggie Jackson put the more attentive Jackson on Green rather than Russell Westbrook, who has a tendency to roam defensively.
Of Green's 12 shots on Sunday, I'd consider only three open catch-and-shoot opportunities. Two of them, and both made 3s, came within the first five minutes of the game. Green knocked down a 3 coming off a screen on San Antonio's third possession -- which color analyst Steve Kerr sagely noted was a "great sign for the Spurs" -- and then got his best look of the game off a steal and transition opportunity moments later.
The only other open catch-and-shoot look Green got during the ensuing 3½ quarters was a shot outside his usual comfort zone, a midrange bank attempt generated as the screener in a pick-and-roll. Besides that, the Thunder did a terrific job of forcing Green to put the ball on the ground with hard closeouts, taking him out of his rhythm and causing him to force shots.
One sequence in particular symbolized Green's frustrating evening. Midway through the third quarter, Green appeared to have an open look from the corner when Parker was able to get in the paint and draw Jackson's attention. But Jackson recovered quickly enough to contest the shot and force a miss. Teammate Tiago Splitter secured the offensive rebound and dished to Green, who had cut to the hoop, only to see Ibaka swat away his layup attempt.
Bad memories of 2012
The poor shooting from Green on Sunday was particularly troubling because it was so reminiscent of the 2012 conference finals matchup between these teams, when Oklahoma City won the last four games after falling into a 2-0 hole. Although Green never shot the ball well in that series, he was a complete non-factor during the Thunder's wins, to the point where he played less than eight minutes total in Games 5 and 6. In the last four games, Green shot 4-of-15, including 2-of-11 from beyond the arc.
Green's struggles symbolized the inability of the Spurs' role players as a whole to contribute as the series slipped away. During the four losses, only one player outside the trio of Parker, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili -- veteran Stephen Jackson -- averaged more than 7.0 points per game.
Though Parker played poorly, Game 3 looked much the same as 2012. San Antonio's three veteran stars scored as many points (48) as in Game 2 (47). But the rest of the roster, which had averaged 64 points in the two wins at home, scored just 49 points -- 19 of those in those coming in the fourth quarter, when coach Gregg Popovich conceded.
Certainly, Green wasn't the only culprit. Leonard and reserve Boris Diaw combined to shoot 7-of-21 from the field and missed all six of their 3-point attempts, while none of the Spurs' other role players stepped up. But if history is a guide, the revival of the San Antonio offense will probably have to prominently feature Green. If Parker can find seams in the Oklahoma City defense and draw the help that leaves Green open, the Spurs can head home a game away from a return to the NBA Finals. If Green is again forced to create for himself off the dribble, odds are the Thunder will tie up the series.