The NBA trade deadline is about a month away, and the next few weeks are going to be a time rife with uncertainty for the New York Knicks. The rumor mill already has begun to churn, and increasingly it's Carmelo Anthony being discussed as a trade candidate. The building speculation makes sense. If the Knicks think that Anthony will leave them this summer, and they struggle over the next few weeks, wouldn't it make sense to deal their best player for the kind of assets that can fuel a rebuild?
Perhaps, but it's not so simple. This is not a repeat of 2010-11, when the notion of the Denver Nuggets losing Anthony seemed so potentially traumatic that the idea of an NBA version of the NFL's franchise tag was being floated. And though Anthony has played the best basketball of his career in New York, the paradigm has shifted. His time with the Knicks has demonstrated what should have been apparent all along, namely that an ultra-high-usage scoring star with questionable efficiency is not the kind of player who turns mediocrity into excellence.
Nevertheless, if the Knicks shop Anthony, they will be looking for the kind of assets they sent away to Denver in the Melo trade. But for a team to send that kind of haul New York's way, it would have to view Anthony as the Knicks did three years ago -- as a franchise savior. It's unlikely there are many, or any, general managers across the NBA who view Anthony in that light any more.
The hypothetical team that now takes an interest in Anthony will view him as a final piece (think Pippen, not Jordan). The offers the Knicks could expect will be predicated on this fundamental: No contending team will want to send out so many assets for Anthony that it crumbles the foundation already in place. The Knicks may find a lot of dead ends if they go searching for a trade partner.
This is of course complicated by the fact that Anthony can opt out of his contract after the season, so any team dealing for him would want assurances that he'd be more than a two-month rental. In fact, after establishing the various criteria that seems essential for any potential Anthony trade, I was left with the conclusion that there is really only one logical trade destination for Melo: the Chicago Bulls.
The Bulls?
The Bulls of course would only be targeting Anthony in an effort to avoid the competition they'd face this summer if he hits the open market. And the iffy part of the scenario from Anthony's perspective is that he'd have to agree that Derrick Rose is the kind of star he wants to play next to. Given the reality of Rose's injury situation, that's a giant wild card. The Bulls are operating under the conviction that Rose will eventually jump right back onto his Hall of Fame trek. And if he does that, then the presence of Joakim Noah, Jimmy Butler and coach Tom Thibodeau would provide a new star pairing with the kind of defensive foundation that wins championships.
The Bulls are rich in future assets. Few teams have more, and the ones that do aren't likely to be suitors for Anthony. Here's a basic version of what would surely be a complex transaction: The Bulls get Anthony while the Knicks receive Carlos Boozer as trade ballast, Taj Gibson, the rights to Nikola Mirotic and a couple of first-round draft picks.
That's an impressive haul for the Knicks, especially given the new pessimism about Anthony's franchise-player status. This package would jump-start a rebuilding effort in New York, as the Knicks could build around the Bulls' assets, or parlay them into more win-now talent. From top to bottom, it's hard to imagine the Knicks landing a better return.
That's also why the bigger question is why the Bulls would pursue such a path. A Rose-Anthony lineup would be filled out by Noah, Butler and a forward to be named. To build around that, Chicago would have to hope that Anthony won't be seeking max money on his next contract. An insistence on doing so would pretty much eliminate this notion of Anthony being the guy to put a team over the top. Even so, the Bulls would have to be more willing to pay luxury-tax money than they've shown in the past.
On the court, a Rose-Anthony combination can work in much the same way the Kevin Durant-Russell Westbrook tandem has flourished in Oklahoma City. Anthony could still be the top scoring option; to say he needs to be on a team where he's not the best player is different from saying he shouldn't be the leading scorer. Scoring is and always will be Anthony's strong suit. However, Rose would be the primary on-court decision-maker, and he'd have many more options when paired with a teammate who also draws double-teams.
Filling out the lineup with elite defenders and low-usage offensive players such as Noah and Butler is ideal as you would have a tough time picking two players off any roster better suited to play alongside Anthony and Rose. Then there's this: The Bulls' 2014 offseason Plan A has always been about finding that wing man to go with Rose. If Anthony is willing to be that man, he's the second star the Bulls have been seeking.
Anthony's pretty good, but …
Anthony would have to evolve, but he's shown a grudging willingness to do so with the Knicks. This season, he's rebounding the ball at a much higher rate than ever before and he has drastically cut down on turnovers. Anthony's PER of 23.5 shows an increasing awareness of efficiency. Nevertheless, through it all, Anthony is pretty much the same All-Star, high-scoring player we've always known. And that kind of player, historically, has not been a championship player.
Among players with at least 10,000 career minutes, a usage rate of at least 30 percent and a career PER less than 23.0 (Anthony's is 20.9), you find only four matches to go with Anthony: Allen Iverson, John Drew, Dominique Wilkins and George Gervin. There's not a championship to be found in that group.
That doesn't mean Anthony can't adapt. This is his 11th season in the NBA, and he turns 30 in about four months. Given the tenor of his comments from recent days, Anthony sounds like a player ready to try something different.
What/who works with Anthony
While the high-scoring group has gone without a title, there have been some trips to conference championships, which has been Anthony's ceiling to date. The Nuggets and Knicks have tried numerous combinations over the years in an effort to find the perfect blend to complement Anthony. I put together an analysis of all the lineup combinations in which Anthony has appeared (1,726 of them through the end of last season), and conclusions were intuitive: His best lineups have included multiple defense-first players, and a secondary offensive creator.
But you can't help but notice the absence of one kind of lineup from Anthony's dossier: The one in which he is not the best player. It's uncertain whether Rose can be that player. However, if things continue to go awry in New York, the Knicks and Bulls may find that they need each other.